How will the retail riots evolve? Xiaomo: retail investors want to withdraw, Goldman Sachs: retail investors have plenty of ammunition

美国散户投资者与机构之间的竞争已从一场闹剧逐渐升级，甚至引发人们对其是否会导致美国股市崩盘的担忧。高盛和摩根大通对下一步的发展有不同的看法。

The competition between retail investors and institutions in the United States has gradually escalated from a farce, and even raised concerns about whether it will collapse the US stock market. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have different opinions on how things will go next.

高盛认为，美国的散户投资者仍有充足的弹药：

Goldman Sachs believes that retail investors in the United States still have plenty of ammunition:

2000年，在美国股市见顶之前，美国家庭信用卡债务规模上升了5%，而支票存款规模则下降了。

In 2000, before U.S. stocks peaked, the size of U.S. household credit card debt rose by 5%, while the size of checking deposits declined.

2020年的趋势正好相反。去年，美国信用卡债务规模下降10%以上，支票存款规模增加4万亿美元，储蓄规模增加5万亿美元。

The trend in 2020 is the opposite. Last year, the scale of credit card debt in the United States decreased by more than 10%, the scale of checking deposits increased by $4 trillion, and the scale of savings increased by $5 trillion.

除了弹药，高盛（goldmansachs）的经济学家预计，未来几个月将有超过1万亿美元的额外金融支持，包括新一轮直接支票补贴。

In addition to the ammunition, economists at Goldman Sachs expect more than $1 trillion in additional financial support in the coming months, including another round of direct check subsidies.

虽然目前净融资融券规模占美国股市价值的0.9%，但在2000年相当于1%。然而，过去12个月保证金债务增长35%，与1999年150%的增长相形见绌。

Although the scale of net margin borrowing currently accounts for 0.9% of the value of the US stock market, it is equivalent to 1% in 2000. However, the 35% increase in margin debt over the past 12 months dwarfs the 150% increase in 1999.

摩根大通认为，未来，来自散户投资者的资本流动将减少：

JPMorgan believes that in the future, the capital flow from retail investors will be reduced:

本周系列事件带来的主要市场启示，并非来自某些小盘股的空头回补或部分对冲基金的潜在亏损，而是来自未来零售资金流可能放缓，这是11月以来市场反弹的重要动力之一。

The main market revelation brought about by this week's series of events does not come from the short covering of certain small stocks or the potential losses of some hedge funds, but from the possible slowing down of retail capital flow in the future, which is one of the important driving forces for the market rebound since November.

零售集团的波动性和保证金要求大幅上升，这可能会伤害从前几周的积极势头中获利的散户投资者。

The volatility and margin requirements of retail conglomerates have risen sharply, which could hurt retail investors who gained from the positive momentum of previous weeks.

这些损失可能反过来导致未来散户整体资金流入放缓，削弱对股市的重要支撑。因此，监控美国散户投资者的整体资金流动对未来市场走势非常重要。

These losses may, in turn, lead to a slowdown in the overall capital inflow of retail investors in the future, weakening an important support for the stock market. Therefore, monitoring the overall capital flow of retail investors in the United States is very important for the future market trend.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210131/20210131A01SR300.html

update time：2021-02-01 10:51:22