A thousand gold cannot buy thirteen incense

为什么苹果的表现如此理想，但为什么投资者仍然不买账？

Why is Apple's performance so ideal, but why do investors still not buy it?

关键是：千金买不到十三香。每个人都必须排队购买iPhone13。

The key is: a thousand gold can't buy thirteen incense. Everyone has to line up to buy the iPhone 13.

苹果再次面临缺货问题

Apple once again faces the problem of out of stock

毫无疑问，苹果本季度两位数的增长无疑是相当理想的。然而，苹果本季度的大幅增长不仅早于华尔街的预期，而且可以被视为理所当然；如果没有两位数的同比增长？据估计，可能会出现恐慌性抛售。

Undoubtedly, Apple's double-digit growth this quarter is undoubtedly quite ideal. However, Apple's sharp growth in this quarter is not only earlier than Wall Street's expectations, but also can be taken for granted; If there is no double-digit year-on-year growth? It is estimated that there may be panic selling.

为什么？如果你还记得我去年在"iPhone晚了，苹果头痛"一文中的分析，你会记得我当时提到：iPhone 12的发布因去年的流行而推迟，因此iPhone 12的销量没有在去年第四季度计算，导致去年收入减少约70亿美元（下图中的浅蓝色方块），同比仅增长1.03%。假设iPhone 12去年没有延期，苹果去年的总收入将约为717亿美元，那么本季度的增长率将从28.8%变为16.2%。

Why? If you remember my analysis in "iPhone is late, Apple has a headache" last year, you will remember that I mentioned at that time: the launch of iPhone 12 was delayed due to the epidemic last year, so the sales volume of iPhone 12 was not calculated in Q4 last year, resulting in a decrease of about $7 billion in revenue last year (light blue square in the figure below), an increase of only 1.03% year-on-year. Assuming that the iPhone 12 was not extended last year, Apple's total revenue would be about $71.7 billion last year, and then the growth rate in this quarter would change from 28.8% to 16.2%.

换句话说，只要苹果在本季度表现正常，即使罗哈默成为苹果的首席执行官，它也可以实现两位数的增长。

In other words, as long as apple plays normally in this quarter, even if Luo hammer becomes Apple's CEO, it can also hand over double-digit growth.

然而，由于全球芯片短缺，苹果本季度无法正常运营。丢失已久的"缺货"问题再次困扰着苹果。

However, Apple could not play normally in this quarter because of the global chip shortage. The long lost "out of stock" problem plagued Apple again.

但苹果的问题不仅仅在于此。事实上，整个行业都预计全球芯片短缺可能会持续到2023年（有关详细信息，请参阅我的书《苹果也缺乏核心，这是一场长期潜伏的时代危机》）。因此，华尔街不仅预计苹果无法在短时间内解决短缺问题，连苹果自己也在一次电话会议上承认，苹果在下一季度仍然有限，影响程度将在本季度超过60亿美元。

But Apple's trouble is not just that. In fact, the whole industry expects that the global chip shortage is likely to last until 2023 (for details, please see my book "Apple also lacks core, which is a long latent era crisis"). Therefore, not only does Wall Street expect apple to be unable to solve the shortage problem in a short time, but even apple itself admitted in a conference call that apple is still limited in the next quarter, and the degree of impact will exceed $6 billion in this quarter.

你知道，苹果是一家硬件公司。他们近80%的收入来自芯片相关产品。没有芯片，就等于打破了苹果的谷粒通道。因此，一群华尔街分析师聚集在库克和首席财务官梅斯特里周围，召开电话会议，询问有关供应链的情况。一些分析人士说得更像这样：

You know, apple is a hardware company. They have nearly 80% of their revenue from chip related products. Without a chip, it is equivalent to breaking the grain canal of apple. Therefore, a group of Wall Street analysts gathered around cook and chief financial officer Maestri in a teleconference to ask about the supply chain. Some analysts spoke more like this:

库克，当确切的需求被推迟，可能会丢失时，我想知道你为什么能如此放心。虽然你认为这是供应链的瓶颈，但毕竟，你曾经是首席运营官，并且你处理过很多类似的工作。你是因为目前的情况会在12月的需求高峰期间得到缓解吗？或者你有没有看到任何缓解的迹象？

When the exact needs are delayed and may be lost, cook, I wonder why you can be so relieved. Although you think this is the bottleneck of the supply chain, after all, you used to be the chief operating officer, and you have handled a lot of similar work. Are you because the current situation will ease during the peak demand in December? Or do you see any signs of relief?

然而，库克对芯片的缺乏无能为力。他表示，苹果在高端高级处理芯片（前沿节点，即iPhone的A15和MAC的M1）方面没有遇到问题。他们缺少的主要是低端成熟的工艺芯片（遗留节点，即模拟芯片和电源管理芯片）。因此，他们无法控制供应，不得不与许多不同的公司抢购芯片，也无法预测芯片何时能保证稳定供应。

However, cook is quite powerless on the lack of chips. He said that apple did not encounter problems with high-end advanced process chips (leading edge nodes, i.e. A15 for iPhone and M1 for MAC). What they lacked was mainly low-end mature process chips (legacy nodes, i.e. analog chips and power management chips). Therefore, they could not control the supply and had to rush to buy chips with many different companies, It is also impossible to predict when the chip will ensure stable supply.

不过，库克对下一季度的表现非常乐观。他指出，苹果目前的供应链状况实际上比9月至10月要好得多。问题是需求的增长远远大于供给的恢复。因此，即使他认为苹果12月份的供应限制将大于本季度，他也相信苹果仍能实现同比增长，并在下一季度创造新的收入记录。

Nevertheless, cook is very optimistic about the performance of the next quarter. He pointed out that the current situation of Apple's supply chain has actually been much better than that from September to October. The problem is that the growth of demand is far greater than the recovery of supply. Therefore, even if he believes that Apple's supply limit in December will be greater than this quarter, he believes that apple can still achieve year-on-year growth and create a new revenue record in the next quarter.

为什么？请继续下面的分析。

Why? Please continue with the analysis below.

看起来卖得很好，但是很贵

It seems to sell well, but it's just expensive

苹果公司呢？它的iPhone销量正处于短缺状态？从数据来看，iPhone的收入增长率高达47%，性能无疑是非常理想的。此外，根据IDC的数据，全球智能手机出货量同比下降16.0%，全球前五大手机同比下降，但iPhone除外，后者实现了11.2%的增长。

What about Apple, which is in shortage, just in iPhone sales? From the data that iPhone revenue growth rate is as high as 47%, the performance is undoubtedly very ideal. Moreover, according to IDC data, global smartphone shipments fell by 16.0% year-on-year, and the top five global mobile phones fell year-on-year at the same time, except for the iPhone, which achieved an increase of 11.2%.

但老实说，本季度iPhone的供应严重受限，导致销售不佳——本季度iPhone出货量增长率中存在大量水分，这是由于去年iPhone 12的延迟。

But to be honest, the iPhone supply is seriously limited this quarter, resulting in poor sales - there is a lot of water in the iPhone shipment growth rate this quarter, which comes from the delay of iPhone 12 last year.

然而，本季度仅售出5040万部iPhone。可以看出，如果iphone12去年没有延期，那么与去年同期相比，本季度iPhone的销量实际上是下降而不是上升。

However, only 50.4 million iPhones were sold this quarter. It can be seen that if the iPhone 12 had not been postponed last year, the iPhone sales in this quarter actually decreased rather than increased compared with the same period last year.

然而，尽管iPhone在本季度的销量并不令人满意，但它仍然实现了47%的巨大收入增长；可以看出，尽管iPhone在本季度销量不好，但平均售价仍在继续上涨。

However, despite the unsatisfactory sales of iPhone in this quarter, it still achieved a huge revenue growth of 47%; It can be seen that although the iPhone did not sell well this quarter, the average selling price continued to rise.

大中华区发展的背后

Behind the growth of Greater China

近年来，苹果一直缺乏新的增长点，因此他们用尽了各种方法来开拓新市场。一个重点是新兴市场。库克在电话会议上指出，2021年，苹果在新兴市场取得了相当出色的业绩，近三分之一的收入来自新兴市场，印度和越南的业务增长翻了一番。

In recent years, Apple has been suffering from the lack of new growth points, so they have exhausted various ways to explore new markets. One focus is emerging markets. Cook pointed out in the conference call that Apple achieved quite excellent results in emerging markets in 2021, nearly one-third of their revenue came from emerging markets, and the business growth in India and Vietnam doubled.

然而，在本季度顺利发布iPhone13之后，上一季度的悬崖式下滑今天实现了83.3%的同比飙升。

However, after the smooth launch of iPhone 13 in this quarter, the cliff like decline in the last quarter achieved a year-on-year surge of 83.3% today.

尽管去年苹果发布了令人惊叹的苹果硅，但使用苹果硅的Mac和iPad也没有辜负人们的期望。根据Maestri在电话会议上的数据，MAC在本季度的销量创下了苹果历史上的最高记录，MAC和iPad的大约一半客户是该产品的新用户。可以看出这个产品真的很吸引人。

Although last year Apple released the amazing Apple silicon, the Mac and iPad using apple silicon also lived up to expectations. According to Maestri in the conference call, the sales volume of MAC in this quarter hit the best record in Apple's history, and about half of the customers of MAC and iPad are new users of the product. It can be seen that this product is really very attractive.

自2020年第二季度以来，由于疫情带来的业务形势多变，苹果公司没有发布下一季度的绩效指南。本季度的收益报告也是第七份没有为下一季度提供业绩指导的报告。

Since the second quarter of 2020, Apple has not released performance guidelines for the next quarter because of the changeable business situation brought by the epidemic. This quarter's earnings report is also the seventh one that did not provide performance guidance for the next quarter.

尽管苹果没有提供明确的绩效指导，正如奥丁早些时候所说，但他们表示，供应链在下一季度将继续受到限制，影响金额将在本季度超过60亿美元；此外，由于零部件价格上涨，预计毛利率将略有下降，约为41.5%~42.5%（本季度为42.2%）。

Although apple did not provide clear performance guidance, as Odin said earlier, they said that the supply chain will continue to be limited in the next quarter, and the amount of impact will exceed $6 billion in the current quarter; Moreover, due to the rise in component prices, the gross profit margin is expected to drop slightly to about 41.5% ~ 42.5% (42.2% in this quarter).

尽管如此，库克相信，在下一个季度，随着需求的增长，他仍然可以实现同比增长，并创造收入记录。库克的声明似乎有点含糊不清，但奥丁相信，苹果将在下一季度实现两位数的收入增长，而不会出现重大变化。关键是iPhone的平均价格飞涨。

Nevertheless, cook believes that in the next quarter, he can still achieve year-on-year growth with rising demand and create a revenue record. Cook's statement seems a little vague, but Odin believes that Apple will achieve double-digit revenue growth in the next quarter without major mutations. The key is the soaring average price of the iPhone.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20211030/20211030A0914V00.html

update time：2021-10-31 18:57:54