Meituan's profit guaranteed by "stock speculation": it has made 6.3 billion yuan, 90% of which depends on investment

这是一份特别的财务报告。在过去的一个月里，腾讯、阿里巴巴、品多、京东等互联网巨头纷纷发布财报，但美团迟迟未能等到月底。在此期间，美团的股价从每股300港元波动至338港元，最低跌至270港元。在突破二兆美元香港市场价值的门槛时，梅川停了下来。市场在观望。

This is a special financial report. In the past month, Tencent, Alibaba, pinduoduo, Jingdong and other Internet giants have published financial reports, but meituan has been delayed until the end of the month. During this period, meituan's share price fluctuated from HK $300 per share to HK $338 and a minimum to HK $270. In breaking through the threshold of two trillion Hong Kong dollar market value, meituan stopped. The market is watching.

在这期间，有两个对美团不利的消息。一是监管部门正在酝酿互联网反垄断政策，美团可能会受到影响。另一方面，一些数据显示，美团的外卖应用在10月份首次出现饥饿。

During this period, there were two unfavorable news for meituan. One was that the regulatory authorities were brewing an anti-monopoly policy on the Internet, and meituan might be impacted. On the other hand, some data showed that meituan's takeaway app had been starved for the first time in October.

基于上述背景，投资者非常关注美团的以下三个问题：

Based on the above background, investors are very concerned about the following three issues for meituan:

一是美团外卖能否继续增长。你饿吗？你在蚕食美团的市场份额吗？三季度，阿里充分利用支付宝饿死转移视线。阿里的本地生活（饥饿+口碑）收入比去年同期增长29.3%。美团外卖收入增速能否超过饥饿增速将是一个重要信号。

One is whether meituan's takeout can continue to grow. Are you hungry? Are you eating into meituan's market share? In the three quarter, Ali made full use of Alipay to starve for diversion. Ali's local life (hunger + word of mouth) revenue grew by 29.3% over the same period last year. Whether the growth rate of meituan's takeaway income can exceed that of starvation will be an important signal.

二是美团是否会再次陷入亏损。今年一季度，受疫情影响，美团连续三个季度盈利，随后再次亏损。第三季度，美团加入社区团购大战。新业务的扩张可能会拖累美团的利润。

The second is whether meituan will fall into a loss again. In the first quarter of this year, due to the epidemic situation, meituan made profits for three consecutive quarters and then lost money again. In the third quarter, meituan joined the community group buying war. The expansion of new business may drag down meituan's profits.

第三，社区团购能否给美团带来增量。此外，该公司还于7月与腾讯展开了激烈的竞争。

Third, whether community group buying can bring increment to meituan. In addition, the company has launched a fierce competition with Tencent in July.

围绕这些问题，盛然将带您阅读美团第三季度财务报告，看看美团此次能获得多少分。

Around these problems, shenran will take you to read the third quarter financial report of meituan, and see how many points meituan can score this time.

外卖老板还稳定吗？

Is the takeout boss still stable?

三季度美团外卖收入207亿元，同比增长32.8%。

In the third quarter, meituan's takeout revenue was 20.7 billion yuan, up 32.8% year on year.

从增长速度来看，美团的外卖已经超过了饥饿人群的29.3%，基本稳定了局面。虽然美团外卖增长迅速，但美团外卖暂时保持了较高的增长速度，并没有让饥民超越。

In terms of growth rate, meituan's takeout has exceeded 29.3% of the hungry, basically stabilizing the situation. Although the growth of meituan takeout has been rapid, meituan's takeout has maintained a high growth rate for the time being, and it has not let the hungry man surpass it.

从收入规模上看，美团外卖与饥饿莫莫的差距进一步拉大。第三季度，美团的外卖额为207亿元。阿里在当地的整个生活，包括饥饿，是88亿元人民币。美团的外卖是阿里当地生活的2.3倍。

In terms of income scale, the gap between meituan's takeout and hungry Momo has widened further. In the third quarter, meituan's takeout was 20.7 billion yuan. Ali's whole local life, including hunger, was 8.8 billion yuan. Meituan's takeout was 2.3 times that of Ali's local life.

从Gmv来看，三季度美团外卖1522亿元，同比增长36%，恢复到疫情前水平。

In terms of Gmv, meituan's takeout was 152.2 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36%, returning to the pre epidemic level.

从交易金额和收入来看，美团外卖在三季度仍保持高速增长，目前没有放缓迹象。

In terms of transaction amount and income, meituan's takeout still grew at a high speed in the third quarter, and there is no sign of slowing down at present.

美团与美佑外卖收入比较

Comparison of takeout income between meituan and Meiyou

这两个数据非常重要，因为餐饮配送是美团的基础菜，占美团总收入的一半。第三季度的夏天也是外卖业务的旺季。根据之前的数据，今年第三季度外卖的Gmv和收入都比较高，所以暑期活动不能输。

These two data are very important, because food and beverage delivery is the basic dish of meituan, accounting for half of the total revenue of meituan. The summer of the third quarter is also the peak season of takeout business. According to the previous data, the Gmv and income of takeout in the third quarter are relatively high in the year, so the summer campaign can not be lost.

饥民的反攻也集中在夏季。今年7月，famo应用从餐饮配送平台升级为生活服务平台，以满足用户所有的燃眉之急，也就是说，未来应该什么都卖。今年8月，饥民发起了"百亿补贴"，覆盖全国100多个重点城市。从试运行效果来看，参与百亿补贴的企业订单增长率较日常运营增长一倍。

The counter offensive of hungry men is also concentrated in the summer. In July, the famo app was upgraded from a catering delivery platform to a life service platform to meet all the immediate needs of users, that is, everything should be sold in the future. In August, hungry men launched the "10 billion subsidy", covering more than 100 key cities in China. According to the trial operation effect, the order growth rate of businesses participating in 10 billion subsidy has doubled compared with that of daily operation.

这是今年3月支付宝全面整合后发出的信号，并饥不择食地对美团发起反击。过去，市场已经接受了美团外卖和饿了么的市场格局，饿了么的反攻似乎预示着外卖大战还没有结束。

This is the signal after the full integration of Alipay in March this year, and starved to launch a counterattack against the US regiment. In the past, the market has accepted the market pattern of meituan takeout and hungry moo, and the anti attack of hungry Mo seems to indicate that the takeout war is not over.

不过，从第三季度的数据来看，美团外卖仍然是第一的位置。

However, judging from the data of the third quarter, meituan's takeout remains the No.1 position.

据trustdata移动大数据监控平台数据显示，今年第三季度，美团与法莫的用户规模差异已逐渐扩大至1260.7万，而今年年初的差异为800万。

According to the data of trustdata mobile big data monitoring platform, in the third quarter of this year, the difference in user size between meituan and famo has gradually increased to 12.607 million, compared with 8 million at the beginning of this year.

三季度美团共接订单32亿，客户价格47.38元。今年之前，美团外卖的单价一直在46元以下。今年，受疫情影响，美团网上餐饮服务提速。美团外卖一季度单价高达52.02元，二季度降至48.83元。目前，外卖顾客的单价比疫情前有所提高。平均每个外卖订单可以为美团带来6.44元的收入。

In the third quarter, meituan took out 3.2 billion orders, with a customer price of 47.38 yuan. Before this year, the unit price of meituan takeout had been below 46 yuan. This year, the online catering service of meituan was accelerated due to the epidemic situation. The unit price of meituan takeout was as high as 52.02 yuan in the first quarter and dropped to 48.83 yuan in the second quarter. At present, the unit price of takeout customers is higher than that before the epidemic. On average, each take away order can bring meituan 6.44 yuan in revenue.

美团外卖单价及单笔收入

Unit price and single order income of meituan takeout

截至9月底，美团拥有4.8亿用户，比今年第二季度增加1920万。这一增长率已恢复到流行前的水平。全年活跃企业650万户，比去年同期增长10.2%，创近五个季度来的新高。

By the end of September, meituan had 480 million users, an increase of 19.2 million compared with the second quarter of this year. This growth rate has returned to the pre epidemic level. The annual number of active businesses was 6.5 million, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year, which was the highest in the past five quarters.

至于饥饿莫言的反击能否侵蚀美团未来的外卖市场份额，则要看双方在第四季度的表现。根据questmobile的数据，今年10月，美团外卖应用Mau超支。这是美团外卖应用程序首次被逆转。当然，这些数据只计算应用程序端。微信、美团、美团等应用中只有部分数据、美团等。然而，在一定程度上，战场态势的变化往往是从局部开始的。这也给美团敲响了警钟。

As for whether the counterattack of hungry Mo can erode meituan's takeaway market share in the future, it depends on the performance of both sides in the fourth quarter. According to questmobile's data, in October this year, the Mau of meituan takeaway app was overspent. This is the first time that meituan's takeout app has been reversed. Of course, this data only counts the app side. In addition to the meituan takeaway app, there are meituan app, Dianping app, wechat, etc., and Mau is only partial data. However, to some extent, the change of battlefield situation often starts from local. This also gives meituan a wake-up call.

赚钱的能力能持久吗？

Can earning power last?

今年以来，美团股价从3月的72港元升至11月的最高点338港元，市盈率达到633倍。资本市场之所以愿意给予美团如此高的估值溢价，是因为投资者认为美团未来将赚得盆满钵满。

Since this year, meituan's share price has risen from HK $72 in March to a peak of HK $338 in November, with a price earnings ratio of 633 times. The capital market is willing to give meituan such a high valuation premium because investors believe that meituan will make a lot of money in the future.

回到盈利能力的核心指标。三季度美团营收354亿元，比去年同期增长28.8%；净利润63亿元，比去年同期增长374%。最大亮点是净利润规模创历史新高，远超市场预期。

Return to the core indicator of profitability. In the third quarter, meituan's revenue was 35.4 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 6.3 billion yuan, up 374% over the same period last year. The biggest bright spot is that the scale of net profit has reached an all-time high and far exceeds the market expectation.

美团季度收入及净利润

Meituan's quarterly revenue and net profit

但值得注意的是，这一净利润并非"真实"净利润，其中58亿元是美团投资的上市公司股价上涨所致。今年第三季度，香港和美国股市的科技公司股价持续飙升。特别是理想汽车7月在美国股市上市，股价大幅上涨。现在股票价格是发行价的三倍。美团投资理想汽车上市前。

However, it is worth noting that this net profit is not "real" net profit, of which 5.8 billion yuan is due to the increase in the share price of the listed companies invested by meituan. In the third quarter of this year, the share prices of technology companies in Hong Kong and US stocks continued to soar. In particular, ideal automobile was listed in the U.S. stock market in July, and the stock price rose sharply. Now the stock price is three times of the issue price. Meituan invested in ideal automobile before it was listed.

剔除投资收益影响，美团第三季度净利润为5亿元，去年同期净利润为13亿元，同比下降。美团在运营层面的盈利能力并不像财务数据上看起来那么快。关键是投资层面的超额收益不稳定，不可持续。

Excluding the impact of investment income, meituan's net profit in the third quarter was 500 million yuan, compared with 1.3 billion yuan in the same period of last year, which was a year-on-year decline. The profitability of meituan at the operational level has not been as rapid as it seems in the financial figures. The key is that the excess return on the investment level is unstable and unsustainable.

那么，在运营方面，美团的真正盈利能力是什么？

So, in terms of operation, what is the real profitability of meituan?

美团的业务分为三个部分：餐饮配送、抵酒旅游和新业务。在第三季度354亿元的总收入中，这三项业务分别占58.5%、18.3%和23.2%。外卖业务量最大，收入贡献最大，但不是最赚钱的。三季度，外卖业务实现营业利润8亿元，餐饮、酒店、旅游业实现营业利润28亿元，新业务实现营业利润20亿元。外卖业务营业利润比二季度减少5亿元，比商店、酒店、旅游业增加9亿元。

Meituan's business is divided into three parts: Food and beverage delivery, arrival and wine travel, and new business. In the total revenue of 35.4 billion yuan in the third quarter, these three businesses accounted for 58.5%, 18.3% and 23.2%. Takeout business has the largest volume and the largest revenue contribution, but it is not the most profitable. In the third quarter, the operating profit was 800 million yuan for takeaway, 2.8 billion yuan for restaurants, hotels and tourism, and 2 billion yuan for new business. The operating profit of takeout business was 500 million yuan less than that in the second quarter, and 900 million yuan more than that in stores, hotels and tourism.

美团业务板块营业利润

Operating profit of meituan's business sectors

你饿吗？今年7月"百亿补贴"启动时，美团外卖并未卷入补贴大战。毕竟规模很重要，但利润也很重要。

Are you hungry? When the "10 billion subsidy" was launched in July, meituan's takeout was not involved in the subsidy war. After all, the scale is very important, but the profit is also important.

佣金仍然是美团收入的主要来源。第三季度，佣金和网络营销收入分别占美团总收入的65%和16%。但来自在线营销服务的收入增长迅速，第三季度为28%，高于佣金的25%。

Commission is still the main source of meituan's income. In the third quarter, commission and online marketing revenue accounted for 65% and 16% of meituan's total revenue, respectively. But revenue from online marketing services grew rapidly, 28% in the third quarter, higher than 25% of commission.

在美团的业务中，商家从用户那里赚钱，而美团从商家那里赚钱。佣金就像坐在地上收租金。它是从商人的流动中提取出来的。佣金率的高低决定了美团的利润空间。但是，提高佣金率容易引起纠纷。今年4月，美团商家攻击美团外卖，要求降低佣金。网上服务就像是收取物业费。美团通过向商家提供增值服务，向商家收钱。显然，后者更容易赢得商家的青睐。

In meituan's business, businesses earn money from users, while meituan makes money from merchants. Commission is like sitting on the ground to collect rent. It is extracted from the flow of merchants. The level of commission rate determines the profit space of meituan. However, raising the commission rate is easy to cause disputes. In April this year, meituan merchants attacked meituan takeout and asked for a reduction in commission. Online marketing services are like collecting property service fees. Meituan collects money from merchants by providing value-added services to businesses. Obviously, the latter is more likely to win the favor of merchants.

营销服务将在美团未来的收入中占据重要地位。就像阿里一样，当商家数量增加到一定规模时，股市只能依靠延伸服务，收取广告流量费是唯一的途径。去年，美团在网上推出了食品信息流。智能推荐的粒度进一步提高，并对广告费的维度进行了收费。现在，从商人到菜品，赚钱的想象空间越来越大。

Marketing service will occupy an important position in meituan's revenue in the future. Just like Ali, when the number of merchants increases to a certain scale, the stock market can only rely on extended services, and collecting advertising flow fees is the only way. Last year, meituan launched the food information flow online. The granularity of intelligent recommendation has been further improved, and the dimension of advertising fees has been charged. Now, the imagination space for making money has become larger from merchants to dishes.

当然，新业务仍在亏损，亏损程度还在扩大。三季度，美团网新增业务模块，如快驴、闪购、网购汽车、蔬菜购物等，实现收入82亿元，亏损20亿元，为近三季度最大亏损。

Of course, the new business is still losing money, and the extent of the loss is expanding. In the third quarter, meituan included new business modules such as fast donkey, flash shopping, online car hailing, and vegetable shopping, with an income of 8.2 billion yuan and a loss of 2 billion yuan, the largest loss in nearly three quarters.

你和美团相处得怎么样？

How are you getting on with meituan?

现阶段，美团最关注的新业务是蔬菜收购业务。

At the present stage, the most concerned new business of meituan is the business of buying vegetables.

以社区团购为代表的网络购物是今年参与度最高、资金密度最高、竞争最激烈的轨道。腾讯、阿里、滴滴、品多、美团都已进入游戏，美团是呼声最高、动作最快的巨头之一。

Internet shopping represented by community group buying is the track with the most participation, the highest capital density and the most fierce competition this year. Tencent, Ali, Didi, pinduoduo and meituan have all entered the game, and meituan is one of the most vocal and fastest-moving giants.

7月7日，美团网宣布正式进入社区团购轨道，并推出美团优选。5天后，美团优选开始在山东济南签约，并于7月15日正式启动。一个月后，美团优选进入武汉，并将美团在武汉购物的前端仓库直接转让给社区团购，并接手了美团在武汉购物的流程和供应链。

On July 7, meituan announced that it had officially entered the community group purchase track and launched meituan preferred. Five days later, meituan preferred began to sign a contract in Jinan, Shandong Province, and officially launched on July 15. One month later, meituan preferred to enter Wuhan, and directly transferred the front-end warehouse of meituan's shopping in Wuhan to community group purchase, and took over the flow and supply chain of meituan's shopping in Wuhan.

美团的首选负责人是S团队成员、美团高级副总裁和核心管理层的陈亮，他直接向王星汇报工作。整个三季度，美团优化一直在大力推进"千城计划"，年内实现"千城"覆盖。

The preferred person in charge of meituan is Chen Liang, who is a member of S-Team, senior vice president and core management of meituan, and reports directly to Wang Xing. Throughout the third quarter, meituan optimization has been vigorously promoting its "thousand city plan" to achieve coverage of "thousand cities" within the year.

一方面，它是美团未来重要的流量和收入来源。另一方面，它不能在这个市场上失去。如果品多或滴滴胜出，美团的估值将打折扣。

On the one hand, it is an important source of flow and income for meituan in the future. On the other hand, it can not be lost in this market. If pinduoduo or didi win, the valuation of meituan will be discounted.

在三季度财报发布前，资本市场就已经对美团蔬菜业务的扩张将拖累美团净利润进行了很好的预测，部分投行甚至预测美团一季度将出现亏损。在关键市场的仓位争夺战中，规模和速度比利润更重要。

Prior to the release of the third quarter financial report, the capital market had made a good prediction that the expansion of vegetable business would drag down meituan's net profit, and some investment banks even predicted that meituan would lose money in the quarter. Scale and speed are more important than profits in the battle for positions in key markets.

美团未单独披露美团优选的财务数据，美团已纳入新业务。不过，新业务的表现可以反映美团优化的进度。三季度美团新业务增长率为43.5%，高于外卖和酒旅。从收入增长曲线可以看出，新业务正在迅速回升。

Meituan did not disclose the preferred financial data of meituan separately, which was included in the new business. However, the performance of the new business can reflect the progress of meituan's optimization. In the third quarter, the growth rate of meituan's new business was 43.5%, higher than that of takeout and liquor travel. From the income growth curve, we can see that the new business is picking up rapidly.

美团三大业务收入增长情况

Revenue growth of meituan's three major businesses

在三季度财报电话会议上，王兴表示，美团优化目前是美团整个业务的优先战略领域，其覆盖范围是目前最重要的。

In the third quarter financial report conference call, Wang Xing said that meituan optimization is now the priority strategic area of meituan's entire business, and its coverage is the most important at present.

美团优选今年7月开盘，但密集分布从9月开始，因此数据不会马上反映在三季度财报中，但在四季度财报中应该会更明显。

Meituan preferred to open the city in July this year, but the intensive distribution started in September, so the data will not be reflected in the third quarter financial report immediately, but it should be more obvious in the fourth quarter financial report.

这是美团和品多第一次在前线战场展开直接战斗。虽然都是腾讯投资的新兴巨头，但过去在业务层面上没有太多交集，买菜也很少见。品多把买菜业务提升到战略高度，开创了硬核拼搏模式。从某种意义上说，收购蔬菜业务的成败，将在一定程度上决定美团新业务的增长速度和规模，也将影响美团未来的股价走势。

This is the first time that meituan and pinduoduo have launched a direct battle in the front battlefield. Although they are both emerging giants invested by Tencent, they did not have much intersection in the business level in the past, and it is rare to buy vegetables. Pinduoduo has raised the business of buying vegetables to the strategic level and started the hard core mode of struggle. In a sense, the success or failure of the vegetable buying business will, to a certain extent, determine the growth rate and scale of meituan's new business, and will also affect the stock price trend of meituan in the future.

现在，美国团又开始全面进攻。在每一条赛道上，它都会面对一个非常强大的敌人。在外卖市场，它正与阿里展开一场激战。在食品市场上，它也在与平度迪迪抗争。在葡萄酒市场，它正面临携程的强力反击。

Now, the U.S. regiment has begun to attack in an all-round way once again. At every track, it faces a very tough enemy. In the takeout market, it is in a fierce battle with ALI. In the food market, it is also fighting with pinduodidi. In the wine market, it is facing a strong counterattack from Ctrip.

美团稳定吗？也许对于这个成长中的巨人来说，永远不会有战争结束的时刻。

Is meituan stable? Perhaps for the growing giant, there will never be a moment when the battle is over.

*标题来自pexels。

*The title is from pexels.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20201201/20201201A03GQD00.html

update time：2020-12-01 14:48:12