P2P clearing up: who will pay for 800 billion bad debts?

时代周报特约记者魏雯发自深圳

Time weekly special correspondent Wei Wen from Shenzhen

随着P2P网络借贷机构的清理，所有的疯狂和纠纷也都退出了历史舞台。

With the clearing up of P2P online lending institutions, all the craziness and disputes have also withdrawn from the historical stage.

11月27日，中国银保监会首席律师刘福寿表示，在防范和化解重大风险方面取得了实质性进展。"互联网金融风险大大降低。全国范围内的P2P在线借贷机构数量已从高峰时期的约5000家逐渐减少到今年11月中旬的0家。

On November 27, Liu Fushou, chief lawyer of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (cbcirc), said that substantial progress has been made in preventing and resolving major risks. "Internet financial risks have been greatly reduced. The number of P2P online lending institutions in operation nationwide has gradually decreased from about 5000 during the peak period to zero in mid November this year.".

自2007年6月国内首家P2P公司派派派贷成立以来，P2P产业从无到有，遍地开花，终于走到了尽头。前后才13年。

Since the establishment of the first domestic P2P company paipaipai loan in June 2007, the P2P industry has grown from scratch, blossomed everywhere, and finally came to an end. It was only 13 years before and after that.

曾几何时，P2P网络贷款以创新的名义大行其道。它利用互联网技术的优势，突破空间限制，使投资者资金与市场借贷需求相匹配。热钱之下，各种玩家蜂拥而至，P2P网络借贷全新的赛道正在成形。

Once upon a time, P2P network loan was popular in the name of innovation. It uses the advantages of Internet technology to break through the limitations of space and match investors' funds with market borrowing demand. Under the hot money, all kinds of players swarmed in, P2P network loan brand-new racetrack is taking shape.

11月29日，深圳一家资产管理公司的负责人向时代周报记者指出："从逻辑上讲，P2P将劣质资产与不合适的群体进行匹配，结果是注定的。"。

"Logically speaking, P2P matches inferior assets to unsuitable groups, and the outcome is doomed." On November 29, the person in charge of an asset management company in Shenzhen pointed out to the reporter of time weekly.

幕布落下后，一切都空了，地上一片狼藉。但是，后续问题并没有得到很好的解决。今年8月，银监会主席郭树清曾公开表示，截至今年6月，网上借贷平台"仍有8000多亿元的贷款人尚未收回"。

After the curtain fell, everything was empty and the ground was in a mess. However, the follow-up problems have not been dealt with perfectly. In August, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the CBRC, publicly said that as of June this year, "there are still more than 800 billion yuan of lenders that have not been recovered" in the online lending platform.

11月30日，前P2P从业者、现广州一家小额贷款公司负责人黄平对《时代周报》分析："从老P2P机构良性退休到归零，下一步可能会加大不良资产的回收力度，我认为这主要还是通过司法渠道。"。

"From the benign retirement of old P2P institutions to zero, the next step may be to increase the recovery of non-performing assets, which I believe is still mainly through judicial channels." On November 30, Huang Ping, a former P2P practitioner and now head of a small loan company in Guangzhou, analyzed to the times weekly.

同日，广东省小额贷款公司协会常务副秘书长徐蓓对《时代周报》表示，P2P涉及面广，司法部门很难界定。""先罚后罚"的责任认定期很长，有效追偿一般至少需要3至5年时间。

On the same day, Xu Bei, Executive Deputy Secretary General of the Guangdong Provincial Association of small loan companies, told the times weekly that P2P involves a wide range of people, and it is difficult to define the judiciary. "The period of responsibility identification of" punishment before the people "is very long, and effective recovery generally takes at least three to five years.".

11月21日，国务院金融稳定发展委员会表示，将以"零容忍"的态度，严肃查处欺诈发行、虚假信息披露、恶意转移资产、挪用发行资金等各类违法行为，严惩各类逃废债务行为，保护投资者合法权益，维护市场公平秩序。

On November 21, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council stated that it would seriously investigate and deal with various illegal acts such as fraudulent issuance, false information disclosure, malicious transfer of assets and misappropriation of issuance funds with the attitude of "zero tolerance", severely punish all kinds of debt evasion and cancellation, protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, and maintain market fairness and order.

从峰值到零

From peak to zero

P2P模式的前提是借款可以回收。在短短的13年时间里，从金融创新到雷霆巨浪，P2P终于被淘汰并归零。

The premise of P2P mode is that the borrowed money can be recovered. In a short period of 13 years, from financial innovation to thunder wave, P2P has finally been eliminated and returned to zero.

2009年，互金行业研究员易飞刚刚进入行业。他向《泰晤士报》周刊回忆，当时P2P产业规模只有1亿元左右，借款人年成本可达70%～100%，网络投资者年收入30%～40%。

In 2009, Yi Fei, a researcher in mutual gold industry, just entered the industry. He recalled to the times weekly that at that time, the scale of P2P industry was only about 100 million yuan, the annual cost of borrowers could reach 70% ～ D100%, and the annual income of online investors was 30% ～ D40%.

根据网贷家园的数据，2018年中国P2P网络借贷平台年交易额约为1.79万亿元。易飞认为，借款人的成本在逐步下降，投资者的利率在12%～15%，借款人的利率在25%～30%。

According to the data of online lending home, the annual turnover of China's P2P online lending platform in 2018 was about 1.79 trillion yuan. Yifei believes that the cost of the borrower is gradually falling, the interest rate of investors is 12% ～ D15%, and the interest rate of the borrower is 25% ～ d30%.

由于一些平台非法吸收公众存款，一些平台借款人不还款，因此资金链断裂。

As some platforms illegally absorb public deposits, some platform borrowers do not pay back, so the capital chain is broken.

2015年和2016年，P2P平台频频爆发，行业规模急剧萎缩并开始下滑。截至2019年12月底，P2P正常运营平台数量减少至343个，2019年P2P网络借贷行业交易额下降至9649.11亿元。

In 2015 and 2016, P2P platforms exploded frequently, and the scale of the industry shrank sharply and began to decline. As of the end of December 2019, the number of P2P normal operation platforms has decreased to 343, and the trading volume of P2P online lending industry in 2019 has dropped to 964.911 billion yuan.

据《2015-2016年P2P网络贷款融资报告》统计，2015年，网络贷款交易额9823.04亿元，较2014年的2528亿元增长288.57%。截至2015年底，网上贷款累计交易额突破万亿元。

According to the statistics of "2015-2016 P2P online loan financing report", in 2015, the transaction volume of online loan reached 982.304 billion yuan, which was 288.57% higher than that of 2014's 252.8 billion yuan. By the end of 2015, the cumulative trading volume of online loans has exceeded trillion yuan.

恒大研究院院长任泽平在《从无处不在到零重新思考P2P》报告中指出，从流动性来看，2014年以来，股市持续上涨，大量P2P基金转向股市，流动性被抽走；在监管方面，政策陆续实施。

Ren Zeping, President of Evergrande Research Institute, said in the report "Rethinking P2P from everywhere to zero", that in terms of liquidity, since 2014, the stock market has continued to rise, a large number of P2P funds have turned to the stock market, and the liquidity has been withdrawn; in terms of supervision, policies have been implemented in succession.

2016年，风向逆转

In 2016, the wind direction reversed

2016年10月13日，国务院办公厅发布《关于开展互联网金融风险专项整治实施方案的通知》（以下简称《方案》），重点整治P2P网络借贷、股权众筹、互联网保险、第三方支付等重点领域，通过互联网进行资产管理，跨境金融业务，以及互联网金融广告。

On October 13, 2016, the general office of the State Council issued the notice on the implementation plan for the special rectification of Internet financial risks (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which will focus on the rectification of key areas such as P2P network lending, equity crowdfunding, Internet insurance, third-party payment, asset management through the Internet, cross-border financial business, and Internet financial advertising.

P2P的恶化是从信息中介到信用中介。

The deterioration of P2P started from information intermediary to credit intermediary.

P2P合规是做信息中介服务的，但大部分行业实际上都做信用中介业务。有业内人士对《泰晤士报》周刊表示，该行业的P2P合规率不到10%。

P2P compliance is to do information intermediary services, but most of the industry actually do credit intermediary business. Some industry insiders told the times weekly that less than 10% of the industry's P2P compliance was achieved.

一系列事件加速了P2P行业风险的暴露和重组，同时也极大地损害了贷款人的信心。

A series of events accelerated the exposure and restructuring of P2P industry risks, and at the same time, greatly damaged the confidence of lenders.

北京大学数字金融研究中心副主任沈岩教授认为："大多数投资者不会随便把钱借给陌生人。他们投资是因为他们相信这个平台。作为信用中介，个人网络借贷业务应持牌经营。

According to Professor Shen Yan, deputy director of the digital finance research center of Peking University, "most investors don't lend money to strangers casually. They invest because they believe in the platform. As a credit intermediary, individual network lending business should be licensed.

然而，在P2P产业链中，也存在着很多问题：投资者（贷款人）信心不足，不再继续投资；借款人掌舵，不还钱；平台信用崩盘；资金链断裂，链条三部分循环直至行业终结。

However, in the chain of P2P, there are many problems: investors (lenders) are not confident and don't continue to invest; borrowers play the helm and don't pay back money; platform credit collapses; the capital chain breaks down, and the three parts of the chain cycle until the end of the industry.

陈进对《泰晤士报》周刊表示，"在这种情况下，整个行业的退市政策直到去年都非常明确，但各地区、各平台的退出步伐却接二连三"。

Chen Jin told the times weekly that "under this situation, the policy of the whole industry's retirement has been very clear until last year, but the pace of exit of various regions and platforms has been successively.".

清除后遗症

Sequelae of clearance

"中国大部分P2P网络借贷平台实际上都在做信贷业务。基本上，那些不能从网上借钱的人，基本上是不能从网上借钱的人。因此，风险控制尤为重要。"易飞分析。

"Most P2P online lending platforms in China are actually doing credit business. People who would like to borrow money from online lending platforms are basically people who can't borrow money from banks, and they are customers that banks can't look down on. Therefore, risk control is particularly important. " Yi Fei analysis.

11月29日，广州一位互联网金融家向《时代周报》分析，在P2P平台逐渐退出的过程中，平台应该承担起责任。P2P无法承受太多的坏账。据业内人士分析，银行业坏账率不能超过2%，P2P的正常坏账率为3%～D5%。

On November 29, an Internet financier in Guangzhou analyzed to the times weekly that the platform should have taken responsibility in the process of the gradual withdrawal of P2P platforms. P2P can't afford too many bad debts. According to the analysis of industry insiders, the bad debt rate of banking industry cannot exceed 2%, and the normal bad debt rate of P2P is 3% ～ D5%.

大多数借款人有能力在到期时偿还本金和利息。

The majority of the borrowers have the ability to repay the principal and interest at maturity.

更糟糕的是，一旦平台退出或爆发，贷款人将失去还贷意愿，"不还钱"的情况时有发生。

What's worse, once the platform exits or explodes, the lender will lose the willingness to pay back the money, and the situation of "not paying back the money" often occurs.

"在行业刚刚陷入混乱的2018年下半年，大部分平台仍能实现70%左右的回报率。后来我们看到这个消息，就知道这个行业特别混乱，平台也要关门了，所以我们不愿意退货。"叶飞说，目前一般的缴费率可能连30%都没有。

"In the second half of 2018, when the industry was just in chaos, most platforms could still achieve a return rate of about 70%. Later, when we saw the news, we knew that the industry was particularly chaotic and the platform was closing down, so we were not willing to return it. " Yifei said that the current general payment rate may not even have 30%.

易飞对《时代周报》说："互联网金融的特点是由数千万人组成，即小额分散。"。

"The characteristic of Internet finance is composed of tens of millions of people, that is, small amount dispersion." Yi Fei told the times weekly.

少量的去中心化增加了P2P平台的收集成本。据业内人士介绍，"外包收藏"的成本很高，几乎占到20%～D50%，也就是说要收回100万元，给收藏公司至少20万元。"P2P也无法同时追求数百人、数千人甚至数万人，"曾任P2P平台风险控制经理的沈厚告诉《泰晤士报》周刊。

Small amount of decentralization increases the collection cost of P2P platform. According to industry insiders, the cost of "outsourcing collection" is high, accounting for almost 20% ～ D50%, that is, to recover 1 million yuan and give at least 200000 yuan to collection companies. "P2P is also unable to pursue hundreds of people, thousands of people or even tens of thousands of people at the same time." Shen Hou, a former risk control manager of a P2P platform, told the times weekly.

"预计有关监管部门将在打击逃废债务、开放信贷准入和诉讼受理等方面做好支持工作，陈进对《时代周报》说："把网上贷款失信人的信用信息列入失信人名单，提高资产回收率，减少放贷人的损失。"。

"It is expected that the relevant regulatory authorities will do a good job in supporting the crackdown on debt evasion and cancellation, open credit access and litigation acceptance, and improve the asset recovery ratio and reduce the losses of lenders by putting the credit information of online loan dishonest people into the list of dishonest persons subjected to execution." Chen Jin told the times weekly.

P2P已经被清除，但教训值得我们学习。金融创新不能取代监管已成为共识。

P2P has been cleared, but the lessons are worth learning. It has become a consensus that financial innovation can not replace supervision and regulation.

一些市场人士认为，近年来蓬勃发展的现金贷款与之相似，两者都曾被视为金融创新，"风险开始显现"。

Some market participants believe that cash loans, which have been booming in recent years, are similar to them, and both of them were once regarded as financial innovation, and "risks begin to show".

一位资深从业者对《泰晤士报》周刊表示："监管部门已经看到了现金贷款的风险，希望出台的一系列监管措施能够真正落到实处，规范行业发展，不要走P2P行业的老路。"。

"The regulatory authorities have seen the risk of cash loans, and hope that the series of regulatory measures introduced can really be implemented, standardize the development of the industry, and not follow the old path of P2P industry." A senior practitioner told the times weekly.

收回旧债任重道远

Long way to recover old debts

陈进认为，即使正常借款人短期内处于盈利状态，长期来看，也将面临平台清理后存量近8000亿元不良资产如何处置的问题。

Chen Jin believes that even if the normal borrowers are in a profit-making state in the short term, in the long run, they will face the problem of how to deal with the stock of non-performing assets of nearly 800 billion yuan after the platform is cleared.

司法处置是追回不良平台的最后手段，但面临着长期性、执行难等诸多问题。

Judicial disposal is the last means to recover the bad platform, but it faces many problems such as long-term and difficult implementation.

北京京石律师事务所律师孙建章告诉《时代周报》，一般来说，解决民事纠纷从立案到结案需要6个月的时间，最短的是3个月，这在现实中会延长。

Sun Jianzhang, a lawyer from Beijing Jingshi law firm, told the times weekly that generally speaking, it takes six months to solve civil disputes from filing to closing, and the shortest is three months, which will be extended in reality.

目前在P2P平台上还没有受理与借银平台有关的纠纷和纠纷。只能期待，今后法院受理诉讼后，不良资产的收付比例可以提高一点。"

Chen Jin's P2P platform is still in the process of clearing and cashing, "now many courts do not accept lawsuits involving P2P lending disputes, and the platform has no way to take borrowers. It can only be expected that after the court accepts the lawsuit in the future, the proportion of payment collection of non-performing assets can be increased a little bit. "

孙建章律师告诉《泰晤士报》周刊，法院受理诉讼时，首先要考虑是否属于犯罪行为（非法吸收公众存款）。如果认定是犯罪行为，法院将不予受理。

Lawyer sun Jianzhang told the times weekly that when accepting a lawsuit, the court should first consider whether it is a criminal act (illegally absorbing public deposits). If it is found to be a criminal act, the court will not accept such cases.

据了解，一旦P2P爆发，平台主体被立案，平台瘫痪。之后，公安系统将对坏账进行处理。

It is understood that once P2P explodes, the main body of the platform is put on file, and the platform is paralyzed. After that, the public security system will handle the bad debts.

上述广州共同基金人士表示，公安机关在追讨过程中发现的借款人无力偿还，或者只能收回拖欠数额较大的借款人。

The above-mentioned Guangzhou mutual fund personage said that the borrowers found by the public security organs in the process of recovery were unable to repay, or could only recover the borrowers with a large amount of arrears.

孙建章分析认为，通过司法渠道追回不良资产的实际困难在于P2P借款人的复杂性，包括信用贷款、汽车贷款和住房贷款。如果借款人有实物抵押，如汽车贷款，法院可以立即强制执行。但信用贷款人多、分散、数额小，法院难以执行。此外，当借款人的合同到期时，他可以要求民事权利。如借款人借款100万元，平台只能在一年后向法院起诉赔偿。此时，平台早已"雷霆万钧"，空无一人。

According to sun Jianzhang's analysis, the practical difficulty of recovering non-performing assets through judicial channels is the complexity of P2P borrowers, including credit loans, car loans and housing loans. If the borrower has physical mortgage, such as car loan, the court can immediately enforce it. But the credit loan has many people, scattered and small amount, so it is difficult for the court to enforce it. Moreover, when the borrower's contract expires, he can claim civil rights. For example, if the borrower borrows 1 million yuan, the platform can only sue for compensation in the court after one year. At this time, the platform has long been "Thunderbolt", empty.

"要解决这个问题，不能靠单一的司法机关或投资者，而应该是一个系统工程。如果公安机关能查到借款人的相关信息，再由检察院代P2P或投资人进行民事诉讼，效果可能会更好。"

"To solve this problem, we should not rely on a single judicial organ or investor, but should be a systematic project. If the public security organ can find out the relevant information of the borrower, and then the procuratorate will conduct civil litigation on behalf of P2P or investor, the effect may be better."

借钱还钱是很自然的。沈岩建议，社会制度建设要形成威慑，完善信用文化，"老赖"要进入信用参考体系，并以此为契机做好个人信用体系建设。

It is natural and natural to borrow money to repay money. Shen Yan suggested that the construction of social system should form a deterrent, improve the credit culture, and "Laolai" should enter the credit reference system, and take this opportunity to do a good job in the personal credit system.

"一旦正式列入网络借贷失信者名单，P2P网络借贷中失信者可能受到的处罚包括：提高贷款利率和财产保险费率；限制贷款、保险等服务的使用；多部门联合惩戒。随着这种惩罚的实施，守信的重要性将逐渐深入人心。"沈燕说。

"Once officially included in the list of dishonest people in online lending, the possible penalties for dishonest people in P2P online lending include: higher loan interest rates and property insurance premium rates; limited access to services such as loans and insurance; and joint disciplinary measures by multiple departments. With the implementation of this kind of punishment, the importance of keeping faith will gradually be rooted in the hearts of the people. " Shen Yan said.

今年8月20日，最高人民法院将民间借贷利率的司法保护上限修改为4倍LPR，即15.4%，明显低于此前24%和36%的利率基准。据陈进分析，根据新规，不少借款人会以之前业务利率超过新规上限为由拒绝还款。

On August 20, this year, the Supreme People's court revised the judicial protection upper limit of private lending interest rate to 4 times LPR, that is 15.4%, significantly lower than the previous interest rate benchmark of 24% and 36%. According to Chen Jin's analysis, according to the new rules, many borrowers will refuse to repay money on the ground that the interest rate of previous business exceeds the upper limit of the new rules.

易飞表示，多数P2P平台从业者，由于法律提醒周期太长且不可控，宁愿平台尽量自行收集，而不是优先考虑司法程序，依靠司法收集。

Yi Fei said that most P2P platform practitioners, because the legal reminder cycle is too long and uncontrollable, prefer the platform to try to collect by themselves, rather than giving priority to judicial procedures and relying on judicial collection.

另一方面，如果平台主动收钱，很容易被认定为暴力收钱。

On the other hand, if the platform actively collects money, it is easy to be identified as violent collection.

深圳一位业内人士对《时代周报》记者表示，即使是P2P平台回收，这笔钱也不属于平台，而是属于投资者。即使P2P平台得以恢复，也难以弥补资金链的断裂。

An industry person in Shenzhen told the times weekly that even if it is a P2P platform to recover, the money does not belong to the platform but to the investors. Even if P2P platform is recovered, it is difficult to make up for the broken capital chain.

该人士表示："雷霆已成现实，P2P不良资产回收需要顶层设计。"

"Thunder has become a reality, P2P recovery of non-performing assets needs top-level design," said the person

广州一家小额贷款公司相关负责人对《时代周报》记者分析说："如果平台觉得自己很难收回，把不良资产折价卖给第三方不良资产处置公司也是一种出路。"。

"If the platform feels that it is difficult to recover itself, selling the non-performing assets at a discount to a third-party non-performing asset disposal company is also a way out." The person in charge of a small loan company in Guangzhou analyzed to the reporter of the times weekly.

未来投资者将何去何从。

Where will investors go in the future.

财经观察人士郭士亮认为，对于规模在1万亿元以上的行业，随着平台实施良性退出策略，预计未来投资者将收回部分本金。他表示，对于许多投资者来说，在经历了这段投资经历后，他们将逐渐改变原有的风险偏好和资产配置策略，"要么转向风险较低的债券型基金，要么转向风险较低的存单或货币基金"。

Guo Shiliang, a financial observer, believes that for industries with a scale of more than one trillion yuan, investors are expected to take back part of the principal in the future as the platform carries out a benign exit strategy. He said that for many investors, after this investment experience, they will gradually change their original risk preference and asset allocation strategy and "either turn to bond funds with lower risks, or to certificates of deposit or monetary funds with lower risks".

（黄平、陈进、沈厚为化名）

(Huang Ping, Chen Jin and Shen Hou are pseudonyms)

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20201201/20201201A00SXH00.html

update time：2020-12-01 10:37:26