The real enemy of Tesla killer is coming: lower production cost and more perfect autopilot system.

他们只是看起来像

They just look like

从外观上看，虽然特斯拉y型车看起来像是Model 3的放大版，但事实上，与3年前推出的Model 3相比，y型车有了很大的变化和升级。

From the appearance, although Tesla Model y looks like an enlarged version of model 3, in fact, model y has changed and upgraded a lot compared with model 3 launched three years ago.

作为一家为各大汽车企业提供咨询和研究服务的公司，蒙罗对每一个设计和制造过程都有一个更为实用的评价标准。质量和安全显然是第一位的，但在此基础上，每种设计和技术带来的优势都需要考虑成本。当他将购买的y型车完全拆解后，他给出了非常高的评价，尤其对各种工艺改进带来的成本降低感到满意。

As a company providing consulting and research services to major automobile enterprises, Munro has a more practical evaluation standard for each design and manufacturing process. Quality and safety are obviously the first importance, but on this basis, the advantages brought by each design and technology need to consider the cost. When he completely disassembled the purchased model y, he gave a very high evaluation, especially satisfied with the cost reduction brought about by various process improvements.

"结果令人震惊。2018年的3型车和2020年的Y型车的成本有着巨大的差别，而且成本大大降低了！"—桑迪·蒙罗

"The results are shocking. There's a big, giant difference between the cost of the Model 3 [in 2018] and this Model Y in 2020, and the cost went down significantly!" - Sandy Munro

"拆除的结果令人震惊。2020年y型车的生产成本与2018年的3型车相差很大，而且下降了很多。"――桑迪·蒙罗

"The results of the dismantling were shocking. The production cost of model y in 2020 is much different from that of model 3 in 2018, and it has dropped a lot. " ――Sandy Munro

这些工艺包括但不限于"压铸体"、"焊接工艺改进"、"线束缩短"、"热泵"、"电池配方可能改变"、"章鱼热管理阀"、"电机升级"，"集成电路板的进一步集成"这些工艺的改进实际上带来了性能的提高，但更多的是生产和制造成本的大幅降低。

These processes include but are not limited to "die casting body", "welding process improvement", "wire harness shortening", "heat pump", "battery formula may change", "octopus thermal management valve", "motor upgrade", "further integration of integrated circuit board" The improvement of most of these processes actually brings about performance improvement, but more is the substantial reduction of production and manufacturing costs.

例如，在冷空气温度方面采用热泵代替原有的PTC制热，大大提高了采暖空调的耗电效率，降低了电耗，间接提高了耐寒性能。这个东西的原理是"四两拨一公斤"，这类似于冷空调的反向使用。一部分电能被用来让介质从外部低温环境中"借"热，然后收集并辅助加热，将其送入车内。与PTC相比，所有的热量都是由电能产生的，可以减少能源的使用，达到降低电耗的目的。

For example, heat pump, which replaces the original PTC heating by heat pump, is used in cold air temperature, greatly improves the power consumption efficiency of heating air conditioning, reduces the power consumption, and indirectly improves the winter endurance performance. The principle of this thing is "four or two dial a kilogram", which is similar to the reverse use of cold air conditioning. A part of the electricity is used to let the medium "borrow" heat from the external low temperature environment, and then collect and assist heating to send it into the car. Compared with PTC, all the heat is generated by electric energy, which can reduce energy use and achieve the purpose of reducing power consumption.

当然，与三年前的model 3相比，似乎硬件改进不大的y型还有另一个巨大的优势。

Of course, model y, which seems to have little hardware improvement, has another huge advantage over model 3 three years ago.

特斯拉FSD自动驾驶系统在北美的Beta版发布，让无数用户为自动驾驶仪兴奋不已。在短短一个多月的时间里，有限数量的测试用户不断向特斯拉提供各种反馈，特斯拉在短时间内完成了三个版本的更新和迭代。最近，有消息称FSD的Beta测试版将在两周内在北美推出。更大的数据反馈将有助于特斯拉在已经推出的大型计算设备Dojo的帮助下，加快对自动驾驶系统的改进。

The release of Tesla's FSD autopilot system in Beta in North America has made countless users excited by autopilot. In a short period of more than one month, the limited number of test users continuously provided various feedback to Tesla, which made three versions updated and iterated in a short time. And recently, there is news that the Beta test version of FSD will be launched within two weeks in North America. The larger data feedback will help to speed up the improvement of Tesla's automatic driving system with the help of Dojo, a large-scale computing device that has already been launched.

特斯拉降价已是家常便饭，但夸张的是特斯拉降价并不影响毛利率。相反，第三季度的毛利率甚至高于第二季度。同时，从长远来看，特斯拉可以通过优化生产流程来降低销售成本。换言之，就是在保证自身利益的前提下，使价格竞争力最大化。

Tesla's price reduction has been a common thing, but the exaggeration is that the decrease of Tesla's price does not affect the gross profit margin. On the contrary, the gross profit margin of Q3 is even higher than that of Q2. At the same time, Tesla can reduce the sales cost by optimizing the production process in the long run. In other words, it is to maximize the price competitiveness under the condition of ensuring its own interests.

让我们简单地看一下比较。

Let's take a brief look at a comparison.

去年5月底，国产版特斯拉Model 3以32.8万的价格上架。在正式宣布量产和交付之前，价格降到了30万。经过近25万的基本版调整后，终于升级到了近25万的基本版。不过，考虑到25万款3系采用磷酸铁锂电池，成本会略低，所以目前确定21.7万电池版的基本升级版3.7万。

At the end of May last year, the domestic version of Tesla Model 3 was put on the shelves at a price of 328000. Before the real announcement of mass production and delivery, the price dropped to 300000. After nearly half a year's adjustment, the price of the basic upgraded version was finally set at 250000. However, considering that the 250000 model 3 uses lithium iron phosphate battery, and the cost will be slightly lower, so the basic upgraded model 3 of 21700 battery version is determined to be 270000 for the moment.

目前国内版y车型官方网站售价为48.8万，高性能版为53.5万。然后，通过将弗里蒙特工厂生产的同一款3型车与y型车的价格进行比较，粗略估计，真正的y型车出厂后在中国的售价约为35.5万。

At present, the official website price of the domestic version of model y is 488000, and that of the high-performance version is 535000. Then, by comparing the price of the same model 3 produced by Fremont factory with that of model y, the price of the real model y in China after delivery is roughly estimated to be about 355000.

虽然李翔认为"y型很可能成为单台销量超过100万台的车型"，但李斌认为"y型车不构成威胁"。不过，如果纯电动SUV在中国市场的降价幅度估计不大的话，那就不必说了。

Although Li Xiang thinks that "model y is likely to become a model with a single sales volume of more than one million", Li Bin believes that "model y does not pose a threat". However, with the product strength and possible price reduction range of model y, if the estimated price is put in the current pure electric SUV market in China, I don't have to say much about it.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20201130/20201130A0HT4F00.html

update time：2020-12-01 10:37:26