The real enemy of Tesla killer is coming: lower production cost and more perfect autopilot system.

这不仅意味着国产y车型将免征购置税，也表明国产y车型已接近交货期。据特斯拉中国官方称，将于2021年第一季度开始交付。

This not only means that the domestic model y will be exempted from the purchase tax, but also shows that the domestic model y is close to delivery. According to Tesla's China official, delivery will begin in the first quarter of 2021.

根据工业和信息化部的数据，前后发动机共可提供431马力。

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, the front and rear motors can provide a total of 431 horsepower.

注：美国官方网站上的长续航版y车型的续航里程为326英里（EPA标准），换算为521公里。从理论上讲，应该是相同的电池配置，未来是否会改变还不清楚。

Note: the long endurance version of model y on the U.S. official website has a range of 326 miles (EPA standard), converted to 521 km. Theoretically, it should be the same battery configuration, and it is not clear whether it will be changed in the future.

近年来，新老汽车企业在推出纯电动汽车时，总喜欢把自己当成"特斯拉杀手"。然而，他们并没有意识到他们真正想"杀死"的目标不是3型，而是y型。

In recent years, new and old auto companies always like to regard themselves as "Tesla killer" when they launch pure electric vehicles. However, they do not realize that the target they really want to "kill" is not model 3, but model y.

模型非常重要

The model is very important

"对不起，这车再好也不是越野车。"

"Sorry, no matter how good this car is, it's not an SUV."

当很多特斯拉消费者买不起X型车，也不想买3型车时，这句话经常出现。

This is a saying that often appears when many Tesla consumers can't afford model X and don't want to buy model 3.

去年5月底，笔者在官网上写了一篇关于国产3系车型售价的文章。在整理资料、横向比较市场竞争对手时，我感到很尴尬，因为新老汽车企业推出的大量纯电动汽车都是SUV。从理论上讲，这样的横向比较有点不科学，因为在消费者高度重视实用性的前提下，该车型在购车时几乎可以起到"一票否决"的作用。

At the end of May last year, the author wrote an article about the selling price of domestic model 3 on the official website. When sorting out materials and comparing market competitors horizontally, I feel quite embarrassed because a large number of pure electric vehicles launched by new and old automobile enterprises are SUVs. In theory, such a horizontal comparison is a little less scientific, because under the premise that consumers attach great importance to practicality, the model can almost play a "one vote veto" position when buying a car.

之所以选择在前几年SUV销量快速增长的各大SUV公司都应该选择"作为前几年SUV销量快速增长"的原因。从2014年到2019年，SUV的销量在不断增长。虽然近两年增速有所放缓，但SUV在乘用车销量中的比重仍在上升。

The reason why various car companies choose SUV as the "starter" when they launch electric vehicles should be related to the rapid growth of SUV sales in previous years. From 2014 to 2019, the sales volume of SUV is increasing. Although the growth rate has slowed down in recent two years, the proportion of SUV in passenger car sales is still increasing.

一方面，市场上接受和喜欢SUV的客户越来越多。另一方面，很多车企从技术角度选择SUV作为纯电动"试水"。因此，市场上大量的"特斯拉杀手"都是SUV车型。当然，这样做有一个非常明显的优势，那就是在市场上避免与特斯拉Model 3硬碰硬，从而在SUV分公司市场赢得先机是先天的。

On the one hand, there are more and more customers who accept and like SUV in the market. On the other hand, many car companies choose SUV as pure electric "water test" from the technical point of view. Therefore, a large number of "Tesla killers" in the market are SUV models. Of course, there is a very obvious advantage in doing so, that is, it is congenital to avoid hard hitting with Tesla Model 3 in the market, so as to win the first opportunity in the SUV branch market.

当然，特斯拉的销量并没有这么大，但每年近百亿元的研发成本也为特斯拉带来了不少黑色技术和行业领先技术。如果中国的产品在北美市场上的竞争力太强，那么中国的产品在北美市场上的竞争力就很小了。

Of course, Tesla does not have such a large volume, but the annual R & D cost of nearly 10 billion RMB also brings a lot of black technology and industry-leading technology for Tesla. If the sales volume of North America is just because there are too few competitors, it is enough to show that consumers recognize its product strength by taking the lead in the most competitive Chinese market.

他们只是看起来像

They just look like

从外观上看，虽然特斯拉y型车看起来像是Model 3的放大版，但事实上，与3年前推出的Model 3相比，y型车有了很大的变化和升级。

From the appearance, although Tesla Model y looks like an enlarged version of model 3, in fact, model y has changed and upgraded a lot compared with model 3 launched three years ago.

"（这个自动驾驶仪电路板）比手机技术和国防技术先进得多。"――桑迪·蒙罗

"(this autopilot circuit board) is much more advanced than mobile phone technology and national defense technology." ――Sandy Munro

例如，在冷空气温度方面采用热泵代替原有的PTC制热，大大提高了采暖空调的耗电效率，降低了电耗，间接提高了耐寒性能。这个东西的原理是"四两拨一公斤"，这类似于冷空调的反向使用。一部分电能被用来让介质从外部低温环境中"借"热，然后收集并辅助加热，将其送入车内。与PTC相比，所有的热量都是由电能产生的，可以减少能源的使用，达到降低电耗的目的。

For example, heat pump, which replaces the original PTC heating by heat pump, is used in cold air temperature, greatly improves the power consumption efficiency of heating air conditioning, reduces the power consumption, and indirectly improves the winter endurance performance. The principle of this thing is "four or two dial a kilogram", which is similar to the reverse use of cold air conditioning. A part of the electricity is used to let the medium "borrow" heat from the external low temperature environment, and then collect and assist heating to send it into the car. Compared with PTC, all the heat is generated by electric energy, which can reduce energy use and achieve the purpose of reducing power consumption.

尤其是章鱼热管理阀在传统汽车企业的组织结构中很难实现。原因是该阀涉及电池和电机热管理、空调系统、电子电气部件热管理和温度控制系统等多个部件，是多个部门协同研发的结果，这对传统汽车来说非常困难企业要实现。特斯拉不仅大大提高了热管理的整体效率，还间接节省了整个系统的空间和复杂性，相当于降低了很多成本。

In particular, the octopus heat management valve can hardly be realized in the organizational structure of traditional automobile enterprises. The reason is that this valve involves the battery and motor thermal management, air conditioning system, electronic and electrical parts thermal management and temperature control system of multiple parts, which is the result of collaborative research and development across multiple departments, which is very difficult for traditional automobile enterprises to achieve. Tesla does not only greatly improve the overall efficiency of thermal management, but also indirectly saves the space and complexity of the whole system, which is equivalent to reducing a lot of costs.

马斯克在2020年第一季度财报电视电话会议上表示："我们预计y型五座版的生产成本将逐步与3型车的生产成本相类似，上述技术改进使y型车的生产能力有了一定的提高，而最重要的是降低生产成本。另一个更重要的是，y型和3型共享75%左右的零部件，由于中国本土供应链的持续参与，这些零部件的生产成本将低于北美。

"We expect that the production cost of the five seat version of model y will gradually be similar to the production cost of model 3," Musk said in a teleconference on Q1 financial report in 2020 The above-mentioned technical improvements have brought about a certain improvement in the product capacity of model y, and the most important is to reduce the production cost. Another more important thing to note is that model y and model 3 share about 75% of spare parts, and the production cost of these parts will be lower than that of North America due to the continuous participation of China's localized supply chain.

难怪马斯克在2020年第三季度财报中表示："未来特斯拉的障碍将是产能。"

It is no wonder that musk said in the Q3 financial report in 2020: "the barrier to Tesla in the future will be production capacity."

价格说了算。

The price has the final say.

当然，与三年前的model 3相比，似乎硬件改进不大的y型还有另一个巨大的优势。

Of course, model y, which seems to have little hardware improvement, has another huge advantage over model 3 three years ago.

特斯拉FSD自动驾驶系统在北美的Beta版发布，让无数用户为自动驾驶仪兴奋不已。在短短一个多月的时间里，有限数量的测试用户不断向特斯拉提供各种反馈，特斯拉在短时间内完成了三个版本的更新和迭代。最近，有消息称FSD的Beta测试版将在两周内在北美推出。更大的数据反馈将有助于特斯拉在已经推出的大型计算设备Dojo的帮助下，加快对自动驾驶系统的改进。

The release of Tesla's FSD autopilot system in Beta in North America has made countless users excited by autopilot. In a short period of more than one month, the limited number of test users continuously provided various feedback to Tesla, which made three versions updated and iterated in a short time. And recently, there is news that the Beta test version of FSD will be launched within two weeks in North America. The larger data feedback will help to speed up the improvement of Tesla's automatic driving system with the help of Dojo, a large-scale computing device that has already been launched.

特斯拉降价已是家常便饭，但夸张的是特斯拉降价并不影响毛利率。相反，第三季度的毛利率甚至高于第二季度。同时，从长远来看，特斯拉可以通过优化生产流程来降低销售成本。换言之，就是在保证自身利益的前提下，使价格竞争力最大化。

Tesla's price reduction has been a common thing, but the exaggeration is that the decrease of Tesla's price does not affect the gross profit margin. On the contrary, the gross profit margin of Q3 is even higher than that of Q2. At the same time, Tesla can reduce the sales cost by optimizing the production process in the long run. In other words, it is to maximize the price competitiveness under the condition of ensuring its own interests.

让我们简单地看一下比较。

Let's take a brief look at a comparison.

去年5月底，国产版特斯拉Model 3以32.8万的价格上架。在正式宣布量产和交付之前，价格降到了30万。经过近25万的基本版调整后，终于升级到了近25万的基本版。不过，考虑到25万款3系采用磷酸铁锂电池，成本会略低，所以目前确定21.7万电池版的基本升级版3.7万。

At the end of May last year, the domestic version of Tesla Model 3 was put on the shelves at a price of 328000. Before the real announcement of mass production and delivery, the price dropped to 300000. After nearly half a year's adjustment, the price of the basic upgraded version was finally set at 250000. However, considering that the 250000 model 3 uses lithium iron phosphate battery, and the cost will be slightly lower, so the basic upgraded model 3 of 21700 battery version is determined to be 270000 for the moment.

目前国内版y车型官方网站售价为48.8万，高性能版为53.5万。然后，通过将弗里蒙特工厂生产的同一款3型车与y型车的价格进行比较，粗略估计，真正的y型车出厂后在中国的售价约为35.5万。

At present, the official website price of the domestic version of model y is 488000, and that of the high-performance version is 535000. Then, by comparing the price of the same model 3 produced by Fremont factory with that of model y, the price of the real model y in China after delivery is roughly estimated to be about 355000.

虽然李翔认为"y型很可能成为单台销量超过100万台的车型"，但李斌认为"y型车不构成威胁"。不过，如果纯电动SUV在中国市场的降价幅度估计不大的话，那就不必说了。

Although Li Xiang thinks that "model y is likely to become a model with a single sales volume of more than one million", Li Bin believes that "model y does not pose a threat". However, with the product strength and possible price reduction range of model y, if the estimated price is put in the current pure electric SUV market in China, I don't have to say much about it.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20201130/20201130A0HT4F00.html

update time：2020-12-01 14:48:12