Sweden's medical system is the most developed among the five Nordic countries. Why is the fatality rate the highest?

要点：

Key points:

全世界新增牙冠感染人数超过1亿！

The number of new crown infections in the world exceeded 100 million!

大约一个月后，另一份官方报告对人口免疫发表了评论。这消息来自英国公共卫生部。

About a month later, another official report commented on the population immunization. The news came from the public health England.

什么是大规模免疫？

What is mass immunity?

这要从传染病的流行规律入手。

This should start with the epidemic law of infectious diseases.

传染病在人群中持续传播的必要条件有三个：传染源、传播途径和易感人群。阻止传染病传播，就是要控制以上三个因素：一方面控制传染源，另一方面切断传播途径，另一方面保护易感人群。

There are three indispensable conditions for an infectious disease to continue to spread among people: source of infection, route of transmission and susceptible population. To stop the spread of infectious diseases is to control the above three factors: on the one hand, to control the source of infection, on the other hand, to cut off the route of transmission, and on the other hand, to protect the susceptible population.

所谓群体免疫，原本是疫苗接种领域使用的一个术语，意思是当人群中有相当数量的人具有免疫力时，就可以有效地保护易感者。换句话说，当病原体传播到他们身上时，传播途径就被阻断了。

The so-called group immunity is originally a term used in the field of vaccination, which means that when a considerable number of people in the population have immunity, they can effectively protect the susceptible. In other words, when the pathogen spreads to them, the route of transmission is blocked.

这些具有免疫力的人群分散在社会中，分布在易感人群周围，形成一道无形的免疫屏障，保护易感人群。

These people with immunity are scattered in the society and distributed around the susceptible population, forming an invisible immune barrier to protect the susceptible population.

我们可以用一张图片来表示：笑脸代表有免疫力的人，哭脸代表没有免疫力的易感人。这张照片告诉我们：虽然这些易感人群没有免疫力，但他们周围有许多免疫人群作为屏障，他们仍然受到保护。

We can use a picture to show: smiling face represents an individual with immunity, and crying face represents a susceptible person without immunity. This picture tells us: Although these susceptible people have no immunity, there are many immune people around them as a barrier, and they are still protected.

当误差积累到一定程度，数量变化到质量时，病毒株就会发生变化。一旦菌株发生重大变化，最初感染获得的抗性可能会失效。

When the errors accumulate to a certain extent and the quantity changes to the quality, the virus strain will change. Once there is a major change in the strain, the resistance acquired by the original infection may become invalid.

例如，在2020年8月，香港报道了一个新的确诊病例。病人上半年感染一次，后痊愈。夏天，他去了欧洲，回到香港，又被感染了。经基因测序，发现两株感染菌株不同。这是新冠状病毒有两种感染的确凿证据。

For example, in August 2020, a new confirmed case was reported in Hong Kong. The patient was infected once in the first half of the year and recovered later. In the summer, when he went to Europe and returned to Hongkong, he was infected again. After gene sequencing, it was found that the two infected strains were different. This is the conclusive evidence that New Coronavirus has two infections.

病毒什么时候容易变异？当从一个宿主迁移到另一个宿主时，最有可能发生突变。换句话说，如果感染继续不受控制，病毒将继续变异。

When is the virus easy to mutate? When migrating from one host to another, mutation is most likely to occur. In other words, if the infection continues uncontrolled, the virus will continue to mutate.

第三，这种让一些人受到感染的策略实际上是非常不人道的，因为这等于告诉这些人：政府不会照顾你的生死，让它去吧！为你的生命祈祷！

Thirdly, this strategy of letting some people get infected is actually very inhumane, because it is tantamount to telling these people: the government will not take care of your life and death, let it be! Pray for your life!

作为一个公共卫生领域的医学同事，我真的不理解有人提出这样糟糕的想法。他所有的医学书籍都在哪里？这严重违反了医德。更重要的是，它被提倡为"更高的人道主义"。如果我们连生死都不在乎，人道主义从哪里开始？

As a medical colleague in the field of public health, I really don't understand people who come up with such bad ideas. Where are all his medical books? This is a serious violation of medical ethics. What's more, it has been advocated as "higher humanitarianism". If we don't even care about life or death, where does humanitarianism begin?

瑞典新型冠状病毒肺炎的发病率和总死亡率为2%，瑞典20人中有1人感染。1000人中有1人死于新的冠状肺炎。在北京，已经有100多万人被确诊，2万多人死亡。如果发生在中国，那是不可想象的。这是瑞典在2020年前三季度实行"大规模免疫"和"佛教防疫"的苦果。

The incidence rate of novel coronavirus pneumonia and the overall mortality rate in Sweden were 2., and 1 of the 20 people in Sweden were infected. 1 of the 1000 people died of new crown pneumonia. More than one million people have been diagnosed and more than 20000 have died in Beijing. It would be unthinkable if it happened in China. This is the bitter fruit of Sweden's practice of "mass immunization" and "Buddhist anti epidemic" in the first three quarters of 2020.

三。更重要的是，我们要注意表后的两个指标：近14天的发病率/近7天的发病率。瑞典的这两个指数仍然排名最高。也就是说，最近一段时间瑞典人感染的风险仍然远远高于其他斯堪的纳维亚国家。还有一个非常值得注意的指标，那就是死亡率。瑞典也是北欧五国中死亡率最高的国家。

3. more importantly, we should pay attention to the two indicators behind the table: the incidence rate in nearly 14 days / the incidence rate in the near 7 days. The two indexes in Sweden still rank the highest. That is to say, the risk of infection among Swedes in recent time is still far higher than that of other Scandinavian countries. There is also a very noteworthy indicator, that is mortality. Sweden also has the highest fatality rate among the five Nordic countries.

那么，让年轻人受到感染，能否实现大众免疫？它实现了吗？显然，一点也不。

So, let young people be infected, can we achieve mass immunity? Has it come true? Obviously, not at all.

这表明，瑞典新的皇冠患者死亡的概率高于其他北欧国家。

This shows that the probability of a new crown patient dying in Sweden is higher than that in other Nordic countries.

此外，瑞典的医疗体系是北欧五国中最发达的。为什么瑞典的死亡率最高？这是佛教团体免疫策略的另一个后果：医疗系统的崩溃。

What's more, Sweden's medical system is the most developed among the five Nordic countries. Why is the fatality rate the highest in Sweden? This is another consequence of the Buddhist group immunization strategy: the breakdown of the medical system.

佛教系统的群体免疫必然导致病毒在社会上的传播。新型冠状病毒也是一种传播能力强的病毒，短时间内会出现大量病例。这些病人必须去医院。

The group immunity of the Buddhist system will inevitably lead to the spread of the virus in the society. New Coronavirus is also a virus with strong transmission ability, and a large number of cases will appear in a short time. These patients have to go to the hospital.

然后问题来了：医院的承载能力不是无限的。医生是人，不是机器。即使是机器也应该定期保养，更不用说有血有肉了。当医疗机构超负荷运转时，其效率会急剧下降。

Then the problem comes: the carrying capacity of hospitals is not unlimited. Doctors are human beings, not machines. Even machines should be maintained regularly, not to mention flesh and blood. When a medical institution is overloaded, its efficiency will decrease sharply.

我们举一个例子：一家医院原本有能力每天治疗10个病人。如果它送去10个病人，他们都不会死。如果突然来了100个病人，恐怕一个也救不了。

Let's take an example: a hospital originally has the ability to treat 10 patients a day. If it sends 10 patients, none of them may die. If 100 patients come in all of a sudden, I'm afraid none of them will be saved.

如果不容易理解，有一个更简单的比喻：塑料袋里的水。一个能装5斤水或50斤水的袋子会爆裂漏水。

If it's not easy to understand, there's a simpler analogy: water in plastic bags. A bag that can hold 5 jin of water or 50 Jin of water will burst and leak out.

这就是崩溃效应。这个经济概念叫做跑。

This is the breakdown effect. The economic concept is called run.

例如，英国在2020年春季的第一轮疫情中，由于大量患者在短时间内蜂拥而至，医疗机构出现故障，死亡率一度达到20%。下半年第二波疫情开始后，死亡率再次上升，原因也是如此。

For example, in the UK in the spring of 2020, in the first round of the epidemic, the fatality rate once reached 20%, because a large number of patients swarmed in in a short time, and medical institutions were broken down. After the second wave of the epidemic started in the second half of the year, the mortality rate rose again, which is the same reason.

我希望这个COVID-19能尽快发布。

I wish this COVID-19 could be released soon.

特约作者：李发强，德州市疾病预防控制中心副主任医师，健康教育讲师团成员

Special author: Li Faqiang, deputy chief physician of Dezhou Center for Disease Control and prevention, member of health education lecturer group

参考

reference

[1] 中国疾控中心官方网站，COVID-19分布图http://2019ncov.chinacdc.cn/2019-nCoV/global.html

[1] China CDC official website, COVID-19 distribution map http://2019ncov.chinacdc.cn/2019-nCoV/global.html

[2] 瑞典国王承认防疫政策失败了：我们失败了，人民遭受了很大的痛苦https://world.huanqiu.com/article/419CtM4fZJz

[2] The king of Sweden admits that the anti epidemic policy has failed: we have failed and the people have suffered a lot https://world.huanqiu.com/article/419CtM4fZJz

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210201/20210201A01MIE00.html

update time：2021-02-01 10:51:22