There is no bolt on the gate of the car Hailing circuit

编者按：除了地铁、公交等公共交通工具外，共享单车、滴滴等共享交通工具也成为人们出行的首选。作为网约车领域的领头羊，滴滴近年来的竞争对手越来越多。它也在拓展业务领域，希望创造更多的商业价值。本文对网上租车领域进行了深入的分析，希望能对大家有所帮助。

Editor's Guide: in addition to the subway, bus and other public transport, sharing bicycles, didi and other sharing vehicles have also become the first choice for people to travel. As a leader in the field of online car hailing, Didi has more and more competitors in recent years. It is also expanding its business territory, hoping to create more business value. In this paper, the author makes an in-depth analysis of the field of online car hailing, hoping to help you.

一是以内容信息为核心的集中tiktok市场，包括天猫、百度搜索、微信、抖动等在线知识信息、即时通讯信息、商品信息、娱乐信息等。

First, the centralized tiktok market with the core of content information, including Tmall, Baidu search, WeChat, jitter, etc. Online knowledge information, instant messaging information, commodity information, entertainment information, etc.

二是基于位置的分散服务市场，即lbs美团、饿么、口碑、滴滴等品牌为代表。通过网上订购，提供准确定位的线下服务。

The second is the location-based decentralized service market, namely lbs. Meituan, hungry Mody, word-of-mouth, didi and other brands are the representatives. Through the online order, provide accurate positioning of offline services.

在前者中，企业价值的实现完全依赖于网络效应，这符合梅特卡夫定律。每一个新节点都会使网络价值以几何速率增长，具有很高的网络聚类度。分散市场的网络效应得益于规模效应。每个新城都需要从0到1的开放，具有规模不经济的特点，不能实现自然裂变增长。

In the former, the realization of business value purely depends on network effect, which is in line with Metcalfe's law. Every new node will make the network value increase at a geometric rate, which has a high degree of network clustering. The network effect of decentralized market benefits from the scale effect. Every new city needs to be opened up from 0 to 1, which has the characteristics of diseconomy of scale and can not achieve natural fission growth.

从这个意义上说，分散市场的成功常常给人一种"整体稳定、基础薄弱"的印象。

From this point of view, the success of decentralized market often gives people the impression of "overall stability and weak foundation".

无论是出租车还是外卖，城市的任何地方都可能被砸钱的"夜袭"吃掉。这些领域的头号产业往往并不意味着这个产业的大门已经关闭。只要有补贴，用户就愿意尝试新东西。很多人都说滴滴没有真正的障碍。一开始，美团出租车突袭上海，哈尔滨出租车在广东省中山市试运营，证明他们可以很快取得突破。

Whether it's a taxi or a take away, any part of the city may be eaten by the "night attack" of smashing money. The number one industry in these fields often doesn't mean that the door of the industry has been closed. As long as there are subsidies, users are willing to try something new. So many people are saying that didi actually has no real barrier. At the beginning, meituan's taxi raided Shanghai, and Harbin's trial operation of Harbin's taxi in Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, proved that they could make a breakthrough quickly.

那么，如何构筑网上购车的壁垒呢？答案就是让自己成为一个超级应用，支付宝、美的等本土生活平台现在正朝着这条路走。

So how to build the barrier of online car Hailing? The answer is to make yourself a super application, and Alipay, the United States and other local life platforms are now heading towards this path.

为了在以位置为核心的分散市场中实现规模经济，需要通过多应用聚合挖掘单个流量的价值。

In order to achieve economies of scale in the decentralized market with location as the core, it is necessary to tap the value of individual traffic through multi application aggregation.

如果是单一工具，无论流量有多大，其替代性都比较高。然而，如果有足够的工具和服务可以在更多的场景中使用，我们就可以降低或分担获得客户的成本，进而实现迂回的规模经济。类似的案例还有高德。现在高德做出租车和当地的生活。实际上，它通过开发多工具业务来分摊流量成本，实现LBS模式下的网络效应。

If it is a single tool, no matter how large the flow, its substitutability is relatively high. However, if there are enough tools and services that can be used in more scenarios, we can reduce or share the cost of customer acquisition, and then achieve roundabout economies of scale. A similar case is Gaode. Now Gaode does aggregation taxi and local life. In fact, it shares the traffic cost through the development of multi tool business to realize the network effect under the LBS mode.

2缺乏天敌："天子"的天罪

2. Lack of natural enemies: the natural sin of "the chosen son"

用滴滴自己的话说，可以归结为运营、技术、用户体验、效率和精细化等业务层面的内容。

In Didi's own words, it may come down to the business level contents such as operation, technology, user experience, efficiency and refinement.

不过，在一些外人看来，上述原因肯定有一定的原因，但滴滴成功的最直接原因或许在于它是资本的"天子"，而资本的驱动力推动了当时网约车市场上几家龙头企业的合并。滴滴网已经成为网上汽车叫卖的领头羊，但也可能成为制约网上汽车叫卖发展的一个因素。

However, in the view of some outsiders, there are certainly some reasons for the above, but perhaps the most direct reason for Didi's success is that it is the "son of heaven" of capital, and the capital drive promoted the merger of several leading enterprises in the online car Hailing market at that time. Didi has become the leader of online car hailing, but it may also become a factor limiting the development of online car Hailing.

或许是因为轻松，滴滴在过去与同期其他企业有些不同。当字节跳动与腾讯、百度等巨头交锋时，当美团四处扩张与阿里相遇时，滴滴似乎有点刻薄。

Perhaps because of ease, Didi in the past is somewhat different from other enterprises in the same period. When the byte beat with Tencent, Baidu and other giants battle, when meituan expand everywhere to meet Ali, Didi seems to be a bit of a mean.

前期依靠补贴推动市场，后期依靠资本推动，并以合并的形式实现统一的网约车地位。因此，滴滴始终是通往安全地带的屏障，而不是护城河。理论上，它可以被后来的玩家超越。

In the early stage, it relies on subsidies to push the market, and in the later stage, it relies on capital to drive, and achieves a unified online car Hailing status in the form of merger. Therefore, Didi has always been a barrier to the safety zone, not a moat. In theory, it can be overtaken by later players.

在首都的鼓励下，滴滴的致富之路也是这个行业的原罪。

Encouraged by the capital, Didi's road to prosperity is also an original sin of the industry.

1） 简单的交互：用户摆脱了低成本工具的原罪

1) Simple interaction: users escape from the original sin of low cost tools

网上购车总是有机会的，这也离不开低改装成本的行业特点。具体原因包括以下两个方面：

There are always opportunities for online car hailing, which is also inseparable from the industry characteristics of low conversion cost. The specific reasons include the following two aspects:

首先，网上打车的工具属性很强。

First, the tool attribute of online car Hailing is strong.

网上叫车的核心功能其实比较单薄。一个司机，一辆车，很容易同质化，附加值相对较低，或者说似乎根本没有二次互动。

The core function of online car Hailing is actually relatively thin. A driver, a car, is easy to homogenize, and the added value is relatively low, or it seems that there is no secondary interaction at all.

平台与用户之间的直接沟通和服务是一级互动，而用户黏性的真正提升则有赖于二级互动。一级互动解决痛点，这是基础，二级互动刺激差异，这是深层次的联系。然而，在网上售车业务中，很难建立两级互动。用户不能为某个驱动程序提供辅助服务，因为它不能被定向控制。顾客忠诚度不高，人们跟着补贴。剩下的是无尽的敌人和无尽的战斗。

The direct communication and service between the platform and users is the first level interaction, but the real improvement of user stickiness depends on the second level interaction. The first level interaction solves the pain point, which is the foundation; the second level interaction stimulates the difference, which is the deep connection. However, it is very difficult to establish two-level interaction in the business of online car Hailing. Users can't provide secondary services for the sake of a certain driver, because it can't be controlled directionally. Customer loyalty is not high, people follow subsidies. What is left is endless enemies and endless battles.

二是网上购车互动门槛低。

Second, the interaction threshold of online car Hailing is low.

工具化本身实际上意味着更低的交互阈值。一个超级门户加上支付工具，可以形成一个新的网上租车互动平台。目前，连接市场上的人和服务的超级门户，实际上是聚合网上购车的基本逻辑。而且付款更简单。网上支付只不过是支付宝或微信。由此可见，高德美集团能够顺利切入出租车市场。未来可能会有更多的超级入口安装打车工具插件。对于二三线购车品牌来说，多一个入口只会给他们带来好处。

Instrumentalization itself actually means a lower interaction threshold. A super portal plus payment tools can form a new online car Hailing interaction platform. At present, the super portal connecting people and services in the market is actually the underlying logic of aggregating online car Hailing. And the payment is simpler. Online payment is no more than Alipay or WeChat. So we can see that the High German and US group can smoothly cut into the aggregated taxi market. In the future, there may be more super entrances to install the tool plug-in of car Hailing. For the second and third line car Hailing brands, one more entrance brings only benefits to them.

2） 行业不忠：虚假股市的机会原罪

2) Industry infidelity: the original sin of opportunity in the false stock market

内卷化是网上购车市场仍有机会的重要原因。

Involution is an important reason why there are still opportunities in online car Hailing market.

公开资料显示，截至去年，网上购车已经发展了8年，在中国旅游领域的渗透率仅为3%。可能太舒服了。滴滴发展了这么多年，但网上购车市场还是一个"伪股市"。该行业仍有增长空间，允许更多玩家加入。特别是一些垂向方案在理论上可以改善渗透率。

According to public information, as of last year, online car Hailing has grown for eight years, with a penetration rate of only 3% in China's travel field. Maybe it's too comfortable. Didi has been developing for so many years, but the online car Hailing market is still a "pseudo stock market". The industry still has room for growth, allowing more players to join in. In particular, some vertical schemes can improve the permeability theoretically.

迫于压力，滴滴推出了华小筑，瞄准出租车市场。在竞争对手层面，高德也在出租车市场上下了功夫，并与金银健旅行、北汽出租车等北京多家大型出租车企业达成了深入合作。

Driven by pressure, Didi launched huaxiaozhu, aiming at the taxi market. At the competitor level, Gaode has also made efforts in the taxi market, and has reached intensive cooperation with many large taxi enterprises in Beijing, such as jinyinjian travel and BAIC taxi.

在一定程度上，这些更加垂直、更加精细的出租车服务，在一定程度上，实际上有助于行业突破今天的内卷。

To a certain extent, these more vertical and more refined taxi services, to a certain extent, actually help the industry break through today's involution.

综上所述，由于行业特点和滴滴自身的一些因素，网购汽车的大门一直没有关闭，并非没有原因。

To sum up, it is not without reasons that the door of online car Hailing has not been closed due to the characteristics of the industry and some of Didi's own factors.

虽然网上购车的轨道已经不适合简单的企业家加入，但其他轨道的"门口的野蛮人"其实也有可能进入。但网约车对他们来说就像锦上添花，看样子姿态似乎并不想颠覆滴滴的外表。但对于滴滴来说，网上叫车是命脉。如果你今天被咬了，明天又被咬了，可能会很危险。

Although the online car Hailing track is no longer suitable for simple entrepreneurs to join, the "barbarians at the gate" of other tracks are actually likely to enter. But the net about car for them like icing on the cake, look at the posture does not seem to want to subvert the appearance of Didi. But for Didi, online car Hailing is the lifeblood. If you are bitten today and bitten again tomorrow, it may be dangerous after a long time.

02变化、碰撞与共存：网购汽车未来将何去何从？

02 change, collision and Coexistence: where will online car Hailing go in the future?

行业内不断有"野蛮人"跳伞，因此滴滴作为行业的名义领导者，自然不能坐以待毙，想方设法建立起平台的两级互动体系。

There are constantly "barbarians" parachuting in the industry, so Didi, as the nominal leader of the industry, naturally can't sit still and try his best to establish a two-level interaction system of the platform.

那么如何建立两级互动呢？答案是成为一个超级应用程序。

So how to establish two-level interaction? The answer is to become a super application.

在过去的一段时间里，外界很难知道滴滴去年做得更频繁。此前，互联网江湖团队成员对此持两种观点：一是提高估值。毕竟，优步的教训是有的，单纯的网约车模式可能难以打动资本市场；二是通过"赛马机制"寻求"二次增长曲线"。

For some time in the past, it's hard for the outside world to know that didi did more frequently last year. Previously, members of the Internet River and Lake team held two views on this: one is to raise the valuation. After all, Uber's lessons are there, and the pure online car Hailing model may be difficult to move the capital market; the other is to seek the "second growth curve" through the "horse racing mechanism".

但现在看来，提高市值可能有一些原因，但应该是次要因素。"赛马机制"的想法也可能是错误的。滴滴正在进行聚合，修补死羊，并将自己打造成一个超级应用程序。

But now it seems that there may be some reasons for raising the market value, but it should be a secondary factor. The idea of "horse racing mechanism" may also be wrong. Didi is now doing polymerization, mending the dead sheep, and building itself into a super application.

因为超级应用的梦想，滴滴的众多新业务同时推出，只有橙心才能享受到"无上限"的待遇。滴滴从来没有做过电子商务生意。为什么她在社区篮子生意上如此执着？因为didi想要的是活动和用户持续时间。农产品属于高频刚性需求产品，容易产生实时消费。通过橙心优化，可以提高平台的活跃度，为未来整个生态系统服务。

Because of the dream of super application, so many new businesses of didi are launched at the same time, only orange heart can enjoy the treatment of "no upper limit". Didi has never been an e-commerce business before. Why is she so persistent in the community basket business? Because what didi wants is activity and user duration. Agricultural products are high-frequency rigid demand products, easy to produce real-time consumption. Through orange heart optimization, we can improve the activity of the platform and serve the whole ecosystem in the future.

现在，滴滴网的网约车业务正在分流社区团购，但未来，滴滴网或有望通过社区团购重振整个多元化的商业生态。

Now, Didi's online car Hailing business is diverting community group buying, but in the future, it may hope to revitalize the whole diversified business ecology through community group buying.

但有一个问题：滴滴弥补当地生活服务的同质化是否为时已晚？

But there is a question: is it too late for didi to make up for the homogenization of local life services?

让我们来看看滴滴的超级应用理念：网上叫车、自行车共享、同城货运、社区团购和滴滴地图。这些业务似乎可以在支付宝找到。至于美团，似乎除了地图之外，其他业务也被涵盖。与这些超级入口相比，滴滴似乎起步有点晚。如果其他商业用户习惯使用别人的家居产品，为什么滴滴有勇气接手用户？你能上网吗？

Let's take a look at Didi's super application ideas: online car hailing, bike sharing, intra city freight, community group buying and didi map. These businesses seem to be found in Alipay. As for meituan, it seems that in addition to maps, other businesses are also covered. Compared with these super entrances, Didi seems to have started a little too late. If other business users are used to using other people's home products, why does didi have the courage to take over users? Do you have access to the Internet?

其实，任何一个超级入口，其核心标签功能都有高低贵贱之分。作为超级入口的核心标签，网车在频率上不如美团的外卖频率，也不如支付宝的金融支付等聚合工具，甚至连一辆自行车都不如。2020年，共享单车的日均订单将超过4570万辆，而网上购车的日均订单将达到2100万辆。事实上，网上打车的活动不如共享单车，用户的心理评价应该向食物链的低端倾斜。

In fact, any super entrance, its core tag function has the value of high and low. As the core label of super entrance, the net car is not as good as the US group's takeaway frequency in frequency, nor is it as good as Alipay's financial payment and other aggregation tools, even even share a bicycle. In 2020, the average daily order of bike sharing will exceed 45.7 million, while the average daily order of online car Hailing will be 21 million. In fact, the activity of online car Hailing is not as good as bike sharing, and the psychological evaluation of users should be inclined to the low end of the food chain.

因此，我们不知道滴滴的立场是否会被推翻，但其市场份额被挤出或许是不可避免的。目前，T3旅行社、曹操旅行社、万顺旅行社、美团出租车、首汽租车、香岛旅行社和哈尔滨旅行社都有机会。

Therefore, we don't know whether Didi's position will be overturned, but it may be inevitable that its market share will be squeezed out. At present, T3 travel, Cao Cao travel, Wanshun travel, meituan taxi, Shouqi car hailing, xiangdao travel and Harbin travel all have opportunities.

至于外界对未来网络打车运营模式的猜测，目前看来，可能会走向"出租车式"的竞争形式。

As for the speculation about the future operation mode of online car hailing, at present, it seems that it may move towards the "taxi type" competition form.

一方面是"去共享"，实行出租车等标准化车辆。

On the one hand, it is to "de share" and implement standardized vehicles like taxis.

网上叫车的本质是什么？在互联网团队看来，就是要在固定的时间内实现供需的匹配。供给侧运输能力需要实现集约覆盖，以满足分散的需求。滴滴现在最明显的优势就是运输能力。

What is the essence of online car Hailing? In the eyes of the Internet team, it is to match the demand and supply at a fixed time. The supply side transport capacity needs to achieve intensive coverage to meet the scattered demand. Didi's most obvious advantage now is the transport capacity.

不过，目前来看，未来运营车辆的新能源趋势是必然的。在这种情况下，许多滴滴司机可能无法运行，他们的交通资源可能一度回到解放前时期。因此，去年滴滴发布了与比亚迪合作设计生产的首款定制网约D1，汽车厂商在这方面有着得天独厚的优势。在此之前，以T3为代表的车企网代驾平台从一开始就采用自营模式，为应对新能源转型提供固定模式。

However, at present, the new energy trend of operating vehicles in the future is inevitable. In this case, many didi drivers may not be able to run, and their transport resources may once return to the pre liberation period. Therefore, last year, Didi released the first customized online car Hailing D1 designed and produced in cooperation with BYD, and automobile manufacturers have unique advantages in this aspect. Before that, the car Hailing platform of car enterprise network, represented by T3, adopted the self operated mode from the beginning, providing fixed models to cope with the transformation of new energy.

另一方面，在一个城市，许多家庭并存。

On the other hand, in one city, many families coexist.

众所周知，很多城市都有多家出租车公司并存。今后，一个城市还可能有多家网上代驾公司提供共同服务。当然，这些城市实际上是针对五环路的。城区面积比较大，而且很多城市都有限号政策，所以对汽车的需求量很大，这可以让很多网上购车平台生存下来。

As we all know, many cities have more than one taxi company coexisting. In the future, a city may also have a number of online car Hailing companies to provide common services. Of course, these cities are actually targeted at the Fifth Ring Road. The urban area is relatively large, and many cities have a limited number policy, so there is a large demand for cars, which can make many online car Hailing platforms survive.

据天涯沙专业版数据显示，目前全国共有"网上叫车、网上订车、网上订车"等3万多家企业。在现有的网上售车相关业务中，注册资本超过1000万的有238家。尽管滴滴网是唯一的一家，但数据显示，在线租车可以一直支持许多地区玩家的生存。

According to the data of tianyancha professional edition, there are more than 30000 businesses in China, including "online car hailing, online taxi booking and online taxi booking". Among the existing online car Hailing related businesses, 238 have a registered capital of more than 10 million. Although didi is the only one, the data shows that online car Hailing can support the survival of many regional players all the time.

具体的市场份额划分仍难以预测。从某种程度上说，网约车市场的走向也可能取决于滴滴超级入口的效率。通过实现两级互动和网络效应，提高单个城市的市场防御力，可以有效避免单个城市被侵蚀的可能性，进而降低竞争对手的扩张速度。但在这段时间的中间，其实正是网购车"新生力量"的发展窗口期。

The specific market share division is still difficult to predict. To some extent, the trend of online car Hailing market may also depend on the efficiency of didi super entrance. Through the realization of two-level interaction and network effect, improving the market defense of a single city can effectively avoid the possibility of individual cities being eroded, and then reduce the expansion speed of competitors. But in the middle of this period of time, in fact, it is the development window period of the "new forces" of online car Hailing.

出行只是一种需要，但作为一个社会公共属性很强的市场，出租车很难被一家公司垄断。事实上，一个健康成长的市场也需要充分的市场竞争来提高行业的进步速度。

Travel is just a need, but as a market with strong social public attribute, taxi is difficult to be monopolized by one company. In fact, a healthy growing market also needs full market competition to improve the progress speed of the industry.

从这个角度来看，目前网约车行业的特点不仅为更多玩家提供了进入机会，也刺激了滴滴走出舒适区，像之前的另外两家TMD公司一样，不断寻找更多的元业务挑战。

From this perspective, the current characteristics of online car Hailing industry not only provide entry opportunities for more players, but also stimulate didi to go out of the comfort zone, like the other two TMD companies before, constantly looking for more meta business challenges.

世界不再是滴滴家族的世界，但它仍然是世界的世界。

The world is no longer the world of the didi family, but it is still the world of the world.

#专栏作家#

#Columnist#

每个人都是产品经理。未经允许不得转载

Everyone is a product manager. Reprint is prohibited without permission

标题来自unsplash，基于cc0协议。

The title is from unsplash, based on cc0 protocol.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210201/20210201A02EMV00.html

update time：2021-02-01 14:42:55