"Lack of core" affects mobile phone industry chain: channel price of Xiaomi 11 out of stock rises continuously

据科技创新板日报（上海讯，记者齐叶云）2月25日，小米中国总裁陆伟平正式发布了红米K40系列。卢伟彬一上台就谈到了"缺货"问题，并表示2021年芯片供应非常紧张，所以"不缺货"是没有保证的。前天，它甚至担心今年"核心"的缺失："不是缺，而是极度缺。"

According to the science and technology innovation board daily (Shanghai, reporter Qi Yeyun), on February 25, Lu Weibing, President of Xiaomi China, officially released the redmi K40 series. As soon as Lu Weibing appeared on the stage, he talked about the problem of "out of stock", and said that the supply of chips in 2021 is very tight, so there is no guarantee of "no out of stock". The day before yesterday, it even worried about the lack of "core" this year: "not lack, but extremely lack."

值得注意的是，K40系列很少配备"双旗舰"配置。K40采用了全新的snapdragon 870旗舰处理器，而K40 pro和K40 pro+则配备了最新的snapdragon 888旗舰处理器。不寻常的是，不仅不少手机厂商在近期的新品中异常采用了"双旗舰"配置。

It is worth noting that the K40 series is rarely equipped with "dual flagship" configuration. The K40 adopts the brand-new snapdragon 870 flagship processor, while the K40 pro and K40 PRO + are equipped with the latest snapdragon 888 flagship processor. What is unusual is that not only a number of mobile phone manufacturers have abnormally adopted the "dual flagship" configuration in their recent new products.

手机市场罕见的一幕，涉及到向全产业链蔓延的"缺核潮"。

The rare scene of mobile phone market involves the "lack of core tide" spreading to the whole industry chain.

小龙888供不应求

Xiaolong 888 is in short supply

Redmi并不是唯一采用双旗舰配置的公司。从现有信息来看，将于3月初发布的oppo find X3系列也采用了双旗舰配置。Oppo find X3将配备高通snapdragon 870处理器，Oppo find X3 Pro/Pro+将配备snapdragon 888处理器。

Redmi is not alone in adopting the dual flagship configuration. According to the existing information, the oppo find X3 series, which will be released in early March, also adopts the dual flagship configuration. Oppo find X3 will be equipped with Qualcomm snapdragon 870 processor, and oppo find X3 Pro / PRO + will be equipped with snapdragon 888 processor.

巧合的是，realme也正式宣布了新旗舰将在MWC上海发布，采用"双平台+双旗舰"的策略。

Coincidentally, realme also officially announced the new flagship to be released in MWC Shanghai, adopting the strategy of "dual platform + Dual flagship".

据业内人士介绍，众多主流厂商采取类似营销策略的背后，主要原因是小龙888的"缺货"，影响了众多手机厂商。率先推出小龙888的小米11首当其冲。

According to industry insiders, the main reason behind the similar marketing strategies adopted by many mainstream manufacturers is the "shortage" of Xiaolong 888, which affects many mobile phone manufacturers. Xiaomi 11, the first to launch Xiaolong 888, bears the brunt.

科技创新板日报记者注意到，无论是小米的官方网站还是京东的自营平台，小米都缺货，需要预约购买。

The reporter of science and technology innovation board daily noticed that whether it is Xiaomi's official website or Jingdong's self operated platform, Xiaomi is out of stock and needs to make an appointment to purchase.

"年前，我们的最低价是3940元。一位小米经销商告诉科技创新报记者，由于供应紧张，小米11的价格上涨了："昨天是4110元，今天是4140元。"

"Before the year, our lowest price was 3940 yuan. After the year, it went up by one or two hundred yuan." A Xiaomi dealer told the science and technology innovation board daily that due to tight supply, the price of Xiaomi 11 Rose: "yesterday it was 4110 yuan, today it is 4140 yuan."

目前，上一代旗舰产品小米10在小米官网的第一屏上被推荐。

At present, Xiaomi 10, the flagship product of the previous generation, is recommended on the first screen of Xiaomi's official website.

（小米官方网站截图，推上一代旗舰产品小米10）

(screenshot of Xiaomi's official website, pushing Xiaomi 10, the flagship product of the previous generation)

"这不是清仓。消费者得到的产品是在不久的将来生产出来的。由于小米11缺货，小米10主要在2月份促销。"知情人士向科技创新板日报记者透露。

"This is not inventory clearing. The products that consumers get are produced in the near future. Due to the shortage of Xiaomi 11, Xiaomi 10 was mainly promoted in February. " People familiar with the matter disclosed to a reporter of the science and technology innovation board daily.

《科技创新板日报》还了解到，小米10的自营月销量已经超过小米11，前者已达到11.15万台，而小米11只有8.76万台。

The science and technology innovation board daily also learned that the self operated monthly sales of Xiaomi 10 has exceeded that of Xiaomi 11, the former has reached 111500, and Xiaomi 11 has only 87600.

工艺和产量不足加剧了短缺

Insufficient process and yield aggravate the shortage

"小龙888作为目前最为旗舰的SOC产品，在上市初期应该处于供不应求的状态。大多数手机品牌都在这个旗舰平台上推出了他们的第一款旗舰机，而且商品的分销也很有限，"一位接近ODM领先公司的人士告诉《科学板日报》，今年的情况很特殊。"晶圆厂的产能不足。目前，8英寸和12英寸处于全球紧张状态。在第三季度之前，整个CPU都短缺。"

"Xiaolong 888, as the most flagship SOC product at present, should be in a state of short supply at the initial stage of its launch. Most of the mobile phone brands launched their first flagship machines on this flagship platform, and the distribution of goods is also limited." A person close to ODM's leading company told scienceboard daily that this year's situation is special. "The capacity of the wafer factory is insufficient. At present, 8-inch and 12 inch are in global tension. Before the third quarter, the whole CPU is in shortage."

Snapdragon 888由三星独家生产。此前，snapdragon 888的功耗和发热也引起了市场争议。接近高通公司的人士对《每日科学》表示，相关手机制造商正在积极优化取暖和其他相关问题。

Snapdragon 888 is manufactured exclusively by Samsung. Previously, the power consumption and fever of snapdragon 888 also caused market controversy. People close to Qualcomm told scienceboard daily that relevant mobile phone manufacturers are actively optimizing heating and other related issues.

吉邦咨询分析师姚家洋向《科技创新板日报》记者分析，小龙888的断货也可能是由于产品技术和收益率的不足。

Jibang consulting analyst Yao Jiayang to "science and technology innovation board daily" reporter analysis, Xiaolong 888 out of stock may also be due to the lack of product technology and yield.

"除了snapdragon 888之外，三星自己的exynos 2100和1080芯片也占据了其部分5纳米生产能力。在三星5nm产量不够高的情况下，很可能是产能紧张，导致小龙888出货不足。"

"In addition to snapdragon 888, Samsung's own exynos 2100 and 1080 chips also occupy part of its 5-nanometer production capacity. In the case of Samsung 5 nm yield is not high enough, it is likely that the production capacity is tight, leading to the shortage of Xiaolong 888 shipment. "

"高通可能担心三星的产量问题，所以推出了snapdragon 870处理器。"姚家洋解释说，按照高通过去的节奏，8系列处理器每年12月发布，而升级版则每隔一年7月推出按照惯例，在888处理器之后，888+版本应该会发布，但在高通snapdragon 888发布后的两个月内，snapdragon 870处理器就发布了，并提前向台积电下了订单，这很可能就是回应。"

"Qualcomm may be concerned about Samsung yield issues, so introduced the snapdragon 870 processor." Yao Jiayang explained that according to the past rhythm of Qualcomm, 8 series processors are released in December every year, and an upgraded version is launched in July every other year. "According to convention, after 888 processor, 888 + version should be released, but within two months after the release of Qualcomm snapdragon 888, snapdragon 870 processor was released, and orders were placed with TSMC in advance, which is likely to be the response."

"高通选择三星与苹果有很大关系。苹果占据了台积电5nm产能的绝大部分，但事实上，高通并没有太多选择。"姚家洋进一步表示，今年是5g的重要增长期，华为海外市场受阻后，苹果积极抢占市场份额。基本上，高通公司很难"达到产能"。

"The choice of Samsung by Qualcomm has a lot to do with apple. Apple has captured the vast majority of TSMC's 5nm production capacity, but in fact, Qualcomm does not have many choices. " Yao Jiayang further added that this year is an important growth period for 5g. After Huawei's overseas market was blocked, apple actively seized the market share. Basically, it is difficult for Qualcomm to "reach the capacity".

短缺、价格上涨、产能竞争

Shortage, price increase, capacity competition

小龙888引起的市场波动只是冰山一角。oppo前副总裁、全球营销总裁沈义仁公开表示，"今年由于上游供应链等多种原因，不仅汽车缺芯片，手机也缺芯片。存储面板等各种电子元件的价格也会相应上涨。"

The market fluctuation caused by Xiaolong 888 is just the tip of the iceberg. Shen Yiren, former vice president of oppo and President of global marketing, said publicly, "this year, due to various reasons such as the upstream supply chain, not only cars are short of chips, but also mobile phones are short of chips. The prices of various electronic components such as memory panels will rise accordingly."

更夸张的是在上游产业链上"抢货"。

More exaggerated in the upstream industry chain of "grab goods.".

台湾丽晶集团创始人黄崇仁不久前接受媒体采访时说："我三个月前就知道材料会短缺。我每天都要接老板的很多电话，询问生产能力。以前我说要几千块，后来变成几百块。上周，它开始变成几十块碎片。我可以想象，连几十块产能都要抢，缺货程度可见一斑。"

Huang Chongren, founder of Taiwan's Lijing group, said in an interview with the media not long ago: "I knew there would be a shortage of materials three months ago. I have to answer a lot of phone calls from my boss every day to ask for production capacity. Before I said it would take thousands of pieces, then it turned into hundreds. Last week, it began to turn into dozens of pieces. I can imagine that even dozens of pieces of production capacity have to be scrambled, and the shortage degree can be seen."

根据Gartner发布的报告，预计2020年晶圆代工市场总收入将比2019年增长13.7%，达到708亿美元。据估计，2018年至2023年，晶圆铸造市场的复合增长率将为4.9%。

According to the report released by Gartner, the total revenue of wafer foundry market in 2020 is expected to increase by 13.7% compared with that in 2019, reaching US $70.8 billion. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of the wafer foundry market will be 4.9% from 2018 to 2023.

事实上，随着全球智能手机市场的饱和，整体销量呈下降趋势。"不过，由于5g手机半导体零部件消费量明显高于4G手机，且叠加消费电子市场规模较大，晶圆OEM市场增长明显。"中航证券在相关研究报告中分析。

In fact, with the saturation of the global smartphone market, the overall sales volume is in a downward trend. "However, as the consumption of 5g mobile phone semiconductor parts is significantly higher than that of 4G mobile phone, and the superposed consumer electronics market is large, the wafer OEM market is growing significantly." AVIC securities in the relevant research report analysis.

"仅5g手机的电源管理芯片就比4G手机的电源管理芯片高出2-3倍。5g手机中的电源管理芯片成倍倍增，填满了联电、世界先进等8种能源，"黄崇仁谈到产能不足时，他说除了产能扩张不足，更重要的原因是需要大幅增加。"在4G时代，最多有5亿个信息融合，而在5g时代，信息融合多达600亿个，所以设备多达600亿个，都需要各种IC、内存等。"

"The power management chips in 5g mobile phones alone are 2-3 times more than those in 4G mobile phones. The power management chips in 5g mobile phones are multiplied by several times, filling up 8 kinds of energy, such as liandian and world advanced." When Huang Chongren talked about the shortage of production capacity, he said that in addition to the insufficient expansion of production capacity, the more important reason is the need to increase sharply. "In the 4G era, there are at most 500 million information confluences, while in the 5g era, there are as many as 60 billion information confluences, so there are as many as 60 billion devices, all of which need all kinds of IC, memory and so on."

"这波缺货远超预期"，黄崇仁感叹道："光靠5g和AI的要求是很难解决的，更不用说汽车芯片了"，"现在，每个厂家都愿意接受涨价，竞相争取产能已经成为当前的现象。"

"This wave of shortages is far more than expected." Huang Chongren sighed: "it's very difficult to solve the 5g and AI requirements alone, not to mention automotive chips." "Nowadays, every manufacturer is willing to accept the price increase, and bidding for production capacity has become a current phenomenon."

"去年的疫情导致停工，积压供不应求的同时，也产生了后续的压力。"一位芯片厂商内部人士告诉《科技创新报》记者，瑞萨NXP等众多芯片厂商纷纷提价这背后还是有点无奈，因为很多晶圆厂的生产线都是消费电子产品。"

"Last year's epidemic led to work stoppage, the backlog of demand and supply shortage, but also generated follow-up pressure." An insider of the chip manufacturer told the science and technology innovation board daily that many chip manufacturers, such as Renesas NXP, are raising their prices one after another. "There's still a bit of helplessness behind this, because many Fab production lines are full of consumer electronics."

上述人士表示，下半年，核心缺货潮或将有所缓解。

These people said that in the second half of the year, the core shortage tide may ease.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210301/20210301A01ECG00.html

update time：2021-03-01 10:41:45