Selling 1.6 million cars in five years, why does Li want to "float"?

让我们从刚刚发布的财务报告开始。

Let's start with the financial report just released.

扭亏为盈

Turn losses into profits

对于理想汽车来说，2020年是非常特殊和重要的一年，因为目前，唯一的车型理想一号将于2019年12月交付（当月将交付1029辆）。此外，理想汽车于2020年7月11日向美国证交会提交了招股说明书，随后完成了在美上市。

2020 is a very special and important year for ideal car, because at present, ideal one, the only model, will be delivered in December 2019 (1029 vehicles will be delivered in that month). In addition, ideal car submitted its prospectus to the US SEC on July 11, 2020, and then completed its listing in the US.

因此，2020年是完成理想交付的第一年。同时，第四季度财报的发布意味着2020年的年度财报成果即将出炉，而这份财报也是李湘敢于说"疯话"的信心之一。

Therefore, 2020 is the first year for the complete delivery of ideal one. At the same time, the release of Q4 financial report means that the results of the annual financial report in 2020 will come out, and this financial report is also one of Li Xiang's confidence in daring to say "crazy words".

我们来看看全年的关键数据

Let's take a look at the key data of the whole year

2020年，共交付理想产品32624件，毛利率16.4%；

In 2020, a total of 32624 ideal ones were delivered, with a gross profit margin of 16.4%;

2020年总收入94.6亿元，毛利15.5亿元，毛利率16.4%；

In 2020, the total revenue will be RMB 9.46 billion, the gross profit will be RMB 1.55 billion, and the gross profit rate will be 16.4%;

2020年，营业亏损6.693亿元，非公认会计准则亏损5.265亿元；

In 2020, the operating loss is RMB 669.3 million, and the loss under non GAAP is RMB 526.5 million;

2020年净亏损1.517亿元，非公认会计准则下亏损2.812亿元；

The net loss in 2020 is RMB 151.7 million, and the loss under non GAAP is RMB 281.2 million;

2020年，经营性现金流31.4亿元，自由现金流24.6亿元。到2020年底，实现现金及现金等价物101.72亿元；

In 2020, the operating cash flow is RMB 3.14 billion, and the free cash flow is RMB 2.46 billion. By the end of 2020, the cash and cash equivalents will reach RMB 10.172 billion;

事实上，从年报数据来看，理想汽车的财报并不突出，但一方面，这是理想汽车正式交付后的第一年。一个新车公司实现中国新能源SUV最高销量，占汽车销售毛利的16.4%，现金储备充足，已经是好事；另一方面，由于2019年理想车的交付还没有开始，所以对于一个新车公司来说非常重要，它的重要性不及2020年的数据。

In fact, according to the annual data, the financial report of ideal car is not outstanding, but on the one hand, this is the first year after the official delivery of ideal car. It is already good for a new car company to achieve the highest sales volume of new energy SUV in China, 16.4% of gross profit of car sales, and sufficient cash reserves; on the other hand, since the delivery of ideal car in 2019 is about not started, so it is very important for a new car company It's less significant than the data in 2020.

但如果从季度维度看横向比较，就能看出李翔的实力所在。

But if we look at the horizontal comparison from the quarterly dimension, we can see where Li Xiang's strength lies.

2020年，第四季度理想汽车共交付理想一车14464辆，环比增长67%，季度交付量再创新高。当然，中国车市的季度影响和疫情的影响也包括在内，但销量的持续增长足以显示市场对理想的认可。

In 2020, a total of 14464 ideal one vehicles were delivered by Q4 ideal cars, with a 67% increase on a month on month basis, reaching a new high in quarterly delivery volume. Of course, the quarterly impact of China's auto market and the impact of the epidemic situation are included, but the continuous growth of sales volume is enough to show the market's recognition of ideal one.

2020q4，实现毛利72460万元，环比增长45.9%；营业亏损7890万元，环比下降56.2%，表明公司整体经营效益不断提高，规模效益逐步显现。非公认会计准则下，营业亏损7110万元，环比增长58%。这是由于第四季度的大幅扩张，销售门店和人员的投入，以及研发投入的增加，而不是第三季度发行了大量股权激励措施。

In 2020q4, the gross profit was 724.6 million yuan, up 45.9% on a month on month basis; the operating loss was 78.9 million yuan, down 56.2% on a month on month basis, indicating that the overall operating efficiency is constantly improving and the scale efficiency is gradually obvious. Under non GAAP, the operating loss reached 71.1 million yuan, up 58% on a month on month basis. This was due to the substantial expansion of Q4, the investment in sales stores and personnel, and the increase in R & D investment, rather than the issuance of a large number of equity incentives in Q3.

（资料图/理想财务报告图/孙明远）

(data / ideal financial report, chart / Sun Mingyuan)

理想汽车以扎实的财务报告证明了李翔在经营和产品上的正确战略，巨额的现金储备也让李翔敢于继续坚持这一理念。当然，他"狂言"的背后，不仅仅是资金的支持，更是他对新能源市场发展和消费心理的审慎思考和判断。

Ideal automobile has proved Li Xiang's correct strategy in operation and product with solid financial report, and the huge cash reserve also makes Li Xiang dare to continue to stick to this idea. Of course, behind his "wild talk" is not only the financial support, but also his careful thinking and judgment on the development of new energy market and consumer psychology.

选择很重要

Choice is important

李翔不仅准确判断特斯拉股价走势，而且懂得如何在新能源汽车行业发展。

Li Xiang not only accurately judges the trend of Tesla's stock price, but also knows how to develop in the new energy vehicle industry.

虽然新能源汽车的发展趋势已经开出了大量的"罚单"，但要想在这个"新市场"中生存下去，还需要遵循"老规矩"。也就是说，在建立品牌力之前，要么以强大的产品力和特色冲击教育市场，要么另辟蹊径，避开竞争最激烈的市场。

Although the trend of new energy vehicles has issued a large number of "tickets", in order to survive in this "new market", we still need to follow the "old rules". That is to say, before the establishment of brand power, we should either impact the education market with great product power and characteristics, or find another way to avoid the most competitive market.

李翔选择了后者。

Li Xiang chose the latter.

理想汽车的原名是"汽车和家"。在李湘的蓝图中，其用户画像是"中国汽车消费者"的需求特征：家用、实用、性价比高、高端（面子）基于这一需求，新能源的充电和续航问题亟待解决，大车型、智能化等产品特征即刻显现。

The original name of ideal car is "car and home". In Li Xiang's blueprint, its user portrait is the demand characteristics of "Chinese car consumers": household, practical, cost-effective, and high-end (face) Based on this demand, the charging and endurance problems of new energy need to be solved, and the product features such as large model and intelligent are revealed immediately.

很简单。与其布置长期充电设施或突破电池技术，不如先解决实际使用问题，即增加程序混合动力系统。这样，就可以避免纯电力市场上"教育消费者难，竞争非常激烈"的问题。另一方面，在保证产品耐久性的前提下，将智能化、运动化的优势引入产品。最后，在add-program混合动力系统的基础上，开发和完善三大电力技术，伺机寻找技术和市场机会，进入纯电力市场，以适应未来的发展。

It's very simple. Instead of laying out long-term charging facilities or breaking through battery technology, it's better to first solve the problem of practical use, that is, add program hybrid system. In this way, it can avoid the problem of "it's difficult to educate consumers and the competition is very fierce" in the pure electricity market. On the other hand, it can bring the advantages of intelligence and motor into the product while ensuring the endurance. Finally, based on the add program hybrid system We will develop and polish the three electric technologies, wait for the opportunity to find technology and market opportunities, and enter the pure electric market to adapt to the future development.

如果我们不这样做，我们很可能在建立自己的技术核心和竞争力之前就被残酷的市场打败。原因很简单。仅仅为了克服比特斯拉晚了多年的技术积累，很难对抗特斯拉这个"不停行走的兔子"。而且，要实现这种技术军备竞赛，所需要的资金和人才是不可估量的。对于一家初创的汽车公司来说，这就像自掏腰包。

If we don't do that, we are likely to be defeated by the cruel market before we have established our own technological core and competitiveness. The reason is very simple. It's very difficult to confront Tesla, a "rabbit that keeps on walking", just to overcome years of technology accumulation later than Tesla. Moreover, to realize this kind of technology arms race, the funds and talents required are immeasurable. For a start-up car company, it's just like eating out of its own pocket.

在第四季度财报发布会上，李翔对那些"后来居上的车企"也抱着同样的态度：在新能源汽车行业，首款产品的制造和交付至少需要3-4年，3-4年后理想汽车的用户规模和技术实力是无法比拟的。

In the Q4 financial report conference, Li Xiang also held the same attitude towards those "later car makers": in the new energy automobile industry, it will take at least 3-4 years to build and deliver the first product, and the user scale and technical strength of the ideal car after 3-4 years are beyond comparison.

所以李翔并不是不知道增程混合动力车存在的问题，而是从全局考虑，至少这条路的利大于弊，而理想的车生存概率最高。

So Li Xiang is not unaware of the existing problems of the extended range hybrid, but considering the overall situation, at least the advantages of this road outweigh the disadvantages, and the ideal car has the highest probability of survival.

然而，正如理想汽车财报电话会议中所提到的，理想汽车在经历了艰难的岁月之后，已经从"0-1"阶段进入了"1-10"阶段。在资金和盈利能力的保障下，李翔非常明确，理想汽车要实现长远发展，必须选择提高自身雄厚的技术实力和硬产品实力。

However, as mentioned in the financial report telephone conference of ideal automobile, ideal automobile has gone from the "0-1" stage to the "1-10" stage after going through the difficult years. With the guarantee of capital and profitability, Li Xiang is very clear that ideal automobile must choose to improve its solid technical strength and hard product strength in order to achieve long-term development.

因此，2020年不断增加的研发成本、2021年至少30亿元的规划研发成本和3年内每年60亿元的预期研发成本，将注入"下一阶段"的理想，即纯电动高压平台、自主驱动技术等核心竞争力，其中自主驾驶将占研发经费的一半以上。

Therefore, the increasing R & D cost in 2020, the planned R & D cost of at least 3 billion yuan in 2021 and the expected R & D cost of 6 billion yuan per year in three years will be injected into the "next stage" of the ideal, that is, pure electric high-voltage platform, autonomous driving technology and other core competitiveness, in which autonomous driving will account for more than half of the R & D Fund.

为了实现这些目标，理想中最需要的是人才。

In order to achieve these goals, the ideal most need is talent.

前段时间，理想在上海成立了研发中心，开始向社会大量招收人才。在第四季度电话会议上，CTO王凯甚至提到，理想汽车急需各方面的人才，希望大家加入理想汽车。看来他来电话会议不是为了介绍战略，而是为了公开招聘。

A while ago, ideal established a Shanghai R & D center and began to recruit large numbers of people from the society. In the Q4 conference call, CTO Wang Kai even mentioned that ideal urgently needed talents from all aspects and hoped that everyone would join ideal automobile. It seems that he came to the conference call not to introduce strategies but to recruit openly.

大家都知道，尽管特斯拉有无数的黑点，但从技术实力上看，特斯拉的实力是有目共睹的。在这背后，是庞大的人才团队支撑着如今的特斯拉。它们是企业核心竞争力的基础。正如苹果近年来不断从特斯拉、自动驾驶公司、传统汽车公司、科技公司等地招聘人才一样，无论承诺的目标有多大，都需要一支坚实的人才队伍来支撑。

Everyone knows that although Tesla has innumerable black spots, it is obvious to all that Tesla is strong in terms of technical strength. Behind this, it is the huge talent team that supports Tesla today. They are the foundation of its core competitiveness. Just as apple has been recruiting talents from Tesla, automatic driving companies, traditional car companies, technology companies and other places in recent years, no matter how big the goal is promised, it needs a solid talent team to support it.

通过市场的反馈不难看出，李湘对"0-1阶段"的选择是正确的，通过对理想未来的规划，李湘对"1-10"阶段的规划和准备是比较完善的。如果理想的汽车能够按照计划一步步推广，那么从承诺的产品实力来看，其销量的大幅增长是毋庸置疑的。

Through the feedback from the market, it is not difficult to see that Li Xiang's choice for the "0-1 stage" is correct, and through the ideal future planning, Li Xiang's planning and preparation for the "1-10" stage are relatively perfect. If the ideal car can be promoted step by step according to the plan, then from the perspective of the promised product strength, there is no doubt about the substantial growth of its sales.

这是李翔的第二个自信。

This is the second confidence of Li Xiang.

后记

epilogue

虽然理想汽车的名字里有"理想"二字，但它的产品和未来的期望和计划都会落到实处。对购车者非常了解的李翔曾被媒体批评为"过于关注消费者"。但事实上，正是基于此，理想汽车才度过了最艰难的"生存"阶段。

Although ideal car has the word "ideal" in its name, both its products and its future expectations and plans fall into reality. Li Xiang, who knows car buyers very well, was once criticized by the media as "paying too much attention to consumers". But in fact, it is precisely based on this that ideal car has passed the most difficult stage of "survival".

新能源市场在资本层面的狂欢，让一些人产生一种错觉，认为只要努力参与，就能赚钱。但现在很多新车公司已经证明，这是一个带有惨痛教训的伪命题。

The revelry of the new energy market at the capital level gives some people the illusion that as long as they try to get involved, they can make money. But now many new car companies have proved that this is a false proposition with painful lessons.

不管出风口有多大，它能不能飞，取决于它自身的力量。这是市场竞争的永恒法则。

No matter how big the air outlet is, whether it can fly or not depends on its own strength. This is an eternal rule in market competition.

向特斯拉学习是可以的，但是盲目地追随特斯拉的一切，那是压倒一切的。中国汽车市场有自己的特点。消费者对汽车的刚性需求与海外市场不一样。因此，最直接的证据将是新车的没落和一些汽车公司的倒闭。另外，行业的发展趋势并不代表目前的情况。如何适应当前市场，稳步推进的长远目标，也将是新车厂商面临的共同问题。

It's OK to learn from Tesla, but blindly follow everything of Tesla, that's overpowering. China's auto market has its own characteristics. Consumers' rigid demand for cars is not the same as that of overseas markets. Therefore, the most direct evidence will be the downfall of new cars and the failure of some auto companies. In addition, the trend of the industry does not represent the current situation. How to meet the current market and steadily promote the long-term goal will also be a common problem faced by new car manufacturers.

无论是李翔还是其他汽车行业的"新人"，喊"疯话"都是值得尊敬的。但是否有详细的规划和配套的资源基础，能否逐步推进，才是问题的真正核心。

Whether it's Li Xiang or other "newcomers" in the car industry, it's respectable to shout "crazy words". But whether there is a detailed planning and matching resource base, and whether it can be promoted step by step, is the real core of the problem.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210228/20210228A0AXUS00.html

update time：2021-03-01 14:59:46