Wall Street cuts off the "new power of car making": capital leaves as fast as it comes

消息公布时，理想上市前股价涨幅超过10%。不过，市场并不接受其盈利。当日股价下跌9.8%，次日下跌1.92%，令人尴尬。

When the news was announced, the ideal pre market trading stock price rose more than 10%. However, the market did not accept its profit. The share price fell 9.8% on the same day and fell 1.92% the next day, which was embarrassing.

这并不是理想股价下跌的开始。事实上，自2020年11月24日以来，其股价一直在不断下跌。截至2021年2月26日，美国的累计降幅已超过42%。

This is not the beginning of a fall in the ideal share price. In fact, since November 24, 2020, its share price has been in constant decline. By the end of February 26, 2021 in the United States, its cumulative decline has exceeded 42%.

小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所：XPEV)对我来说更糟。自11月24日以来，它的股价已经下跌了52%，成为三家新车制造商中跌幅最大的一家。

Xiaopeng automobile（ NYSE:XPEV ）It's worse for me. Its stock price has dropped by more than 52% since November 24, making it the biggest one among the three new car makers.

小鹏汽车股价表现

Share price performance of Xiaopeng automobile

相反，尼奥。在新成立的汽车制造商中，N是上市时间最长、增长率最高的公司。不过，与理想相比，小鹏的降幅也最小，自2021年1月12日以来累计降幅接近27%。

In contrast, NiO. N is the company that has been listed for the longest time and has the highest growth rate among the new auto makers. However, compared with ideal, Xiaopeng also has the smallest decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 27% since January 12, 2021.

去年秋天，市场上流传着一个传言：如果华尔街投资机构的研究人员想出差到中国调查几家新车制造力量，投资机构会非常愿意批准和报销各种费用。此后，威莱、理想、小鹏的股价迎来了大幅上涨。

Last autumn, there was a rumor circulating in the market: if the researchers of Wall Street investment institutions want to go to China on business to investigate several new car building forces, the investment institutions will be very willing to approve and reimbursement various expenses. Since then, the stock prices of Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng have ushered in a huge rise.

然而，当前，资本市场"新生力量"的火热状态一到即消散。在中国新能源汽车爆发期间，美国投资者为何选择离开？其原因和逻辑值得深思。

However, at present, the hot state of "new forces" in the capital market dissipates as quickly as it comes. Why do American investors choose to leave during the outbreak of new energy vehicles in China? The reason and logic are worth pondering.

高速增长仍在继续

High growth continues

"2021年，新能源汽车的销售趋势好于预期，呈现出高起点。"

"In 2021, the sales trend of new energy vehicles is better than expected, showing a high starting point."

今年2月初，高地资本（highland capital）宣布了截至2020年第四季度末的美股头寸。文件显示，张磊已将理想、小鹏、伟来的全部股份清仓。

In early February, highland capital announced its position in US stocks as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. According to the documents, Zhang Lei has cleared all the shares of ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai.

IPO前的理想和小鹏的迅速离职，意味着张磊只做了短期套利，他对"新势力"的看法不变。

The ideal of pre IPO and Xiaopeng's rapid departure mean that Zhang Lei has only made a short-term arbitrage, and his view on "new forces" remains unchanged.

高地资本退出的消息传出后，这种消极态度在市场上迅速蔓延。最近半个月，这三家汽车公司的股价下跌了20%-30%。

After the news of the exit of highland capital came out, this kind of negative attitude spread rapidly in the market. In the last half month, the stock prices of the three auto companies have fallen by 20% - 30%.

对于典型的新力成长股来说，其产品在市场上的表现以及企业财务数据的变化都会直接影响股价的变化。

For the typical growth stock of new force, the performance of its products in the market and the change of enterprise financial data will have a direct impact on the change of stock price.

粗略地说，新势力的市场表现并不差，但2021年1月的环比增长数字与2020年12月相比并不好。

Roughly speaking, the market performance of the new forces is not bad, but the month on month growth figures in January 2021 are not good compared with December 2020.

利润在转移

Profits are shifting

过度竞争是现阶段更可能影响新能源汽车企业利润的关键因素。

Excessive competition is the key factor that is more likely to affect the profits of new energy vehicle enterprises at this stage.

投资者对上市公司的出价取决于诸多因素，但归根结底是对其未来盈利能力的判断。

Investors' bid for listed companies depends on many factors, but in the final analysis, it is the judgment of their future profitability.

具体到"新势力"，今天的悲观和看跌意味着华尔街投资者判断三家企业的利润将由市场转移。

Specific to the "new forces", today's pessimism and bearish means that Wall Street investors judge that the profits of the three enterprises will be transferred by the market.

在一个快速发展的行业里，企业的利润谁来拿，为什么会消失？

In a fast-growing industry, who will take the profits of enterprises and why will they disappear?

根据商业评论，影响新力汽车企业利润的因素大致可以分为三类

According to the business review, the factors that affect the profits of new force auto companies can be roughly divided into three categories

1强有力的政策监管削弱了企业的盈利能力和成长性；

1. Strong policy supervision weakens the profitability and growth of enterprises;

2行业陷入过度竞争，导致每家公司都没有利润；

2. The industry has fallen into excessive competition, leading to no profit for each company;

三。该行业蓬勃发展，对上游和关键配件需求旺盛。然而，上游不能快速满足需求，导致上游供应商价格上涨，利润向产业链上游转移。

3. The industry is booming, and there is a strong demand for upstream and key accessories. However, the upstream cannot meet the demand quickly, which leads to the price increase of upstream suppliers and the profit transfer to the upstream of the industrial chain.

作为全球政策扶持的新兴产业，新能源汽车具有规模大、产业链长、就业人数多的特点。因此，不"杀鸡取卵"的不仅是中国，而且是各国政府。现阶段，他们将进行非常规监管或增加税负。

As an emerging industry supported by global policies, new energy vehicles have the characteristics of large scale, long industrial chain and a large number of employment. Therefore, it is not only China, but also the governments of all countries that will not "kill the chicken to get the egg". At this stage, they will carry out unconventional supervision or increase the tax burden.

过度竞争是现阶段更可能影响新能源汽车企业利润的关键因素。2020年，作为新能源汽车的"大年"，三新势力产销将有较大幅度增长，将受到首都的欢迎。这将从三个角度吸引更多的竞争对手。

Excessive competition is the key factor that is more likely to affect the profits of new energy vehicle enterprises at this stage. In 2020, as the "big year" of new energy vehicles, the production and sales of the three new forces will increase by a large margin, and will be welcomed by the capital. This will attract more competitors from three angles.

首先是资本进入。由于市场价值高，被市场高估，这三家企业必然会吸引那些没能进入市场的人来支持他们可以参与的项目。如威马、哪吒、路驰等车企在发展大势下仍在资本推动下计划上市，这显然意味着它们在行业内估值较高；

The first is capital entry. Given high market value and overvalued value by the market, the three enterprises will inevitably attract those who have not been able to enter the market to support the projects that they can participate in. For example, Weima, Nezha, lucid and other auto enterprises are still promoted by capital to plan to go public under the general development situation, which obviously means that they have high valuation in the industry;

其次，大规模布局传统燃油汽车企业。如果说传统燃油汽车企业在2020年前对新能源仍持怀疑态度，那么在2020年行业热情高涨之后，我国大部分传统汽车企业早已忧心忡忡，并确定这是汽车产业发展的必然趋势。

Secondly, the large-scale layout of traditional fuel vehicle enterprises. If the traditional fuel vehicle enterprises are still skeptical of new energy before 2020, then after the industry's enthusiasm in 2020, most of the traditional vehicle enterprises in China are already worried, and it is determined that this is the inevitable trend of the development of the automobile industry.

经过对2020年、2021年的观察、讨论和规划，我们可以看到更多的传统汽车企业正在新能源汽车领域发力，包括长城汽车（02333）、吉利（geometry）、北汽（arcfox）、上汽（R）等企业正在通过建立新的品牌进入新能源汽车市场。

After observation, discussion and planning in 2020, in 2021, we can see that more traditional automobile enterprises are making efforts in new energy vehicles, including Great Wall Motor (02333) (Euler), Geely (geometry), BAIC (arcfox), SAIC (R) and other enterprises are entering the new energy vehicle market by establishing new brands.

理想的汽车股价格表现

Ideal auto stock price performance

面对这些强大的竞争对手，理想、小鹏、威莱即使存在品牌壁垒和消费者心理优势，也不可避免地受到市场地位的冲击。资本有充分的理由在这个时候选择怀疑。

In the face of these strong competitors, ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai will inevitably be impacted on their market position even if they have brand barriers and consumers' mental advantages. There are good reasons for capital to choose to doubt at this time.

无忧产业链

Worry free industrial chain

在新能源汽车的背景下，产业链企业的地位有可能比传统燃料汽车时代更具实力。

In the context of new energy vehicles, the status of industry chain enterprises is likely to be more powerful than that of traditional fuel vehicle era.

除了"新能源换燃料汽车企业"的影响外，产业链上的利润竞争也是影响新能源汽车企业利润的重要因素。

In addition to the impact of "new energy for fuel vehicle enterprises", the competition for profits in the industrial chain is also an important factor affecting the profits of new energy vehicle enterprises.

要理解新能源汽车厂商为何会被产业链掠夺利润，必须从燃油汽车产业的发展历史中寻找规律。

To understand why new energy vehicle manufacturers will be robbed of profits by the industrial chain, it is necessary to find the law from the development history of the fuel vehicle industry.

20世纪50年代以后，欧、日、韩三国汽车工业迅速崛起，特别是日本汽车工业受益于国际产业转移，发展迅速，与美国汽车工业形成了强大的竞争。

After the 1950s, the automobile industry in Europe, Japan and South Korea rose rapidly, especially Japan's automobile industry benefited from the international industrial transfer, developed rapidly and formed a strong competition with the American automobile industry.

随着汽车产业由寡头垄断向分散化发展，国际分工体系日益成熟和清晰，国际视野下的汽车产业开始形成零部件集中+品牌多元化的产业格局。

With the development of automobile industry from oligopoly to decentralization, and the increasingly mature and clear international division of labor system, the automobile industry in the international perspective began to form an industrial pattern of "parts concentration + brand diversification".

单个汽车零部件的规模化生产可以形成规模优势，降低产品价格。对于每一个独立的汽车制造商和品牌来说，从零部件供应商那里购买然后组装整车已经成为共识，因为在这种情况下，整车的成本是最低的。

Large scale production of single auto parts can form scale advantage and lower product price. For each independent vehicle manufacturer and brand, it has become a consensus to buy from the parts supplier and then assemble the whole vehicle, because in this case, the cost of the whole vehicle is the lowest.

零部件体系的标准化和集中化，反过来又促进了品牌的多元化。汽车企业可以将各种零部件进行组合，配合新的外观设计，形成各种新车系列。

The standardization and concentration of parts system, in turn, promotes the diversification of brands. Car enterprises can combine all kinds of parts, cooperate with new appearance design, and form all kinds of new car series.

事实上，在新能源汽车兴起之前，一些燃油车企业正在推广"模块化"生产模式。

In fact, before the rise of new energy vehicles, some fuel vehicle companies are promoting the "modular" production mode.

在新能源汽车时代，汽车零部件的数量更加一体化，急剧减少，更适合大规模生产，降低成本，促进汽车品牌多元化。这可以看作是"零部件集中+品牌多元化"的2.0版本。

In the era of new energy vehicles, the number of auto parts is more integrated and sharply reduced, which is more suitable for large-scale production to reduce costs and promote the diversification of vehicle brands. This can be seen as the 2.0 version of "parts concentration + brand diversification".

在新能源汽车的背景下，产业链企业的地位有可能比传统燃料时代更加强大。此前，在《苹果汽车制造引发的蝴蝶效应》一文中，《商业评论》列举了几家充分受益于此的上市公司。

In the context of new energy vehicles, the status of industry chain enterprises is likely to be more powerful than that of traditional fuel era. Previously, in the article "butterfly effect caused by Apple's car making", the business review listed several listed companies that fully benefited from this.

利益的背后是产业链上下游与整车厂商之间的利润波动。

Behind the benefit is the profit fluctuation between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the vehicle manufacturers.

此外，新能源汽车的核心部件，如三电系统和各种线路，都需要使用大量的铜。这是一个以前几乎没有出现过的新需求。这对全球（尤其是中国）的铜供应构成了巨大的挑战。正因如此，全球铜价在过去一段时间内迅速上涨。

In addition, the core parts of new energy vehicles, such as the three electric systems and all kinds of lines, need to use a lot of copper. This is a new demand that has hardly appeared before. It poses a great challenge to the global (especially China) copper supply. For this reason, the global copper price has risen rapidly in the past.

一旦上游供应商足够强大，他们就可以顺利地将铜价上涨带来的高成本转移给下游汽车制造商。为了保持消费端的价格竞争力，汽车制造商无法进行进一步的成本传导。这种情况显然是不利的。

Once the upstream suppliers are strong enough, they can smoothly transfer the high cost caused by the rising copper price to the downstream vehicle manufacturers. In order to maintain the price competitiveness at the consumer end, the vehicle manufacturers are unable to conduct further cost transmission. This situation is obviously not favorable.

写在最后

Write at the end

汽车原本是一种低粘度的消费品。

The car is originally a low viscosity consumer goods.

如果回忆一下自己或亲朋好友买车的经历，会发现消费者在买车时有很多选择，大多数消费者不会按照某个品牌购买第二辆车。

If you recall the experience of buying a car by yourself or relatives and friends, you can find that consumers have a lot of choices when buying a car, and most of them will not buy a second car according to a certain brand.

新能源汽车也是如此。这是一个需求多样化的市场。有人想要更好的辅助驾驶技术，有人想要更豪华的内饰，有人只凭一个"品牌"就选择特斯拉。

The same is true for new energy vehicles. This is a market with diversified demands. Some people want better auxiliary driving technology, some people want more luxurious interior, and some people choose Tesla only by one "brand".

但在目前的美国股市中，特斯拉拥有先发优势、成本优势，并建立了科技品牌Tonity（纳斯达克：TSLA)市场价值已经远远超过了"新车制造力量"的总和。

But in the current U.S. stock market, Tesla has first mover advantage, cost advantage, and established a technology brand tonality（ NASDAQ:TSLA ）The market value has far exceeded the sum of the "new car building forces".

从燃油汽车发展的历史进程来看，这是一种不可持续的现象。

From the historical process of the development of fuel vehicles, this is an unsustainable phenomenon.

随着新能源汽车产业的发展，消费者对汽车的多样化需求将不断得到释放和刺激，这对新生力量来说是一个更加有利的局面。但享受这些利益的前提，是不能在接下来的过度竞争中被拖得半死。

With the development of new energy vehicle industry, consumers' diversified demand for automobiles will be continuously released and stimulated, which is a more favorable situation for new forces. But the premise of enjoying such benefits is not to be dragged to death in the following excessive competition.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210228/20210228A044F400.html

update time：2021-03-01 14:59:46