Behind the five-day shutdown of Weilai: the import rate of chips reaches 90%, how can domestic chips break the situation?

在以华为为代表的国产手机被国外卡住脖子后，人们突然意识到芯片的重要性。最近，这股"芯片故障潮"已经蔓延到汽车行业。

After Huawei, the representative of domestic mobile phones, was stuck in the neck by foreign countries, people suddenly realized the importance of chips. Recently, this "tide of chip failure" has extended to the automotive industry.

威莱宣布合肥工厂停产5天后，其股价连续两天下跌。截至3月30日，威莱美股收盘报35.53美元/股，累计下跌6.49%。

Five days after Weilai announced that the Hefei plant would stop production, its stock price fell for two consecutive days. As of March 30, Weilai's US stock closed at US $35.53 per share, a cumulative decline of 6.49%.

小芯片为什么能直接导致汽车停产？

Why can a small chip directly cause the car to stop production?

如果以人体为类比，芯片就相当于人脑和中枢系统。芯片也因类型不同而用于不同的产品中。比如通信芯片适用于手机，CPU适用于电脑，汽车级芯片是指适合汽车电子元器件规格和标准的芯片。虽然威莱没有透露具体的芯片型号，但不少专家认为，主要原因是板载MCU芯片和IGBT芯片不足。

If we use the human body as an analogy, the chip is equivalent to the human brain and central system. Chips are also used in different products because of different types. For example, communication chips are suitable for mobile phones, CPU is suitable for computers, and car level chips refer to the chips that are suitable for the specifications and standards of automotive electronic components. Although Weilai did not disclose the specific chip model, many experts believe that the main reason is the shortage of on-board MCU chips and IGBT chips.

单片机芯片是汽车控制系统的核心之一。一辆车上有几十、几百个单片机，构成了汽车电子系统的神经网络。不仅新能源汽车需要芯片，传统汽车也需要MCU芯片。"深科研究院院长张晓荣对野马财经表示。

"MCU chip is one of the cores of automobile control system. There are dozens and hundreds of MCU in a car, which constitute the neural network of automobile electronic system. Not only new energy vehicles need chips, but traditional vehicles also need MCU chips. " Zhang Xiaorong, President of deep science and Technology Research Institute, told YEMA finance.

为什么这么重要的芯片会造成短缺？疫情是2020年不可避免的话题，汽车行业也是如此。

Why is such an important chip causing a shortage? Epidemic situation is an unavoidable topic in 2020, as well as in the automobile industry.

"其实之前车规级MCU芯片的产能已经饱和，但在流行的过程中，这方面的需求减少了。疫情爆发后，整个市场的集中需求爆发，但芯片产能供应无法满足，导致供需失衡。"前门资产投研总监宣继友对野马财经表示。

"In fact, the production capacity of vehicle gauge level MCU chips was saturated before, but in the process of epidemic, the demand in this aspect decreased. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the concentrated demand of the whole market broke out, but the chip capacity supply could not be met, resulting in the imbalance between supply and demand. " Xuan Jiyou, director of Qianmen asset investment and research, told YEMA finance.

具体来说，疫情导致的无法外出抑制了包括购车在内的很多消费需求。然而，对手机、电脑和其他电子产品的需求正在爆炸式增长。芯片供应商根据需求减少汽车芯片产能，增加手机、电脑等芯片产能。

In detail, the inability to go out due to the epidemic has inhibited a lot of consumer demand, including car purchase. However, the demand for mobile phones, computers and other electronic products is exploding. Chip suppliers reduce the production capacity of automotive chips according to the demand, and increase the production capacity of mobile phones, computers and other chips.

"芯片短缺问题不仅存在于中国汽车行业或全球汽车行业，而且已经延伸到家电、手机、游戏机等智能终端领域。中国汽车工业协会副秘书长李少华曾公开表示："正是因为中国汽车市场复苏较快，我们才更早地反映出来。"。

"The problem of chip shortage does not only exist in China's automobile industry or the global automobile industry, but has extended to the fields of home appliances, mobile phones, game consoles and other intelligent terminals. It is only because China's automobile market recovers faster that we reflect it earlier." Li Shaohua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, once said publicly.

国产芯片的困境

The dilemma of domestic chips

对于威来来说，这次停产最直接的影响就是产量。威莱表示，半导体的整体供应限制影响了公司2021年3月的生产。该公司预计2021年第一季度的交付量将降至19500辆，比之前预测的20000辆至20500辆减少1000辆。

For Weilai, the most direct impact of this shutdown is the output. Weilai said that the overall supply restriction of semiconductors had affected the company's production in March 2021. The company expects delivery to drop to 19500 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, down 1000 vehicles from the previous forecast of 20000 to 20500.

根据威来汽车2020年年报，威来汽车2020年总收入162.579亿元，同比增长107.8%；汽车销售151.825亿元，同比增长106.1%；净亏损53.04亿元，同比下降53.0%一年。

According to the annual report of Weilai in 2020, Weilai's total revenue in 2020 was RMB 16.257.9 billion, an increase of 107.8% over the same period of last year; its auto sales was RMB 15.182.5 billion, an increase of 106.1% over the same period of last year; its net loss was RMB 5.304.1 billion, a decrease of 53.0% over the same period of last year.

"缺乏核心"危机既是危险，也是机遇。

The "lack of core" crisis is both a danger and an opportunity.

被美国卡在脖子上，很多人开始对国产芯片抱有很大希望。

Stuck in the neck by the United States, many people began to have great hope for domestic chips.

事实上，不少专家表示，车载MCU芯片的技术难度并不高。与电子消费芯片技术创新的速度相比，汽车限界级芯片技术还处于起步阶段。

In fact, many experts said that the technical difficulty of vehicle MCU chip is not high. Compared with the speed of technological innovation of electronic consumer chip, the technology of vehicle gauge level chip is still ten years ago.

关键难点在于车载产品的零故障要求。与消费电子芯片相比，手机芯片的缺陷率不到万分之二，而汽车级芯片的缺陷率为百万分之一，相当于零，因为它关系到行车安全，质量要求达到aec-q100一级。同时，消费电子芯片的使用寿命约为1-3年，而汽车级芯片的使用寿命至少为15-20年。

The key difficulty lies in the requirement of zero failure for on-board products. Compared with consumer electronics chips, the defect rate of mobile phone chips is less than 2 per 10000, while the defect rate of car level chips is 1 per million, which is equivalent to zero, because it is related to driving safety, and the quality requirement reaches aec-q100 grade 1. At the same time, the service life of consumer electronics chips is about 1-3 years, while the service life of car level chips is at least 15-20 years.

为了保证不良率，汽车厂商往往对芯片厂的生产线建设有很高的认证要求。另外，一条生产线从下订单到完工至少需要半年时间。因此，大多数汽车厂商在选择芯片厂后不会轻易更换厂商。"研发周期长，设计门槛高，资金投入也大。

In order to ensure the defect rate, automobile manufacturers often have very high certification requirements for the production line construction of the chip factory. In addition, it takes at least half a year to complete a production line from placing an order to completing. Therefore, most automobile manufacturers will not easily replace the manufacturer after selecting the chip factory. "The R & D cycle is long, the design threshold is high, and the capital investment is also large." Zhang Xiaorong said.

超高的质量要求和生产线规定让大多数厂商望而却步，这导致芯片厂商依赖进口的模式难以解决，国内芯片厂商更难抢占一块蛋糕。在海外供应商紧缺的情况下，国内芯片厂商正迎来机遇。

The ultra-high quality requirements and production line regulations make most manufacturers flinch, which leads to the mode that chip manufacturers rely on imports is difficult to solve, and it is more difficult for domestic chip manufacturers to seize a cake. In the case of shortage of overseas suppliers, domestic chip manufacturers are ushering in opportunities.

中信证券分析，在消费电子领域，2020年下半年，部分解决方案提供商将逐步用国产MCU芯片替代意大利半导体等厂商的MCU。在汽车领域，国内企业已通过aec-q100认证，各厂商有望迎来引进汽车产品的机会。

According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, in the field of consumer electronics, in the second half of 2020, some solution providers will gradually replace the MCU of Italian semiconductor and other manufacturers with domestic MCU chips. In the automotive field, domestic companies have passed the aec-q100 certification, and all manufacturers are expected to usher in the opportunity of introducing automotive products.

2020年10月，36氪报道称，威莱正计划开发自己的自主驾驶计算芯片。李斌还说，"开发自动驾驶芯片并不难，比手机芯片容易。"

In October 2020, 36 krypton reported that Weilai is planning to develop its own autonomous driving computing chip. Li Bin also said, "it's not difficult to develop self driving chip, which is easier than mobile phone chip."

比亚迪并未受到芯片危机爆发的影响，甚至表示仍有一定的市场化运作空间。

BYD has not been affected by the outbreak of the chip crisis, and even said that there is still some margin for market-oriented operation.

此外，五菱还表示，将成立TDC芯片本地化工作组。吉利、长城等众多独立车企已经开始踏上自主芯片研发之路。

In addition, Wuling said it would set up a TDC chip localization working group. Geely, great wall and many other independent car companies have begun to step on the road of independent chip research and development.

虽然国产MCU已经取得了一些突破，但它始终专注于低端产品领域是不争的事实。我国关键芯片制造领域仍存在较大短板，光刻胶等制造设备仍严重依赖国外厂商，自主研发技术难度较大，许多技术在我国短期内仍无法突破。

Although domestic MCU has made some breakthroughs, it is an indisputable fact that it always focuses on the field of low-end products. There are still large short boards in the key chip manufacturing field in China, and the manufacturing equipment such as photoresist still relies heavily on foreign manufacturers, so it is difficult to independently research and develop technologies, and many technologies are still unable to break through in the short term in China.

"芯片短缺是一个灰色犀牛事件。国内替代的道路一定是漫长的。"张晓荣说。

"Chip shortage is a grey rhinoceros event. The road of domestic substitution must be long and long. " Zhang Xiaorong said.

你认为如何替换中国制造的芯片？欢迎发表评论。

What do you think of the way to replace chips made in China? Welcome to comment below.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210330/20210330A0D5EB00.html

update time：2021-03-31 14:51:27