Paopao Ma te's market value has been cut, why is Maotai not popular in the world of fashion and play?

文乔学薛玉洁

Wen qiaoxue Xue Yujie

因为它能给消费者带来不可替代的精神享受，泡沫集市盲盒的疯狂正从消费市场延伸到资本市场。

Because it can bring consumers irreplaceable spiritual enjoyment, the frenzy of bubble Mart blind box is extending from the consumer market to the capital market.

自2020年12月上市以来，股价一路飙升。最高市值一度超过1000亿美元，市盈率飙升了200倍以上，这也使得泡沫香港在时尚界被称为茅台。随着泡沫集市的高估，整个时尚游戏产业迅速扩张，玩家纷至沓来，资本不断涌入，迅速进入战国时代。

Since its listing in December 2020, the stock price has been soaring all the way. The highest market value once exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the price earnings ratio has soared by more than 200 times, which also makes bubble Mart known as Maotai in the fashion industry. With the overestimation of bubble mart, the whole fashion game industry expanded rapidly, players poured in one after another, capital kept pouring, and quickly entered the Warring States era.

然而，泡沫集市未能延续其高增长传奇。截至3月30日，泡沫集市的股价为60.3港元。从上市后的高点107.6港元到现在，股价下跌了近50%，市值蒸发了700多亿港元。这意味着资本市场已经开始冷静理性地对待泡沫集市。3月26日财报发布后，股价虽有小幅上涨，但距离辉煌时期的千亿市值仍有较大差距。

However, bubble Mart failed to continue its high growth legend. As of March 30, the share price of bubble Mart was at HK $60.3. From the high point of HK $107.6 after listing to now, the share price has dropped nearly 50%, and the market value has evaporated more than HK $70 billion. This means that the capital market has begun to treat bubble Mart calmly and rationally. After the financial report was released on March 26, the stock price rose slightly, but it is still far away from the 100 billion market value in the glorious period.

资本不再是爱。被称为"00后茅台"的泡沫集市神话被打破了吗？

Capital is no longer loving. Has the bubble Mart myth known as "Maotai after 00" been broken?

卖出5000万+超万，线下贡献有待加强

Sell 50 million + Chaowan, offline contribution to be strengthened

在泡沫商业上市后的第一份财报中，全年实现营业收入25.13亿元，同比增长49.3%。调整后的净利润为5.9亿元，销售时尚玩具5000多万件。

In the first financial report after the listing of bubble mart, the annual revenue was 2.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%. The adjusted net profit was 590 million yuan, and more than 50 million trendy toys were sold.

然而，值得注意的是，收入的增长率几乎出现了急剧下降。2018年、2019年和2020年，泡沫商业城总收入同比增长率分别为225.5%、227.2%和49.3%。

However, it is worth noting that the growth rate of revenue almost showed a precipitous decline. The year-on-year growth rates of total revenue of bubble Mart in 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 225.5%, 227.2% and 49.3% respectively.

线下收入增速放缓，但线下零售店市场依然堪忧。对于新潮的游戏行业来说，线下商店的玩具展示和购物氛围可以激发年轻人的消费欲望，给消费者更丰富的情感体验。当然，泡沫集市的竞争对手不会错过扩张的机会。

The growth rate of offline revenue is slowing down, but the market of offline retail stores is still anxious. For the trendy play industry, the toy display and shopping atmosphere of offline stores can stimulate young people's consumption desire and give consumers richer emotional experience. Naturally, the competitors of bubble mart will not miss the opportunity of expansion.

酷潮玩网下门店有200多家，杂货俱乐部也推出了各种系列的盲盒。目前，全国有200多家线下专卖店，全国有2000多家专卖店的名优产品也瞄准盲盒市场的契机，推出了自己的品牌"toptoy"。竞争对手要征服这座城市并不容易。在过去的五年里只有不到200家商店。如何提高线下收入是我们必须面对的重要问题。

There are more than 200 offline stores of cool chaoplay, and the sundries club has also launched a variety of series of blind boxes. At present, there are more than 200 offline stores, and the famous and high-quality products with more than 2000 stores across the country also aim at the opportunity of blind box Market and launch their own brand "toptoy". It's not easy for competitors to conquer the city. There are only less than 200 stores in the past five years. How to enhance the offline revenue is an important problem that we have to face.

特朗普出来了，你在吃青春饭吗？

Trump out, IP are eating youth rice?

莫莉是让泡泡妈发财的"关键女孩"。开始时，正是在香港设计师王欣明设计的莫莉形象的帮助下，Pao Ma TE一下子就扭亏为盈，甚至帮助她走上了盲人之路。

Molly is the "key girl" who made Paopao Ma te rich. At the beginning, it was with the help of Molly image designed by Hong Kong designer Wang Xinming that Pao Ma te turned losses into profits at one stroke, and even helped her walk on the road of blind box.

巢湾的核心竞争力是知识产权。潮湾创办人王宁曾说："泡沫集市想成为这个时代的唱片公司。我希望每一个IP都能像周杰伦和王菲那样成为持久的爆炸性产品。"因此，这也形成了泡沫集市的IP运营模式。设计师专注于知识产权的建设，其余的则由泡泡集市负责，包括孵化、构建供应链、营销和销售。

The core competitiveness of Chaowan is IP. Wang Ning, the founder of Chaowan, once said, "bubble Mart wants to be a record company of this era. I hope that every IP will become such an enduring explosive product as Jay Chou and Faye Wong. " Therefore, this has also formed the IP operation mode of bubble Mart. Designers focus on building IP, and the rest is in the charge of bubble mart, including incubation, building supply chain, marketing and sales.

以茅台酒为例。虽然除了53度飞天茅台，还有很多系列的老酒，但飞天是茅台经久不衰的拳头产品，很难找。另一方面，泡沫集市有这样的产品吗？

Take Maotai as an example. Although there are many series of vintage wines in addition to 53 degree Feitian Maotai, Feitian is Maotai's enduring fist product, which is hard to find. On the other hand, does bubble Mart have such a product?

根据2020年的财报数据，莫莉今年的销售额仍然可观，达到3.57亿港元，占比14.2%。莫莉仍然是泡泡市场的领导者。不过，值得注意的是，与2019年底的4.56亿港元相比，莫莉的销售额要低得多。随着总收入的增长，领头羊的特朗普产品不仅没有增长，反而有了很大的倒退。

According to the financial report data in 2020, Molly's sales volume this year is still considerable, reaching HK $357 million, accounting for 14.2%. Molly is still the leader of bubble Mart. However, it is worth noting that compared with HK $456 million at the end of 2019, Molly's sales volume is much lower. With the growth of total revenue, the leader's trump products not only have no growth, but also have a big step backward.

很长一段时间以来，莫莉一直在为泡沫集市贡献更大份额的收入。2017年至2019年，茉莉系列实现营收分别为4101.9万元、2.14亿元和4.56亿元，分别占总营收的26.3%、42.6%和27.4%。但现在看来，泡沫集市的持久IP远未形成，与"常青树"的距离更大

For a long time, Molly has been contributing a larger share of the revenue to bubble Mart. From 2017 to 2019, Molly series achieved revenue of 41.019 million yuan, 214 million yuan and 456 million yuan respectively, accounting for 26.3%, 42.6% and 27.4% of the total revenue respectively. But now, it seems that the long-lasting IP of bubble mart is far from being formed, and the distance to "evergreen" is even longer

总IP收入比重下降，IP活力不够持久，需要迭代才能适应市场。Bubble Mart只能继续寻找新的IP。财报显示，2020年，泡沫商业新授权IP的无形资产比上一年的1860万增加了7000万。

The proportion of head IP revenue is declining, the vitality of IP is not long enough, and it needs to iterate to meet the market. Bubble Mart can only keep looking for new IP. According to the financial report, the intangible assets of the newly authorized IP of bubble Mart increased by 70 million in 2020, compared with 18.6 million in the previous year.

由于"时尚玩偶就是设计师能生火的玩偶"的特性，自主研发的IP具有很大的不确定性和成本。

For the property of "fashion play is the doll that designers can create fire", self-developed IP has great uncertainty and cost.

2016年，与茉莉设计师王新明签约后，泡泡城根据销售情况支付了固定的年费和设计费。2019年6月，王新明出资345万元购买了泡沫商业2%的股份。事实上，即使按照泡沫集市从新三板退市时20亿美元的估值，这2%股权的价值也超过1.7亿美元。

In 2016, after signing a contract with Wang Xinming, the designer of Molly, bubble Mart paid a fixed annual fee and design fee according to the sales situation. In June 2019, Wang Xinming paid 3.45 million yuan to buy 2% shares of bubble Mart. In fact, even according to the valuation of $2 billion when bubble Mart delisted from the new third board, the value of the 2% equity is more than $170 million.

仅用345万元，公司就卖出了价值1.7亿元的股票。其背后是大IP设计师的话语权非常高，这也是泡沫集市必须做出的妥协。去年，设计师一直处于混乱之中。许多老玩家纷纷退场表示抵制，莫莉的销量也在财报中大打折扣。这笔交易有点"亏本"。

With only 3.45 million yuan, the company sold 170 million yuan worth of shares. Behind it is that the big IP designers have a very high voice, and it is also a compromise that bubble Mart has to make. Last year, the designer was in constant turmoil. Many old players retreated to express their boycott, and Molly's sales volume was greatly reduced in the financial report. This deal was a bit of "loss".

另一方面，自身造血功能尚未形成。除莫莉和迪莫外，泡沫集市的其他尾盘IP仍处于跳水阶段，另外两个自有IP收入加起来也只有1000多万。此外，为了打造出下一个与莫莉相似的人气模特，泡泡玛特拥有一批时装设计师。目前，内部设计师团队原创IP产生的收入也不大，只有1亿多元。

On the other hand, the function of autohemopoiesis has not yet been formed. Except Molly and dimmo, other tail IP of bubble mart are still in the diving stage, and the other two own IP revenues add up to only more than 10 million. In addition, in order to create the next popular model similar to Molly, bubble Mart has a group of fashion designers. At present, the revenue generated by the internal designer team's original IP is also small, only more than 100 million yuan.

据介绍，2020年独家经销商收入占总收入的17.7%，与其他厂商总收入2.9%的增长不相关，是非常成功的。

According to the report, the revenue of exclusive dealers accounted for 17.7% of the total revenue in 2020, which was not related to the total revenue growth of 2.9% of the total revenue of other vendors It's a lot of success.

似乎创建IP并不容易，获得一个受欢迎度高、用户忠诚度高的IP更划算。2020年，泡泡集市与世界知名IP合作推出《哈利波特》、《火影忍者》等系列，已经拥有完整的世界和人类IP。经过多年甚至几十年的故事积累，他们积累了一批忠实的粉丝。《哈利波特魔法世界系列》的销售额将达到7600万元，《坐着的家庭2-迪士尼公主》系列的销售额将达到5200万元。而不是独家授权，合作意味着这是一个每个人都可以做的生意。

It seems that it is not easy to create IP, and it is more cost-effective to acquire an IP with high popularity and user loyalty. In 2020, bubble Mart cooperates with world-famous IP to launch Harry Potter, Naruto and other series, which already have complete world and human IP. With years or even decades of story accumulation, they have accumulated a group of loyal fans. The sales of "Harry Potter Magic World Series" will reach 76 million yuan, and the sales of "sitting family 2 - Disney Princess" series will reach 52 million yuan . Instead of exclusive authorization, cooperation means that it's a business that everyone can do.

泡泡集市，是继续跌入不断寻找新IP的道路，还是，也开始为娃娃们讲故事，这是一个有待解决的问题。

Bubble mart, is to continue to fall into the road of constantly looking for new IP, or, also began to tell stories for the dolls, this is a question to be solved.

上下，下一批年轻人在哪里？

Up or down, where to find the next group of young people?

"我以前经常进坑（打盲箱），平均每个月要花几百块钱。后来，我觉得自己没有任何坚持的动力，于是留下一些藏钱，其他的就卖了鱼，还回了坑里。后来，我沉迷于打牌，我已经几百岁了。后来，我和同学们一起做了自己的宝宝（买手工材料，DIY）。不管怎样，我没有存钱。后来我发现我只是想买，但买什么并不重要，"上海的大学生小鹏告诉我。

"I used to go into the pit (play blind box), and spent hundreds of money every month on average. Later, I felt that I didn't have any motivation to insist on it, so I left some hidden money, and the others were sold on the fish and returned to the pit. Later, I was addicted to drawing cards, and I was a few hundred years old. Later, I played with my classmates to make my own baby (buy Handmade materials, DIY). Anyway, I didn't save the money. Later I found out that I just want to buy, but what I buy doesn't matter, "Xiao Peng, a college student in Shanghai, told me.

小鹏的选择反映了年轻人的一种趋势，即无论发生什么火灾，他们都会在短时间内追逐。盲箱无非是在打击年轻人敏感的神经，但能否持续下去还很难说。

Xiao Peng's choice reflects a trend among young people that they will chase after whatever fire happens in a short period of time. The blind box is nothing more than hitting the sensitive nerves of young people, but whether it can last is hard to say.

然而，只要市场占有率足够大，即使对于像流水一样的年轻人来说，时尚企业也是铁磨石。

However, as long as the market share is large enough, even for the young people like running water, the fashion business is an iron millstone.

在日本新潮的游戏市场上，万达一直是一家领先的企业。2015年，其市场份额达到62%。虽然其竞争对手近年来有所增加，市场份额有所下降，但2019年仍占57.5%。正是这样，日本动画片知识产权如此频繁的变化才可以走过70年。

Wandai has always been a leading enterprise in Japan's trendy game market. In 2015, its market share reached 62%. Although its competitors increased and its market share decreased in recent years, it still accounted for 57.5% in 2019. It is in this way that the animation IP changes so frequently in Japan can go through 70 years.

对于泡沫集市来说，虽然它现在是第一家上市公司的新潮发挥，但要保持其领先地位并不容易。

For bubble mart, although it is now the first listed company of trendy play, it is not easy to keep its leading position.

根据佐斯特沙利文2019年研究报告的数据统计，泡沫集市的市场份额为8.5%，后四家的市场份额分别为7.7%、3.3%、1.7%和1.6%。整个时尚游戏产业还没有形成大的聚集效应，寡头优势还没有形成，泡沫集市与第二名的差距只有0.8%，只能说暂时坐上了王座。

According to the data statistics of zoster Sullivan's Research Report in 2019, the market share of bubble mart is 8.5%, and the market share of the last four is 7.7%, 3.3%, 1.7% and 1.6% respectively. The whole fashion game industry has not yet formed a large aggregation effect, oligarchic advantage has not yet formed, and the gap between bubble mart and the second place is only 0.8%, which can only be said to be temporarily sitting on the throne.

对于泡沫集市来说，继续走高抢占高端市场，以更高的顾客价格锚定人群，或者继续走低在二三线甚至更下沉的市场寻找机会，都是一个十字路口。

It is a crossroad for bubble mart to continue to go up and seize the higher end market, anchor the people with higher customer price, or continue to go down and seek opportunities in the second and third tier or even more sinking market.

放眼望去，在意识到潮剧是一片高增长率、高毛利的蓝海之后，巨人们率先尝试：优酷推出了《乡村爱情盲盒》系列；B站于2020年8月收购潮剧衍生品公司Actoys，其原本凭借二维优势直接进入海外动漫IP市场；2021年初，腾讯还推出"浩app"，涉及潮玩业务；百度还打造潮玩项目"热潮玩"，抢占潮玩市场。

Looking up, after realizing that chaoplay is a blue ocean with high growth rate and high gross profit, the giants took the lead in trying: Youku launched the blind box of rural love series; station B acquired chaoplay derivatives company Actoys in August 2020, which originally directly entered the overseas animation IP market by virtue of the advantages of two dimensions; at the beginning of 2021, Tencent also launched "Ho app", involving chaoplay business; Baidu also built chaoplay Project "hot tide play", seize the tide play market.

而向下看，泡沫集市也有更强大的竞争对手。它还专注于盲盒业务中的名优产品，并选择开辟另一条路。Toptoy与迪士尼、惊奇漫画共同打造时尚流行的产品。明创优品的优势之一在于它的渠道。截至2020年第二季度，明创优品全球门店4222家，其中在中国300多个城市有2500多家。它坚持追求终极性价比的做法，价格定在29.9元至39.9元，仅为泡沫集市的一半。

And downward, bubble Mart also has more powerful competitors. It also focuses on the famous and high-quality products in the blind box business, and chooses to open up another way. Toptoy, together with Disney and marvel, creates fashionable and popular products. One of the advantages of mingchuang Youpin lies in its channels. As of Q2 in 2020, there are 4222 global stores of mingchuang Youpin, among which there are more than 2500 in more than 300 cities in China. It adheres to the pursuit of the ultimate cost performance approach, and the price is set at 29.9 yuan to 39.9 yuan, only half of that of bubble Mart.

在速度方面，虽然著名的优质产品制造商top toy在2019年11月才进入市场，但今年它将开设100多家门店，这将很快赶上五年内拥有187家门店的bubble mart。

In terms of speed, although top toy, a famous maker of high-quality products, only entered the market in November 2019, this year it will open more than 100 stores, which will soon catch up with bubble mart, which has 187 stores in five years.

从财务报告来看，泡沫集市的确选择了一个更为低迷的市场。财报数据显示，线下渠道门店增长的47.52%来自二线及以下城市，机器人门店新增收入的65.21%来自二线及以下城市。

From the financial report, bubble Mart has indeed chosen a more sinking market. According to the financial report data, 47.52% of the growth of stores in offline channels was contributed by the second tier and below cities, and 65.21% of the new revenue of robot stores was provided by the second tier and below cities.

在讲述"中国迪斯尼乐园"的故事之前，我们还需要从零售业的角度来看待泡沫集市。其中，零售业的关键指标是库存周期。2017年至2019年，泡城存货周转天数分别为49天、46天和46天。与同龄人相比，波波玛低于傲飞娱乐、梅生文化和高仓。

Before telling the story of "China Disneyland", we still need to look at bubble Mart from the perspective of retail industry. Among them, the key indicator for retail is inventory cycle. From 2017 to 2019, the inventory turnover days of bubble mart are 49 days, 46 days and 46 days respectively. Compared with peers, bopoma is lower than aofei entertainment, Meisheng culture and Takara.

这也是上市之初市场估值居高不下的原因之一。低库存周转率反映了公司定期监控库存水平、合理预测销量和控制库存的能力。

This is one of the reasons for the high market valuation at the beginning of listing. The low inventory turnover reflects the company's ability to regularly monitor the inventory level, reasonably predict the sales volume and control the inventory.

然而，这一指标在2020年的财务报告中发生了变化，从2019年的46天变为2020年的78天。这意味着泡沫集市的赚钱效率已经放缓。

However, this indicator has changed in the financial report of 2020, from 46 days in 2019 to 78 days in 2020. This means that bubble mart's efficiency in making money has slowed down.

然而，竞争对手并没有放慢脚步。潮州游戏项目的一位投资者告诉科技星球，由于泡沫集市估值较高，潮州游戏出现了竞争对手。他们中的许多人筹集了新资金，并采取了更为激进的做法。"我会在泡泡集市开店的地方开店，甚至赢得比泡泡集市更好的职位。"。这也增加了泡沫集市的扩张成本。

However, the competitors did not slow down. An investor of Chaozhou game project told tech planet that due to the high valuation of bubble mart, Chaozhou game competitors emerged. Many of them raised new money and adopted a more aggressive approach. "I will open a shop where bubble Mart opens a shop, or even win a better position than bubble Mart.". This also increases the expansion cost of bubble Mart.

进入二三线和下沉市场，能否复制"京沪广深"一线城市门店的扁平效应？面对众多竞争对手进入这一潮流游戏，并与他们展开不同维度的竞争，泡沫集市如何才能真正领先？只有解决这些问题，才能真正筑起高壁垒，享受护城河带来的高毛利和高品牌溢价。

Can we copy the flat effect of stores in the first tier cities of "Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" by entering the second and third tier and sinking markets? In the face of many competitors entering the trendy game and competing with them in different dimensions, how can bubble Mart really take the lead? Only by solving these problems can we really build high barriers and enjoy the high gross profit and high brand premium brought by the moat.

就目前的情况来看，现在说泡沫集市的泡沫是茅台还为时过早，茅台是时尚界的年轻人。

As far as the current situation is concerned, it's still too early to say that bubble mart's bubble is Maotai, which is the youth in the fashion industry.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210401/20210401A0246000.html

update time：2021-04-01 10:48:31