Shenzhen.com Apple's push for new regulations triggered an earthquake of 100 billion advertising market: FB and other giants get stuck

制作人|深圳网﹣腾讯新闻小曼工作室

Produced by | shenzhen.com ﹣ Tencent News Xiaoman studio

"在IOS 14.5正式版推出之前，很多应用开发者、运营商和第三方归属公司都在积极研究归属解决方案，并与苹果斯卡德网合作进行技术对接和SDK操作更新，以减少苹果新规对自身广告业务的影响。"广告服务平台汇亮科技的一位内部人士告诉记者深圳网.

"Before the official version of IOS 14.5 was launched, many app developers, operators and third-party attribution companies were actively studying attribution solutions, and cooperated with Apple's skadnetwork for technology docking and updating SDK operations, so as to reduce the impact of Apple's new regulations on its own advertising business," an insider of ad service platform Huiliang technology told shenzhen.com.

所谓的苹果新规则指的是IDFA（广告标识）。IDFA是苹果公司在2012年推出的一种广告识别码，目的是为了避免用户无法向广告商透露UDID。现在，每个苹果手机都有自己的IDFA代码。用户手机上的应用程序可以使用IDFA识别用户的位置和跟踪，并根据用户的兴趣向用户推送准确的广告。在苹果更改IDFA规则之前，苹果手机用户的IDFA默认开启。

The so-called new Apple rules refer to IDFA (identifier for advertising). IDFA is an advertisement identifier introduced by apple in 2012 in order to avoid disclosing the UDID that users cannot change to advertisers. Now, every apple mobile phone has its own IDFA code. The app on the user's mobile phone can use IDFA to identify the user's location and tracking, and push accurate advertisements to the user based on the user's interest. Before Apple changed the IDFA rules, the IDFA of Apple mobile phone users was on by default.

根据苹果IDFA的最新规定，从IOS 14.5开始，如果苹果手机上的应用程序和运营商想要访问用户手机上的IDFA，他们会首先弹出一个提醒窗口，让用户选择是否允许跟踪自己的信息和数据。如果用户选择禁止信息跟踪，运营商将无法获得手机的IDFA码，取而代之的是一系列无意义的零。这意味着广告平台等向用户推荐准确广告的渠道将被切断，成为"盲区"。

According to the latest regulations of Apple's IDFA, starting from IOS 14.5, if the app and operators on Apple's mobile phone want to access the IDFA on the user's mobile phone, they will first pop up a reminder window to let the user choose whether to allow tracking their own information and data. If the user chooses to prohibit information tracking, the operator will not be able to obtain the IDFA code of the mobile phone, instead, it will be replaced by a series of meaningless zeros. This means that advertising platforms and other channels to recommend accurate advertising to users will be cut off, becoming "blind".

例如，一个美容品牌在一个应用程序上放置了一个广告。在新的IDFA规则之前，应用程序将收集用户的IDFA代码。如果用户在app上打开美容品牌的广告，美容品牌也能看到用户的IDFA码，双方都有广告归属和效果衡量的标准。现在，如果用户在安装应用程序时选择"不允许应用程序跟踪"选项，应用程序的广告收入来源将被切断。

For example, a beauty brand has placed an advertisement on an app. Before the new IDFA rules, the app will collect the user's IDFA code. If the user opens the advertisement of the beauty brand on the app, the beauty brand can also see the user's IDFA code, and both sides have the criteria for advertising attribution and effect measurement. Now, if users choose the option of "do not allow app tracking" when installing the app, the source of the app's advertising revenue will be cut off.

"苹果强行推广IDFA条款将对IOS系统的广告和结算生态产生影响。如果你想在IOS系统上创业赚钱，就必须适应苹果新的IDFA规则，更新SDK，并与苹果的skadnetwork连接。否则，你将被苹果公司下架。一位不愿透露姓名的应用程序开发人员无奈地对记者说："毕竟，你的胳膊撑不住你的腿深圳网.

"Apple's forced promotion of IDFA terms will have an impact on the advertising and settlement ecology of IOS system. If you want to start a business and make money on the IOS system, you must adapt to Apple's new IDFA rules, update the SDK, and connect with Apple's skadnetwork. Otherwise, you will be taken off the shelves by apple. After all, your arm can't hold your leg, "an app developer who didn't want to be named said helplessly to shenzhen.com.

苹果推动IDFA新规则的背后，是一场巨大的利益博弈。

Behind Apple's push for new IDFA rules is a huge game of interests.

"计划已久"

"Long planned"

苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在2021年1月举行的"计算机、隐私和数据保护会议"上说："如果我们接受生活中的一切都可以总结和出售是正常和不可避免的，那么我们失去的不仅是数据，还有做人的自由。"。

"If we accept that it is normal and inevitable that everything in our lives can be summarized and sold, then what we lose is not only data, but also the freedom to be human," Apple CEO Tim Cook said at the "computers, privacy, and Data Protection Conference" in January 2021.

库克将用户数据提升到人类自由的高度有很大的背景。就在6个月前，苹果推出了一项新的隐私政策。

Cook's promotion of user data to the height of human freedom has a big background. Just six months ago, Apple introduced a new privacy policy.

在2020年6月22日举行的世界开发者大会（WWDC）上，苹果宣布将更新广告平台规则，以在IOS 14系统中获得IDFA代码。根据新规定，未来app在获得IDFA时，需要推送窗口明确请求用户权限，就像获得地理位置和摄像头权限一样。这意味着，未经用户许可，数据不能用于定向广告，广告商也不能共享用户信息。这使得以往由IDFA实现的广告属性和效果测量几乎失效。

At the world Developers Conference (WWDC) held on June 22, 2020, Apple announced that it would update the rules for advertising platform to obtain IDFA code in IOS 14 system. According to the new regulations, in the future, app will need to push the window to explicitly request the user's permission when it obtains IDFA, just as it obtains geographical location and camera permissions. This means that without the permission of users, data cannot be used for targeted advertising, and advertisers cannot share users' information. This makes the past advertising attribution and effect measurement realized by IDFA nearly invalid.

总之，应用程序和广告平台配置skadnetwork后，也可以跟踪广告效果。然而，与IDFA跟踪用户和设备的数据不同，skadnetwork只跟踪用户的"行为"。

In short, after the app and advertising platform are configured with skadnetwork, they can also track the effect of advertising. However, unlike IDFA, which tracks the data of users and devices, skadnetwork only tracks the "behavior" of users.

在苹果官方看来，skadnetwork的配置可以帮助广告平台在保护用户隐私的同时实现广告归属和效果衡量。不过，根据IOS系统上应用程序和运营商的反馈，skadnetwork并不存在，因为直接获取用户的IDFA代码比适应skadnetwork要容易得多。

In Apple's official eyes, the configuration of skadnetwork can help the advertising platform to achieve advertising attribution and effect measurement while protecting users' privacy. However, according to the feedback from the app and operators on the IOS system, skadnetwork does not exist, because it is easier and easier to obtain the user's IDFA code directly than to adapt to skadnetwork.

"但现在不同了。这位企业家告诉记者，苹果推出IDFA新规后，如果应用或公司想留在IOS系统上，就必须研究自己的归属方案，并与苹果斯卡德网合作进行技术对接深圳网.

"But now it's different. After Apple pushes the new IDFA rules, if the app or the company wants to stay on the IOS system, it must study its own attribution scheme and cooperate with Apple's skadnetwork for technology docking," the entrepreneur told shenzhen.com.

图片来源：苹果网站

Photo source: Apple website

根据深圳网，苹果升级了skadnetwork，最新版本的skadnetwork2.2增加了更多功能。

According to shenzhen.com, Apple has upgraded its skadnetwork, and the latest version of skadnetwork 2.2 has added more features.

"拔河"

"Tug of war"

IDFA新规定一出台，立即被Facebook等国内外互联网公司反弹。"这就像IOS上的应用和苹果之间的拔河。上述业内人士向记者解释说："新规出台后，各利益相关方都在以各种方式试探对方的底线。"深圳网.

As soon as the new IDFA rules came out, they were immediately rebounded by domestic and foreign Internet companies such as Facebook. "It's like a tug of war between apps on IOS and apple. After the new rules were issued, all interested parties are trying to test each other's bottom line in various ways," the industry insiders explained to shenzhen.com.

2020年7月，Facebook首席财务官表示，苹果ios14操作系统可能会损害其社交网络提供准确广告的能力。大卫·维纳还强调，"Facebook的广告平台对小企业非常重要，因为Facebook和定向广告是小企业的命脉。任何人都可以轻松地向数百万人推销他们的产品和服务。我们担心激进的平台政策会切断这条生命线，这条生命线对流行病时代小企业的成长和复苏至关重要。"

In July 2020, the CFO of Facebook said that Apple's IOS 14 operating system may damage the ability of its social network to deliver accurate advertising. David Wiener also stressed that "Facebook's advertising platform is very important for small businesses, because Facebook and targeted advertising are the lifeblood of small businesses. Anyone can easily promote their products and services to millions of people. We are worried that the radical platform policy will cut off this lifeline, which is crucial to the growth and recovery of small businesses in the epidemic era. "

新的IDFA规则对Facebook有多大影响？根据Facebook的财报数据，2020年，公司营收为860亿美元，广告收入为842亿美元，占总营收的97.9%。上述政策实施后，Facebook的广告收入可能会减少50%以上。

How much impact does the new IDFA rules have on Facebook? According to the financial report data of Facebook, in 2020, the company's revenue was $86 billion, and advertising revenue was $84.2 billion, accounting for 97.9% of the total revenue. After the implementation of the above policy, Facebook may reduce its advertising revenue by more than 50%.

在中国，一位知情人士透露，苹果宣布新规后，中国广告协会开始研究CAID，试图绕过苹果的IDFA，收集用户的薄弱信息功能，从而建立用户肖像，实现精准的广告推送。"CAID早期的宣传是免费的，特别是对一些大公司来说，因此吸引了很多人与之联系。不过，如果实施，可能会对互联网企业实行收费制度"，对此，中国广告协会对中国第一财经表示，"目前，CAID解决方案还没有正式实施。该解决方案不会反对苹果的隐私政策，并正在积极与苹果沟通。"。

In China, a person familiar with the situation disclosed that after Apple announced the new rules, the China Advertising Association began to study CAID, trying to bypass Apple's IDFA and collect users' weak information features, so as to build user portraits and achieve accurate advertising push. "CAID's early publicity is free, especially for some big companies, so it attracts a lot of people to connect with it. However, if it is implemented, it may adopt a charging system for Internet companies." In response, the China Advertising Association told China first finance and economics that "at present, the CAID solution has not been formally implemented. The solution will not oppose Apple's privacy policy and is actively communicating with apple.".

从苹果推迟IDFA新规到2021年初，Facebook等巨头的"僵化"显然起到了一定作用。不过，苹果官方解释称，推迟主要是为了让开发者有更多时间应对IDFA的变化。

From Apple's postponement of IDFA's new rules to early 2021, it is obvious that the "rigidity" of giants such as Facebook has played a role. However, apple officials explained that the delay was mainly to allow developers more time to deal with IDFA changes.

但拖延并不意味着妥协。据英国《金融时报》3月19日报道，苹果已经向IOS上的应用程序开发者和公司发出警告：不要试图绕过即将推出的应用程序跟踪透明隐私功能，否则该应用程序将被下架。

But delay does not mean compromise. According to the financial times on March 19, Apple has issued a warning to app developers and companies on IOS: don't try to bypass the upcoming app tracking transparency privacy function, or the app will be taken off the shelves.

有多少应用程序开发人员试图绕过新的IDFA规则？汇亮科技一位工作人员告诉记者深圳网●"每一次申请的情况都不一样。从目前与我们合作的开发者的角度来看，我们应对苹果新规的主要方式是帮助开发者在苹果政策许可的框架内完成必要的技术更新。我们不想走'捷径'，因为苹果会定期对应用程序进行合规性检查。"。

How many application developers are trying to bypass the new IDFA rules? A staff member of Huiliang technology told shenzhen.com: "the situation of each application is different. From the perspective of the developers we work with at present, the main way for us to deal with Apple's new regulations is to help developers complete the necessary technology updates within the framework of Apple's policy permission. We don't want to take a 'shortcut', because Apple will conduct regular compliance inspection on the application.".

苹果的"战略"？

Apple's "strategy"?

库克公开表示，IDFA的新规定主要是基于保护用户隐私。自2010年以来，苹果一直在塑造其隐私保护者的形象。

Cook said publicly that the new IDFA rules were mainly based on the protection of users' privacy. Since 2010, Apple has been shaping its image as a privacy defender.

在2010年的all things D大会上，苹果的灵魂人物史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）公开表示，"隐私意味着人们知道他们要签什么。我相信人们都很聪明，有些人比其他人想分享更多的数据。问问他们。每次都问他们。让他们告诉你，如果他们厌倦了你的询问，他们就不需要再问他们了。让他们确切地知道你将如何处理他们的数据。

At the all things D conference in 2010, Steve Jobs, the soul of apple, said publicly, "privacy means that people know what they're signing. I believe people are smart, and some want to share more data than others. Ask them. Ask them every time. Let them tell you that if they're tired of your inquiry, they don't need to ask them any more. Let them know exactly what you are going to do with their data.

Facebook和许多应用程序开发商并不为他们的隐私维护者的定位买单，他们认为苹果此举是为了从互联网公司的广告收入中分一杯羹。

Facebook and many app developers don't pay for the positioning of their privacy defenders, believing that Apple's move is to take a share of the advertising revenue of Internet companies.

"苹果利用对应用商店的控制权，以牺牲创造者和小企业为代价，为自己牟利。这是一种反竞争行为，这将迫使公司的商业模式从免费模式转向订阅系统和其他应用内支付，这可以直接让苹果盈利，"Facebook广告和商业产品副总裁丹·程在媒体上公开批评苹果。

"Apple takes advantage of its control over the app store to make profits for itself at the expense of creators and small businesses. This is an anti competitive behavior, which will force the company's business model to shift from free mode to subscription system and other in app payment, which can directly make apple profit," said Dan Cheng, vice president of advertising and commercial products at Facebook Dan levy has publicly criticized apple in the media.

叙事（美国数据流平台）创始人尼克·乔丹（Nick Jordan）也公开表示："苹果只保护了30%的用户隐私，70%的原因是它对苹果自身有利。"。

Nick Jordan, founder of Narrative (a data flow platform in the United States), also said publicly: "apple only protects 30% of users' privacy, and 70% of the reasons are that it is good for Apple itself.".

新的IDFA规则是否对苹果本身更有影响力，我们可以从苹果目前的营收状况中发现。

Whether the new IDFA rules are more powerful for Apple itself, we can find out from Apple's current revenue situation.

图为2012年第一季度至2020年第四季度苹果软硬件收入的变化

The picture shows the change of Apple's hardware and software revenue from 2012q1 to 2020q4

纵观2012年至2020年苹果软硬件收入的变化，我们可以看到，从2019年开始，苹果iPhone、MAC、iPad、可穿戴设备等硬件的销售都在放缓，而服务收入则在逐步增加。为此，苹果已经从硬件制造商转型为数字服务提供商。

Looking at the changes of Apple's hardware and software revenue from 2012 to 2020, we can see that from 2019, the sales of Apple's iPhone, MAC, iPad, wearable devices and other hardware are slowing down, while the service revenue is gradually increasing. To this end, Apple has transformed itself from a hardware manufacturer to a digital service provider.

以2019财年为例。苹果的iPhone业务约占总销售额的54.7%，服务业约占总收入的17.7%，高于马云的9.8%。可穿戴设备、家用电器和配件市场占销售额的9.4%，而iPad占8.1%。从毛利率来看，2019财年苹果服务业务的毛利率为63.7%，而硬件产品的毛利率仅为32.2%。

Take fiscal year 2019 as an example. Apple's iPhone business accounts for about 54.7% of total sales, and its service sector accounts for about 17.7% of revenue, ahead of Ma's 9.8%. The wearable devices, home and accessories market accounted for 9.4% of sales, while the iPad accounted for 8.1%. In terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of Apple's service business in fy2019 was 63.7%, while that of hardware products was only 32.2%.

从增长率和毛利率来看，服务业务对苹果的诱惑显然更大。

From the perspective of growth rate and gross profit rate, it is obvious that the temptation of service business to apple is greater.

"2017年，苹果要求IOS系统应用中的奖励必须使用苹果官方支付渠道，并向苹果支付股票，否则将从应用中删除。Facebook和其他精准广告收入是一座巨大的金矿。苹果大力推动IDFA新规，必然会让应用开发者猜测其真实意图，"业内人士向记者解释深圳网.

"In 2017, Apple has required that rewards in apps on IOS system must use Apple's official payment channel and pay shares to apple, otherwise it will be removed from the app. Facebook and other precision advertising revenue is a big gold mine. Apple's strong push for IDFA new rules will inevitably make app developers speculate about its real intention, "industry insiders explained to shenzhen.com.

不过，一些苹果粉丝愿意相信，苹果力推IDFA新规是为了保护用户隐私。"了解iPhone的人都知道，苹果的别有用心是为了收获用户的认知盲区。在新的IDFA规则之前，用户可以在设置隐私广告中还原广告标识符并重新生成IDFA。"。

However, some Apple fans are willing to believe that Apple's push for IDFA new rules is to protect users' privacy. "Anyone who knows iPhone knows that Apple's ulterior motive is to reap users' cognitive blind area. Before the new IDFA rules, users can restore the advertisement identifier in settings privacy advertising and regenerate an IDFA.".

不管苹果的真正意图是什么，开发者适应新规则的时间已经所剩无几。尽管官方没有关于IOS 14.5官方版本发布时间的通知，但苹果已经向部分开发者开放了IOS 14.5测试版进行测试。

No matter what Apple's real intention is, there is not much time left for developers to adapt to the new rules. Although there is no official notice about the launch time of the official version of IOS 14.5, Apple has opened the beta version of IOS 14.5 to some developers for testing.

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update time：2021-04-01 10:48:31