Fall, eat apple

想象一下苹果吸收黄金的能力有多糟糕。

Imagine how terrible Apple's ability to absorb gold is.

苹果同比表现（2012-2021）

Year on year performance of apple (2012-2021)

更引人注目的是增长率。从上图可以看出，自2012年以来，苹果的增长明显放缓。虽然近年来恢复了增长势头，但仍只有10%-20%左右的同比增长。然而，今年苹果的收入增长了53.7%，营业利润增长了114%。这是苹果自2012年以来的最大增幅。

What's more striking is the growth rate. As can be seen from the above figure, Apple's growth has slowed down significantly since 2012. Although it has regained its growth momentum in recent years, it is still only a year-on-year growth of about 10-20%. However, this year, Apple's revenue increased by 53.7% and its operating profit increased by 114%. The increase is Apple's biggest since 2012.

为什么苹果本季度实现了如此惊人的反弹？正如我们前面提到的，从去年1月到3月，世界各地都有疫情爆发，所以苹果在去年同期的表现不是很好。尤其是iPhone的业绩同比下滑，迫使它们在2月份发布盈利预警。但本季度，全球疫情开始缓解，消费市场略有好转，导致业绩大幅增长。

Why did Apple achieve such an amazing rebound this quarter? As we mentioned earlier, there were outbreaks around the world from January to March last year, so Apple's performance in the same period last year was not very good. In particular, the performance of iPhone declined year on year, forcing them to issue a profit warning in February. But this quarter, the global epidemic began to ease, the consumer market improved slightly, resulting in a substantial growth in performance.

此外，还有两个原因：苹果业务的爆炸式增长和大中华区的快速增长。

In addition, there are two reasons: the explosion of Apple's businesses and the rapid growth of Greater China.

业务爆炸

Business explosion

首先，让我们看看苹果公司业务的表现。

First, let's look at the performance of Apple's businesses.

iPhone历年（2012-2021年）销量及平均售价，请注意2019年后数据均基于IDC报告。

The sales volume and average selling price of iPhone over the years (2012-2021), please note that the data after 2019 are based on the IDC report.

苹果发布季度财报后不久，多家研究机构也发布了本季度智能手机销售数据。IDC预计iPhone销量约为5520万部，同比增长50.4%；而Canalys则预计5240万套的增长率相对较低，同比增长41%。基于IDC的乐观数据，Odin计算出iPhone的平均价格；尽管IDC的基数很高，但本季度iPhone的平均价格却高达868.44美元，创下iPhone上市以来的新高（上图蓝线）。

Shortly after Apple released its quarterly financial report, a number of research institutions also released their smartphone sales data for the quarter. IDC expects iPhone sales to be about 55.2 million, up 50.4% year on year; Canalys, on the other hand, expects a relatively low growth rate of 52.4 million units, up 41% year-on-year. Based on the optimistic IDC data, Odin calculates the average price of the iPhone; Despite IDC's high base, the average price of the iPhone this quarter was as high as $868.44, a record high since the launch of the iPhone (blue line above).

库克在财报会上提到，本季度最畅销的iPhone仍然是中档iphone12。不过，他表示，高端Pro系列的需求依然旺盛。从以上iPhone价格数据来看，Pro的需求量确实惊人。苹果本季度的毛利率大幅上升，这似乎与高端手机卖得太好有很大关系。

Cook mentioned in the financial report meeting that the best selling iPhone in this quarter is still the mid-range iPhone 12. However, he said that the demand for high-end Pro Series is still strong. According to the above iPhone price data, the demand for Pro is really amazing. Apple's gross profit margin rose sharply this quarter, which seems to have a lot to do with the high-end mobile phones selling too well.

IPhone、iPad和Mac的同比表现，请注意这里只列出了第二季度的表现。

IPhone, iPad and Mac's year-on-year performance, please note that only the second quarter performance is listed here.

然而，尽管iPhone销量巨大，但iPhone的收入仍仅占苹果总收入的53.5%。过去的"iPhone依赖"并没有再次出现。最大的原因是MAC和iPad的销量也猛增（见上图）。

However, despite the big sales of iPhone, the revenue of iPhone still accounts for only 53.5% of Apple's total revenue. The past "iPhone dependence" has not recurred. The biggest reason is that the sales of MAC and iPad also burst out (above).

至于近年来引起华尔街关注的两大成长型业务：服务业和可穿戴业，则没有那么光明。服务业很好。今年的收入接近170亿美元。它的吸金能力不仅能与十年前的iPhone相比，还能保持15%~20%的季度环比增长率。

As for the two growth businesses that have attracted the attention of Wall Street in recent years: service and wearable, they are not so bright. The service sector is good. This year's revenue is close to 17 billion US dollars. Its gold absorbing capacity can not only compare with that of the iPhone ten years ago, but also maintain a quarter on quarter growth rate of 15% ~ 20%.

可穿戴日历同比表现（2016-2021年），请注意2017-2019年数据记录为"其他产品"。

Wearable calendar year-on-year performance (2016-2021), please note that the data in 2017-2019 is recorded as "other products".

问题在于可穿戴业务。苹果在2016年推出了airpods，它立即成为苹果业绩增长的另一个重要引擎。然而，进入2021年以来，苹果的可穿戴业务明显放缓；尽管本季度的可穿戴业务收入仍高达78.36亿美元，但增长率已从最初几年的两位数下降到单位数字。

The problem is the wearable business. Apple launched airpods in 2016, which immediately became another important engine for Apple's performance growth. However, since entering 2021, Apple's wearable business has slowed down significantly; Although the wearable business revenue in this quarter is still as high as US $7836 million, the growth has dropped from the double-digit figure in the early years to the unit figure.

中国及海外市场

China and overseas market

苹果本季度快速增长的另一个关键因素是大中华区。

Another key to Apple's rapid growth this quarter is greater China.

苹果在不同地区多年的表现（2012-2021），请注意这里只列出了第二季度的表现。

Apple's performance in different regions over the years (2012-2021), please note that only the performance of the second quarter is listed here.

从上图可以看出，苹果本季度在全球遍地开花，全球爆发式增长。亚太地区增幅最大，为94.2%，北美增幅最小，为34.7%。

As can be seen from the above figure, apple blossomed all over the world in this quarter, with explosive growth all over the world. The Asia Pacific region, with the largest increase, recorded an increase of 94.2%, while North America, with the smallest increase, also recorded an increase of 34.7%.

毫无疑问，苹果在世界各地的盛开固然与疫情的减缓有关，但在大中华区更值得关注。

Undoubtedly, apple blossoming all over the world is certainly related to the slowing down of the epidemic, but it is more noteworthy in Greater China.

虽然亚太地区的增长也很快，但与大中华地区相比，增长太小；尽管苹果在大中华区的营收仍低于北美和欧洲等发达国家。毕竟，奥丁还提到，苹果近年来扭转了在大中华区的劣势，并从上个季度开始恢复增长。你还记得奥丁上个季度说过，苹果2021年第一季度的业绩超过华尔街的预期近80亿元，这80亿元来自大中华区的业绩，大中华区的业绩由下滑转为增长。

Although the growth of the Asia Pacific region is also rapid, it is too small to compare with that of Greater China; Although Apple's revenue in Greater China is still smaller than that in developed countries such as North America and Europe. After all, Odin has also mentioned that Apple has reversed its disadvantage in Greater China in recent years and resumed growth since last season. You can still remember Odin said last quarter that Apple's performance in the first quarter of 2021 exceeded Wall Street's expectation by nearly 8 billion yuan, and the 8 billion yuan came from the performance of Greater China, which turned from decline to growth.

苹果在不同地区多年的表现（2012-2021），请注意这里只列出了第二季度的表现。

Apple's performance in different regions over the years (2012-2021), please note that only the performance of the second quarter is listed here.

苹果本季度进一步扭转了大中华区的下滑势头，从去年的-7.5%同比飙升至今年的87.5%，为苹果凭空增加了82.73亿美元的收入。苹果本季度总收入为895.84亿美元，增长312.71亿美元。本季度，大中华区营收仅占苹果营收的不到1/5，但营收增速占苹果本季度营收增速的1/4以上。

Apple further reversed the decline in Greater China this quarter, surging from - 7.5% year-on-year last year to 87.5% this year, adding $8.273 billion in revenue for apple out of thin air. Apple's total revenue this quarter was $89.584 billion, up $31.271 billion. In this quarter, the revenue of Greater China only accounted for less than 1 / 5 of Apple's revenue, but the revenue growth rate accounted for more than 1 / 4 of Apple's revenue growth in this quarter.

大中华区的快速增长，不仅源于去年中国爆发的疫情，导致苹果去年在大中华区的业绩低迷，也源于华为。上个季度，我们提到华为的销售额在9月份的限购之后急剧下降，华为和苹果的销售额都下降了。

The rapid growth in Greater China is not only due to the outbreak of the epidemic in China last year, which led to the sluggish performance of apple in Greater China last year, but also due to Huawei. Last quarter, we mentioned that Huawei's sales fell sharply after September's restriction, fell down on Huawei and fed apple.

这一季也一样，但更特别。

It's the same in this quarter, but it's more special.

最后，现金流值得一提。

Finally, cash flow is worth mentioning.

小米早前高调宣布了造车计划，但却拿出大量现金造车，最终现金流约1130亿元。

Xiaomi, who announced high-profile plans to build cars earlier, but showed a lot of cash to build cars, had a final cash flow of about 113 billion yuan.

苹果在每个日历年末的现金流（2012-2021）

Apple's cash flow at the end of each calendar year (2012-2021)

库克在财报中表示，苹果本季度现金流"只有"830亿美元（约5380亿元人民币），同比下降约11%（上图）；与此同时，苹果宣布将启动900亿美元的股票回购计划。但另一方面，苹果在房地产、厂房和设备方面的投资同比增长了5%，但增长并不明显（见下图）。

Cook said in the financial report that Apple had "only" US $83 billion (about 538 billion yuan) of cash flow in this quarter, down about 11% year on year (the above figure); Meanwhile, Apple announced it would launch a $90 billion Share Buyback program. But on the other hand, Apple's investment in property, plant and equipment increased by 5% year-on-year, but the growth is not obvious (see figure below).

苹果公司多年来在房地产、厂房和设备方面的投资（2012-2021）

Apple's investment in property, plant and equipment over the years (2012-2021)

苹果显然有钱造车，但这些钱是用来买回的，没有烧钱的迹象。他们真的想造汽车吗？这仍然是个谜。

Apple obviously has money to build cars, but the money is used to buy back, and there is no sign of burning money. Do they really want to build cars? It's still a mystery.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210429/20210429A0FMHV00.html

update time：2021-04-30 18:32:09