India's epidemic is out of control, Premier aunt modi died of infection! Should mutated virus carry this pot?
这意味着感染的增加。在检测人数不增加的前提下，很多感染者根本没有被诊断的机会，目前曝光的数据只是冰山一角。
This means an increase in infection. Under the premise of no increase in the number of people tested, many infected people have no chance to be diagnosed at all, and the data exposed at present is only the tip of the iceberg.
毫不夸张地说，印度是病毒的天堂。印度是怎么走到这一步的？
It's no exaggeration to say that India is a paradise for viruses. How did India get to this point?
我们邀请人民日报印度分社记者胡波峰和健康科学专业的姜永元为我们分析。
We invite Hu Bofeng, a reporter from the Indian branch of people's daily, and Jiang Yongyuan, a health science major, to analyze it for us.
（来源：德语）
(source: gulte)
新奇的冠状病毒肺炎，印度总理莫迪，已经80岁了。
Novel coronavirus pneumonia, India's prime minister Modi, is 80 years old.
由于疫苗接种率低，聚集活动规模大，无论病毒是否发生变异，感染人数必然上升。
With low vaccination rate and large-scale gathering activities, no matter whether the virus mutates or not, the number of infected people is bound to rise.
人与人之间的距离如此之近，病毒不再具有传染性。
People are so close to each other that it is no longer necessary for the virus to be infectious.
印度人也相信牛尿可以预防和治疗新冠。除了给健康人喝牛尿外，他们不会放过戴着新皇冠的插管病人。
Indians also believe that cow urine can prevent and treat new crowns. In addition to drinking cow urine for healthy people, they will not let go of intubated patients with new crowns.
之所以称之为"双突变"，是因为它有两个集中突变：l452r和e484q。
The reason why it is called "double mutation" is that it has two focused mutations: l452r and e484q.
L452r突变具有一定的免疫逃逸能力，可以避免人类抗体的追逐。但这种能力还比较弱，人感染后产生的抗体是可以防御的[5,6]。
L452r mutation has a certain immune escape ability, which can avoid the pursuit of human antibodies. But this ability is still relatively weak, and the antibody produced after human infection can be defended [5,6].
总的来说，b.1.617的传染性和免疫逃逸能力并没有明显提高，仍在现有疫苗的范围内。
In general, the infectivity and immune escape ability of b.1.617 have not increased much, and it is still within the scope of current vaccines.
这表明我们不必夸大病毒突变的消息。
This suggests that we need not exaggerate the news of virus mutation.
（印度一家新皇冠病人医院。作者
(a hospital in India for new crown patients. The author
华盛顿大学卫生计量与评估研究所（IHME）的研究表明，印度每4个人中就有1人可能感染新的冠状病毒。
The University of Washington Institute of health metrics and assessment (IHME) research shows that 1 out of every 4 people in India may be infected with New Coronavirus.
新型冠状病毒肺炎已成为印度第五大死因。
Novel coronavirus pneumonia has become the fifth leading cause of death in India.
在5月16日的高峰期，新型冠状病毒性肺炎可能导致印度每天超过1.3万人死亡。
Novel coronavirus pneumonia may kill more than 13 thousand people every day in India at the peak of May 16th.
摘要
Summary
我们希望印度能够尽快渡过难关，中国也应该做好准备：
We hope that India can make it through as soon as possible, and China should also be prepared:
如果你能接种疫苗，尽快预约。
If you can get the vaccine, make an appointment as soon as possible.
2保护意识不能放松，尤其是五一期间。无论走到哪里，都要戴口罩，勤洗手，尽量不要聚众活动。
2. The awareness of protection should not be relaxed, especially during the May Day holiday. No matter where you go, you should wear masks, wash hands frequently, and try not to gather people for activities.
特别作者：
Special author:
胡伯峰人民日报印度分社
Hu Bofeng people's daily India branch
老师a元
Teacher a yuan
审稿人：中国疾控中心病毒性疾病预防控制研究所助理研究员、免疫学博士卢学新
Reviewer: Lu Xuexin, assistant researcher and doctor of immunology, Institute of viral disease prevention and control, CDC
参考
reference
[1]https://www.onmanorama.com/news/india/2021/04/24/covid-19-india-tally-deaths.html.
[1] https://www.onmanorama.com/news/india/2021/04/24/covid-19-india-tally-deaths.html.
[2]https://lopezdoriga.com/internacional/dron-imagenes-crematorios-india-coronavirus/.
[2] https://lopezdoriga.com/internacional/dron-imagenes-crematorios-india-coronavirus/.
[3]https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/mwpife/bjp_politician_feeding_gaumutra_to_a_covid/.
[3]https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/mwpife/bjp_politician_feeding_gaumutra_to_a_covid/.
[4]https://cov-lineages.org/lineages/lineage_B.1.617.html.
[4] https://cov-lineages.org/lineages/lineage_B.1.617.html.
[5] Deng X，Garcia Knight MA，Khalid MM，等。尖峰L452R SARS-CoV-2变异体的传播、传染性和中和作用。牢房。2021; 内政部：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.04.025.
[5]Deng X, Garcia-Knight MA, Khalid MM, et al. Transmission, infectivity, and neutralization of a spike L452R SARS-CoV-2 variant. cell. 2021; doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.04.025.
[6] 李琦，吴杰，聂杰，等。SARS-CoV-2基因突变对病毒感染性和抗原性的影响。牢房。2020;182（5）：1284-1294.e9。
[6]Li Q, Wu J, Nie J, et al. The Impact of Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 Spike on Viral Infectivity and Antigenicity. Cell. 2020;182(5):1284-1294.e9.
[7] 华盛顿大学健康测量与评估研究所。https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/indias-virus-deaths-will-rise-sharply-till-mid-may-us-study.
[7]INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH METRICS AND EVALUATION AT THE UNIVERSITY 0F WASHINGTON.https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/indias-virus-deaths-will-rise-sharply-till-mid-may-us-study.
Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210430/20210430A01F4L00.html
update time：2021-04-30 18:32:09
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