China's mobile phones "seek survival" in India, but will Indians still retaliate?

由于签证问题，王伟（化名）一直留在中国。他应该在印度北部的一个城市。现在，他在远程办公，工资下降了50%。

Due to the visa issue, Wang Wei (pseudonym) has been staying in China. He should have been in a city in northern India. Now, he's telecommuting, and his salary is down 50%.

这不是最糟的。他的公司是印度市场三大中国手机品牌之一。由于中印航班中断，王伟的许多同事仍滞留在印度。

This is not the worst. His company is one of the top three Chinese mobile phone brands in the Indian market. Due to the interruption of flights between China and India, many of Wang Wei's colleagues are still stranded in India.

自4月中旬以来，第二波COVID-19在印度仍然严峻。过去一个月，政府确认的确诊病例约为20万例，死亡总人数已超过29万。人们普遍认为，印度的实际疫情可能更为严重。在最严重的时候，印度的下层民众负担不起火葬的费用，所以他们不得不把尸体放回恒河。

Since mid April, the second wave of COVID-19 in India is still grim. Over the past month, the number of confirmed cases confirmed by the government has been about 200000, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 290 thousand. It is widely believed that the actual epidemic situation in India may be more serious. At the most serious time, the lower class people in India could not afford the cost of cremation, so they had to release the dead bodies to the Ganges River.

王伟所在的公司是国家级代理公司，不包括导购，员工近300人。

Wang Wei's company is a state-level agency company, excluding shopping guide, with nearly 300 employees.

4月10日左右，我的一些同事检测呈阳性，然后办公室就被封锁了。到5月中旬，已有30多人感染。然而，在印度，没有明显症状的人不做核酸检测。

Around April 10, some of my colleagues tested positive, and then the office was blocked. By the middle of May, more than 30 people were infected. In India, however, people who don't have obvious symptoms don't do nucleic acid tests.

进入4月份后，印度第二波疫情大规模爆发，特别是对孟买和德里的封锁，导致手机销量大幅下滑，"之前销量甚至可能达不到10%"。王伟说。

After entering April, India's second wave of epidemic broke out on a large scale, especially the blockade of Bombay and Delhi, resulting in a significant decline in mobile phone sales, "sales may not even reach 10% before.". Wang Wei said.

在手机行业，从生产到销售，由于第二波疫情，整个产业链承受着巨大的压力。尽管各大手机生产商和工厂仍持乐观态度，但总的声明称，他们仍维持生产。但路透社5月11日报道称，鸿海位于印度南部泰米尔纳德邦（Tamil Nadu）的iPhone组装厂的产量较正常水平下降了50%以上。生产能力下降已成为工厂的普遍情况。在疫情影响下，卢比持续贬值，也给中国企业带来了额外的汇率风险。

In the mobile phone industry, from production to sales, due to the second wave of epidemic, the whole industry chain is under great pressure. Although the major mobile phone manufacturers and factories remain optimistic, the general statement said they still maintain production. But Reuters reported on May 11 that production at Hon Hai's iPhone assembly plant in Tamil Nadu, southern India, has dropped by more than 50% from normal. The decline of production capacity has become a common situation in factories. Under the impact of the epidemic, the rupee continued to depreciate, which also brought additional exchange rate risk to Chinese enterprises.

在印度市场，中国手机制造商长期占据榜首。2016年和2017年，各大厂商都在这里投入了大量资金，许多中国代理商就此告别。从2019年起，中国品牌，尤其是oppo和维梧，将开始收回成本。遗憾的是，疫情的影响、中印关系的持续震荡、产能不足等都让品牌在华焦虑不安。到2021年，生存将比以往任何时候都困难。

In the Indian market, Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have dominated the list for a long time. In 2016 and 2017, all major manufacturers invested a lot of money here, and many Chinese agents bid farewell to it. From 2019, Chinese brands, especially oppo and vivo, will start to recover costs. Unfortunately, the impact of the epidemic, the continuous shock of Sino Indian relations, the lack of production capacity and so on all make brands in China anxious. And in 2021, survival will be harder than ever.

印度人还会有报复性消费吗？

Will Indians still have retaliatory consumption?

到2020年，在一家大型手机厂工作的王伟终于可以实现留在国外的梦想。按照计划，他的第一个海外目的地是印度，但由于签证问题，他只能在网上与同事沟通。

By 2020, Wang Wei, who works for a large mobile phone factory, can finally realize his dream of staying abroad. According to the plan, his first overseas destination is India, but due to the visa problem, he can only communicate with colleagues online.

去年同期，印度经历了第一波COVID-19，但这次情况明显不同。王伟的公司制定了最糟糕的计划。"去年，我们可以看到对印度的攻击并不是太大，今年也不是，"今年的情况非常严重，印度人不像去年那么乐观。消费趋势短期内出现下降的可能性很大。"

In the same period last year, India experienced the first wave of COVID-19, but this time, the situation is obviously different. Wang Wei's company has made the worst plan. "Last year, we could see that the attack on India wasn't too big, and this year it is not." This year, the case is so serious that Indians are not as optimistic as last year. There is a great probability that there will be a short-term decline in consumption trend. "

他工作的手机品牌已经成为印度市场的主流品牌。然而，在4月份印度爆发第二波疫情，特别是封锁孟买和德里后，王伟发现智能手机销量大幅下滑，"之前销量可能还不到10%"。

The mobile phone brand he works for has already become the mainstream brand in the Indian market. However, after the outbreak of the second wave of epidemic in India in April, especially the blockade of Bombay and Delhi, Wang Wei found that the sales volume of smart phones has declined significantly, and "the sales volume may be less than 10% before.".

几乎在2020年的同时，印度也面临着疫情的威胁，甚至手机出货量也被削减。2020年7月20日，canalys发布了2020年第二季度印度智能手机市场数据，数据显示，印度第二季度智能手机出货量下降48%，至1730万台。

Almost at the same time in 2020, India is also facing the threat of epidemic situation, and even the mobile phone shipment has been cut. On July 20, 2020, canalys released the data of Indian smartphone market in the second quarter of 2020, which showed that India's smartphone shipment in the second quarter dropped 48% to 17.3 million units.

卡纳利斯指出，这是因为印度迄今未知的经济封锁是由于5月中旬的COVID-19造成的。智能手机制造商正面临着极其困难的局面。一方面，生产完全停止，造成供应不足。另一方面，禁止线上和线下零售商销售智能手机，导致需求减少。

Canalys points out that this is because India's hitherto unknown economic blockade is due to COVID-19 in mid May. Smartphone manufacturers are facing an extremely difficult situation. On the one hand, the production has stopped completely, resulting in insufficient supply. On the other hand, online and offline retailers are prohibited from selling smartphones, resulting in reduced demand.

在印度大诺伊达地区，黄铁军（化名）的工厂有1000多名员工，其中20多名是中国人。从去年开始，他的公司要求员工只能在宿舍和工厂之间进出。在印度，这已经是一项非常严格的措施。目前滞留印度的手机制造商孟如（化名）也注意到，中国工厂的防疫措施普遍比印度工厂严格。

In India's greater Noida region, Huang Tiejun (not his real name) has more than 1000 employees in his factory, among whom more than 20 are Chinese. Since last year, his company has required that personnel can only enter and leave between dormitories and factories. In India, this is already a very strict measure. Meng Ru (a pseudonym), a mobile phone manufacturer currently stranded in India, also noticed that the epidemic prevention measures of Chinese factories are generally stricter than those of Indian factories.

仅在这一区域，我们聚集了英通通讯、合力泰、长盈精密、宇通科技、新旺达、文泰科技、华勤、卓艺科技、广弘科技等智能手机产业链企业。随着小米、oppo、维梧、川音等中国手机品牌不断占领印度市场，印度智能手机产业链各个环节聚集了大量工厂，生产相机模块、线材、指纹模块、显示模块、手机OEM等。

Only in this region, we have gathered Yingtong communication, helitai, Changying precision, Yutong technology, Xinwangda, Wentai technology, Huaqin, Zhuoyi technology, Guanghong technology and other smart phone industry chain enterprises. As Chinese mobile phone brands such as Xiaomi, oppo, vivo, and Chuanyin have been conquering the Indian market, a large number of factories have gathered in all links of the Indian smartphone industry chain, producing camera modules, wire rods, fingerprint modules, display modules, mobile phone OEM, etc.

在印度爆发第二波疫情后，许多在印度设厂的企业都表示，目前在印度仍在正常经营。但据路透社5月11日报道，鸿海位于印度南部泰米尔纳德邦（Tamil Nadu）的iPhone组装厂有100多名员工被确诊，受此影响，工厂生产受到很大影响。目前，这家工厂的产量比平时下降了50%以上。为此，工厂实施了"禁入令"。目前，只允许厂内人员离开，不允许任何人从外面进入。

After the outbreak of the second wave of epidemic in India, many enterprises that set up factories in India have said that they are still operating normally in India. But more than 100 employees at Hon Hai's iPhone assembly plant in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu have been diagnosed, Reuters reported on May 11. Affected by this, the production of the factory has been greatly affected. At present, the output of the factory has dropped by more than 50% compared with the usual. To this end, the factory has implemented a "no entry order". At present, only the personnel in the factory are allowed to leave, but no one is allowed to enter from the outside.

产能下降已成为普遍现象。根据孟如的观察，"印度政府对工厂的限制不是完全关闭，而是要求50%的产能。比如，过去允许100人工作，现在只允许50人，但没有人仔细检查工厂的实际情况。一些工厂受到流行病的严重影响。100名受检者中，可能有20人被感染，回家休息，其余的人去上班。"

Capacity decline has become a common phenomenon. According to Meng Ru's observation, "the Indian government's restriction on factories is not to completely close down, but to require 50% of the production capacity. For example, in the past, 100 people were allowed to work, but now only 50 people were allowed, but no one carefully checked the actual situation of the factories. Some factories were seriously affected by the epidemic. Maybe 20 of the 100 people tested were infected and went home to rest, The rest go to work. "

对于这种电子工厂来说，人员的减少会带来产能的下降"劳动密集型企业需要大量的人力。受疫情影响，他们只能降低生产能力。"

For this kind of electronic factory, the reduction of personnel will bring about the decline of production capacity" Labor intensive enterprises need a lot of manpower. Affected by the epidemic, they can only reduce production capacity. "

虽然黄铁军从去年开始就一直在工厂里保持严格的防疫措施，但产能下降也是黄铁军面临的一个问题。第二波疫情影响明显。"我们员工的出勤率比去年略低，可能在70%以上。其中四分之一的人应该以各种理由请假。主要影响客户，销量会下降。据估计，30%的降幅肯定会出现。"

Although Huang Tiejun has always maintained strict epidemic prevention measures in the factory since last year, the decline of production capacity is also a problem Huang Tiejun is facing. The impact of the second wave of epidemic is obvious. "The attendance rate of our employees is a little lower than that of last year, which may be more than 70%. One quarter of them should ask for leave for various reasons. The main impact is on the client, and the sales volume will decline. It is estimated that 30% of the decline will definitely happen. "

黄铁军对疫情的到来也感到震惊。"今年2月和3月，卫生部长和印度政府宣布他们已经战胜了这一流行病。我们乐观地认为，今年我们可以大干一场。"

Huang Tiejun was also shocked by the arrival of the epidemic. "In February and March this year, the Minister of health and the Indian government announced that they had overcome the epidemic. We are optimistic that we can have a big fight this year."

据智翔网报道，realme品牌已经停止在印度的发展。

According to zhixiang.com, realme brand has stopped developing in India.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210531/20210531A0EMVY00.html

update time：2021-06-01 09:47:36