Europe's sales plummeted 95% and China's 67%. Can Tesla survive?

处于舆论漩涡中的特斯拉至今仍未恢复元气。它4月份的市场表现给它带来了沉重打击。

Tesla, which is in the vortex of public opinion, has not recovered yet. Its market performance in April hit it hard.

5月28日，根据EV sales发布的4月份欧洲新能源汽车销量排名，今年4月份特斯拉Model 3在欧洲市场的销量仅为1244辆，较3月份的28184辆下降了95%。

On May 28, according to the sales ranking of new energy vehicles in Europe in April released by EV sales, the sales volume of Tesla Model 3 in European market in April this year was only 1244, down 95% compared with 28184 in March.

图片来源：未来汽车报

Source: future auto daily

在特斯拉一路火爆的中国市场，销量也戛然而止，把特斯拉从神坛上拉了下来。该协会的数据显示，特斯拉4月份的销量为25845辆，比3月份下降了27%。其中，出口新车14174辆，这意味着在华交付的汽车只有11671辆，与3月份的35478辆相比大幅下降了67.10%，这是特斯拉国产化以来国内销量下降幅度最大的一个月。

In the Chinese market, where Tesla has been booming all the way, the sales have also come to a sudden stop, pulling it down from the altar. Tesla's sales volume in April was 25845 vehicles, down 27% from March, according to the data from the association. Among them, 14174 were new cars for export, which means that only 11671 cars were delivered in China, a sharp drop of 67.10% compared with 35478 cars in March, which is the biggest month of decline in domestic sales since Tesla's localization.

这两个市场同时遇冷，这无疑为特斯拉打破了一盆冷水。当特斯拉的品牌和形象因为质量问题而受到质疑时，特斯拉现在急需自救。

The two markets were cold at the same time, which undoubtedly broke a basin of cold water for Tesla. When its brand and image are in question because of quality problems, Tesla now urgently needs a self rescue.

欧洲市场正在衰退

The European market is declining

在欧洲市场，特斯拉的兴衰几乎是"东两年西两年"。当竞争对手开始迎头赶上时，其份额也迅速下降。

In the European market, the rise and fall of Tesla is almost "two years east and two years West". When its rivals start to catch up, its share also declines rapidly.

2019年，特斯拉当之无愧地成为欧洲市场的领导者，牢牢占据了欧洲电动车市场31%的份额。到2020年，特斯拉在欧洲的市场份额将降至13%，销量将从2019年的10.9万辆降至2020年的9.8万辆，降幅约为10%。

In 2019, Tesla is a well deserved leader in the European market, firmly holding a 31% share of the European electric vehicle market. By 2020, Tesla's market share in Europe will drop to 13%, and its sales volume will drop from 109000 in 2019 to 98000 in 2020, a decrease of about 10%.

如今，特斯拉的畅销车型3直接跌出了4月份欧洲新能源汽车销量前20名。不过，从单一车型来看，3系依然是前4个月累计销量最高的车型，累计销量为3.24万辆，几乎是排名第二的大众id.3的两倍，占据了5%的市场份额。

Today, Tesla's best-selling model 3 fell directly out of the top 20 sales of new energy vehicles in Europe in April. However, from the perspective of single model, model 3 is still the model with the highest cumulative sales volume in the first four months, with a cumulative sales volume of 32400 vehicles, nearly double the number two Volkswagen id.3, occupying 5% of the market share.

过去两年，新兴的欧洲新能源市场给了特斯拉野蛮发展的空间。当时，欧洲市场缺乏与特斯拉竞争的产品。凭借其强大的产品和先发优势，特斯拉几乎立刻攻占了欧洲新能源市场。

In the past two years, the burgeoning European new energy market gave Tesla room to grow savagely. At that time, the European market lacked products to compete with Tesla. With its strong products and first mover advantages, Tesla almost immediately attacked the European new energy market.

当大众、宝马等传统欧洲巨头在新能源轨道上使出浑身解数时，特斯拉的先发优势逐渐被侵蚀，市场格局正在悄然发生新的变化。盛宝银行（Shengbao bank）股票策略主管彼得•甘瑞（Peter garnry）今年1月表示，股东应"警惕"雷诺、大众和现代近几个月的表现优于特斯拉。

When the traditional European giants such as Volkswagen and BMW make every effort on the new energy track, Tesla's first mover advantage is gradually eroded, and new changes are quietly taking place in the market pattern. Shareholders should be "wary" of Renault, Volkswagen and Hyundai outperforming Tesla in recent months, Peter garnry, head of equity strategy at Shengbao bank, said in January.

资料来源：政府官员

Source: public official

特斯拉面临的第一个威胁是本土企业。1月20日，大众汽车首席执行官赫伯特·迪斯（Herbert dis）在微博上发布了自己的第一条微博，称大众汽车在市场份额方面正在赶超特斯拉，并赢得了欧洲消费者的争夺战。

The first threat to Tesla is the local players. On January 20, Volkswagen CEO Herbert dis tweeted his first tweet, saying that Volkswagen is catching up with Tesla in terms of market share and has won the battle for consumers in Europe.

迪士尼乐园的信心早已体现在销售上。2020年9月，大众id.3在欧洲市场推出时，赢得8571辆，在9月份欧洲新能源汽车销量中排名第三。如今，大众id.4和大众id.3分别以7565辆和5941辆的交车成绩在4月份的销量排行榜上排名第一和第二。

Disneyland's confidence has long been reflected in sales. In September 2020, when Volkswagen id.3 was launched in the European market, it won 8571 vehicles, ranking third in the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe in September. Today, VW id.4 and VW id.3 are ranked first and second in April's sales list respectively with the delivery results of 7565 and 5941 vehicles.

与此同时，大众旗下奥迪品牌继续挤压特斯拉在高端豪华新能源汽车领域的市场空间。4月份奥迪e-tron销量环比增长19.45%，以3188辆排名第12位。

At the same time, Volkswagen's Audi brand continues to squeeze Tesla's market space in the field of high-end luxury new energy vehicles. In April, the sales volume of Audi e-tron increased by 19.45% on a month on month basis, ranking 12th with 3188 vehicles.

事实上，在特斯拉在欧洲市场先行者优势下降的背后，其产品质量问题也频频发生。J。根据d.power发布的2021年汽车可靠性研究排名，特斯拉每100辆车有176个故障问题，在总数中排名倒数第四。在美国《消费者报告》给出的2020年调查数据中，特斯拉排名倒数第二。

In fact, behind the decline of Tesla's first mover advantage in the European market, its product quality problems also occur frequently. J. According to the 2021 automotive reliability research ranking released by d.power, Tesla has 176 failure problems per 100 vehicles, ranking fourth from the bottom in total. In the 2020 survey data given by the consumer report of the United States, Tesla is ranked second from the bottom.

5月25日，挪威媒体nettavisen报道称，由于电池问题，挪威一家法院裁定特斯拉在后台使用软件升级来限制特斯拉电动车的充电速度和电池容量，因此被处以罚款，并将赔偿每位特斯拉车主16000美元。受影响的特斯拉在挪威已售出10000辆汽车。

On May 25, the Norwegian media nettavisen reported that because of the battery problem, a Norwegian court ruled that Tesla was fined for using software upgrades in the background to limit the charging speed and battery capacity of Tesla electric vehicles, and would compensate each Tesla owner involved with $16000. The affected Tesla has sold 10000 vehicles in Norway.

此外，特斯拉在欧洲市场薄弱的售后渠道也在说服大量潜在客户。据特斯拉官方网站显示，法国有10家维修中心，英国有13家。德国化工巨头巴斯夫发言人乌苏拉·冯·斯特滕（Ursula von Stetten）曾开玩笑说，由于特斯拉汽车的服务网络极其分散，巴斯夫不会为超过5万名员工购买特斯拉汽车。

In addition, Tesla's weak after-sales channels in the European market are also persuading a large number of potential customers. According to Tesla's official website, there are 10 repair centers in France and 13 in the UK. Ursula von Stetten, a spokesman for BASF, a German chemical giant, once joked that BASF would not buy Tesla cars for more than 50000 employees because of the extremely scattered service network of Tesla cars.

中国市场开始自救

China's market starts to save itself

随着欧洲市场份额的动摇，特斯拉在中国的生活开始艰难起来。

As Europe's market share falters, Tesla's life in China is beginning to be tough.

4月19日，在上海车展上，一位维权人士拉开了质疑特斯拉质量问题的舆论序幕。随后的事故把特斯拉推到了风口浪尖。

On April 19, at the Shanghai auto show, a rights owner opened the public opinion prelude to questioning Tesla's quality problems. The subsequent accidents pushed Tesla to the top of the wave.

根据乘客协会的数据，特斯拉4月份的销量为11954辆，环比下降65.51%。其中，特斯拉主力销售车型model 3 4月份销量为6431辆，环比下降73.75%，首次跌破万辆。

According to the data of the passenger Association, Tesla's sales volume in April was 11954, down 65.51% on a month on month basis. Among them, the sales volume of Tesla's main sales model model 3 in April was 6431 vehicles, down 73.75% on a month on month basis, falling below 10000 vehicles for the first time.

另一方面，新车制造力量也借机追赶和挑战特斯拉的强势地位。4月份，威来汽车交付7102辆；理想的交付量也达到了5539辆；小鹏交付5147辆。维德布什证券（vidbush securities）分析师艾夫斯（Dan ives）表示，特斯拉4月份的销量不如威莱、小鹏和理想等电动车初创企业。

On the other hand, new car building forces are also taking the opportunity to catch up and challenge Tesla's strong position. In April, Weilai delivered 7102 vehicles; The ideal delivery volume also reached 5539 vehicles; Xiaopeng delivered 5147 vehicles. Dan ives, an analyst at vidbush securities, said Tesla's sales in April were not as good as those of electric vehicle start-ups such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal.

来源：特斯拉官方

Source: Tesla official

维德布什证券曾将中国市场称为特斯拉股票的"心脏和肺"。随着中国市场表现不尽如人意，特斯拉的股价也随之下跌。按照特斯拉股价在2020年飙升740%后的计算，到2021年，特斯拉股价将下跌近20%，市值蒸发近2000亿。

Vidbush securities once called the Chinese market the "heart and lung" of Tesla's stock. With the unsatisfactory performance of the Chinese market, Tesla's share price also fell. According to the calculation of Tesla's share price after soaring 740% in 2020, by 2021, Tesla's share price will have dropped nearly 20%, and its market value will have evaporated nearly 200 billion.

在市场和股价一起下跌的压力下，曾经傲慢的特斯拉不得不向中国市场低头。

Under the pressure of the market and share price falling together, Tesla, once arrogant, had to bow to the Chinese market.

至于这场舆论风暴中最核心的数据问题，前不久，特斯拉正式宣布将在中国建立数据中心，中国市场车辆销售产生的所有数据都将存储在中国。同时，特斯拉将向车主开放车辆信息查询平台。

As for the most central data issue in this storm of public opinion, not long ago, Tesla officially announced that it will establish a data center in China, and all data generated by the sales of vehicles in the Chinese market will be stored in China. At the same time, Tesla will open the vehicle information inquiry platform to vehicle owners.

创投证券指出，特斯拉将向车主开放车辆信息查询平台，使数据公开透明，有利于问题的发现和改进，并看好问题解决后特斯拉在中国的销售推广。

Chuancai Securities pointed out that Tesla will open the vehicle information query platform to vehicle owners to make the data open and transparent, which is conducive to the discovery and improvement of problems, and is optimistic about the sales promotion of Tesla in China after the problem is solved.

与此同时，特斯拉近期开始在中国招聘负责大数据平台的开发和运营工程师、负责大数据平台的高级软件工程师、负责大数据分析的数据科学家和负责数据管理的数据安全专家。他们在特斯拉在上海和北京的办事处工作，也在港口附近的超级工厂工作。

At the same time, Tesla recently began to recruit development and operation engineers in charge of big data platform, senior software engineers in charge of big data platform, data scientists in charge of big data analysis and data security experts in charge of data management in China. They work in Tesla's offices in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as in the super factory near the port.

尽管特斯拉在这场风暴中经历着各种考验，但特斯拉很难摆脱每年占特斯拉全球产能42.86%的上海工厂和想象力巨大的中国市场。不过，从布局来看，麝香除了增加产能外，还打算将鸡蛋放在不同的篮子里，以规避单一市场的依赖风险。

Although Tesla is experiencing various tests in the storm, it is hard for Tesla to escape from the Shanghai factory, which accounts for 42.86% of Tesla's global capacity annually, and the Chinese market, which has huge imagination. However, judging from its layout, in addition to increasing production capacity, musk also intends to put eggs in different baskets to avoid the dependence risk of the single market.

除了在中国市场积极自助外，特斯拉还试图不断开拓新市场。5月21日，马斯克在莫斯科的一个论坛上表示，特斯拉正在考虑在俄罗斯建立工厂。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，他已经准备好进入俄罗斯电动车市场，并将在哈萨克斯坦和其他国家开展业务。

In addition to actively self-help in the Chinese market, Tesla is also trying to constantly open up new markets. On May 21, musk told a forum in Moscow that Tesla was considering building a factory in Russia. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, said he was ready to enter the Russian electric vehicle market and would start business in Kazakhstan and other countries.

早在2019年，马斯克就宣布将在欧洲汽车制造业中心德国柏林建设第四家汽车工厂，目前该工厂仍在建设中。而去年，马斯克还透露了他在印度建厂的计划。特斯拉还提议将其首都班加罗尔作为特斯拉"印度工厂"的潜在地点。

As early as 2019, musk announced that it would build a fourth automobile factory in Berlin, Germany, the center of European automobile manufacturing industry, which is still under construction. And last year, musk also revealed his plan to build a factory in India. Tesla also proposed Bangalore, its capital, as a potential site for Tesla's "Indian factory.".

不过，自救是否有效，5月份的销量将说明一切。

However, whether self-help is effective or not, the sales volume in May will tell everything.

作者：苏鹏

By Su Peng

编辑：王艳

Editor: Wang Yan

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210531/20210531A0DDQ700.html

update time：2021-06-01 09:47:36