How far is Huawei from IOT's big ecological dream?

近日，华为宣布，计划于6月2日正式举行鸿蒙产品发布会，预计此前仅用于智能屏、可穿戴设备等产品的鸿蒙操作系统将在更多产品类别中使用。尽管华为并未明确表示将在手机中使用鸿蒙系统（尽管华为此前已将鸿蒙2.0测试版推向部分机型），华为发布的官方视频以及将emui官方微博更名为harmonyos等措施，仍让业界认为emui将正式登陆华为手机，引起了各类媒体的广泛报道和关注。

Recently, Huawei announced that it plans to officially hold the Hongmeng product launch on June 2. It is expected that the Hongmeng operating system previously used only for smart screens, wearable devices and other products will be used in more product categories. Although Huawei has not made it clear that it will use Hongmeng system in mobile phones (although Huawei has previously pushed Hongmeng 2.0 beta version to some models), the official video released by Huawei and the measures such as renaming emui's official microblog to harmonyos still make the industry think that it will officially land on Huawei's mobile phones, which has aroused extensive reports and attention from all kinds of media.

事实上，自从宏盟在2019年正式发布1.0版，并首次将其搭载在荣耀（华为上市前）智能屏上后，就没有像最近想登录手机那样引起业界的关注。可见，无论是业界还是市场，都把手机能否搭载红魔作为判断其能否成功的重要标准之一。

In fact, since Hongmeng officially released version 1.0 in 2019 and carried it on the glory (before Huawei's sale) smart screen for the first time, it has not attracted the industry's attention as recently as it wants to log on to the mobile phone. It can be seen that both the industry and the market regard whether the mobile phone can carry Hongmeng as one of the important criteria to judge whether it is going to succeed.

所以问题是，华为为什么选择在这个时候正式推出鸿蒙系统？鸿蒙的未来是什么？

So the question is, why did Huawei choose to officially launch the Hongmeng system at this time? What is the future of Hongmeng?

一棵树不能形成一片森林

A single tree cannot make a forest

拥有2亿部手机，短期内很难有合作伙伴

With 200 million mobile phones, it is difficult to have a partner in the short term

看到手机，很多人甚至华为自己都会认为，鸿蒙是物联网的操作系统，手机只是其中的一小部分。而且，鸿蒙并不是谷歌Android和苹果IOS的替代品，而是一款全新的操作系统。这听起来不错，但从华为宣布今年将有3亿台设备配备鸿蒙来看，其中2亿台（占鸿蒙总预装机容量的2/3）是华为手机，谁能否认手机生态对鸿蒙并不重要？

Seeing mobile phones, many people, even Huawei itself, will argue that Hongmeng is the operating system of Internet of things, and mobile phones are only a small part of it. Moreover, Hongmeng is not a replacement of Google Android and apple IOS, but a brand-new operating system. That sounds good, but judging from Huawei's announcement that 300 million devices will be equipped with Hongmeng this year, of which 200 million (accounting for 2 / 3 of Hongmeng's total pre installed capacity) are Huawei mobile phones, who can deny that mobile phone ecology is not important to Hongmeng?

另外，既然配备了手机，自然就要提到手机生态。我们不仅无法避免与googleandroid和appleios的竞争，甚至不得不面对艰难困苦，在质量和数量上取胜。那么现实是什么呢？

In addition, since it is equipped with mobile phones, it is natural to mention the mobile phone ecology. Not only can we not avoid the competition with Google Android and apple IOS, we even have to face the hard and hard, and win in quality and quantity. So what's the reality?

据谷歌2021年I/O开发者大会统计，截至2021年，全球超过83%的智能手机都配备了Android系统。谷歌在本次大会上还宣布，全球活跃的Android设备数量已经超过30亿台。具体来说，谷歌有大约2000万开发者和300万应用程序。

According to Google's 2021 I / O Developers Conference, as of 2021, more than 83% of the world's smart phones are equipped with Android system. Google also announced in this conference that the number of active Android devices in the world has exceeded 3 billion. Specifically, there are about 20 million developers and 3 million applications in Google.

相比之下，从开发端的开发者数量来看，鸿蒙只占Android的9%，IOS的7.5%，这对生态至关重要；从用户应用数量来看，鸿蒙仅为Android的3.3%，IOS的2.2%。

By contrast, Hongmeng is only 9% of Android and 7.5% of IOS in terms of the number of developers at the development end, which is crucial to the ecology; In terms of the number of user applications, Hongmeng is only 3.3% of Android and 2.2% of IOS.

尽管如此，华为消费业务CEO于成东去年在接受媒体采访时表示，鸿蒙的应用体验已经达到Android的70%-80%。我们真的不知道余成东是如何量化这段经历的，或者说量化的标准是什么？

Nevertheless, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business, told the media last year that Hongmeng's application experience has reached 70% - 80% of Android's. We really don't know how Yu Chengdong quantifies this experience, or what is the quantitative standard?

但在我们看来，量变是质变的基础和结果。在应用方面，只有当有大量的应用程序（提交的应用程序）时，评审人员才能有更多的选择来选择优秀的应用程序，用户才能有更多的选择。如果选择很少，质量如何？

But in our view, quantitative change is the basis and result of qualitative change. When it comes to applications, only when there is a large number of applications (submitted applications) can the reviewers have more choices for excellent applications and the users have more choices. If there are very few choices, what is the quality?

这里我们不妨以苹果和谷歌为例。据说，仅去年一年，苹果就拒绝了100万个应用程序（据说苹果的应用程序通过率在60%左右），谷歌拒绝的数量在70万到80万之间，我不知道业界从中看到了什么？

Here we might as well take apple and Google for example. It is said that last year alone, apple rejected 1 million applications (it is said that the pass rate of Apple's applications is about 60%), and the number of rejections by Google ranged from 700000 to 800000. I don't know what the industry saw from it?

我们看到的是，在这些数字的背后，苹果IOS和谷歌安卓生态对开发者的吸引力再次凸显，也就是说，拒绝的数量如此之高。我可以想象每年开发者提交的上述两个生态的申请数量。我们不知道鸿蒙生态批准了多少申请，近10万份申请。如果我们真的注重经验，我们觉得华为宣布应用通过率似乎更有说服力。

What we see is that behind these figures, the attraction of Apple IOS and Google Android ecology for developers is highlighted again, that is, the number of rejections is so high. I can imagine the number of applications submitted by developers for the above two ecology every year. We don't know how many applications Hongmeng ecology has approved for nearly 100000 applications. If we really pay attention to experience, we feel that Huawei's announcement of application passing rate seems more convincing.

在这里，业界会说，作为一种新的操作系统和生态，发展需要时间，而这种比较是不公平的。这种说法看似合理，但经不起推敲。原因很简单。当手机市场已经进入存量用户的竞争时，华为鸿蒙生态要发展，不就意味着华为鸿蒙生态要利用苹果IOS和谷歌Android生态吗？

Here, the industry will say that as a new operating system and ecology, development takes time, and this comparison is not fair. This kind of argument seems reasonable, but it can't stand scrutiny. The reason is very simple. When the mobile phone market has entered the competition of stock users, Huawei Hongmeng ecology wants to develop, doesn't it mean that Huawei Hongmeng ecology wants to take advantage of Apple IOS and Google Android ecology?

业界会说，鸿蒙生态可以开发新用户。好的，宏盟生态发展的另一个方面是宏盟生态如何利用新用户来拓展自己。只有两种方法：一种是自己携带移动终端，另一种是让更多的OEM厂商携带。具体的厂商只有OV和小米这两个中国主流手机厂商，而"独飞"的荣耀来自华为去年。

The industry will say that Hongmeng ecology can develop new users. OK, another aspect of Hongmeng ecological development is how Hongmeng ecological uses new users to expand itself. There are only two ways to do this: one is to carry their own mobile terminals, and the other is to let more OEM manufacturers carry them. The specific manufacturers are only OV and Xiaomi, the mainstream mobile phone manufacturers in China, and the glory of "flying alone" from Huawei last year.

目前，华为自己的手机都配备了宏盟和Ecotech，没有任何问题，比如今年宣布的2亿目标。然而，对其未来生态发展最不利的因素之一是，华为自己的移动终端正在急剧萎缩，何时能够恢复还不确定。别以为这对华为的鸿蒙生态没有影响。试想一下，即使生态像苹果一样强大，如果有一天IOS生态的主要载体iPhone销量突然开始像华为一样下滑，何时止跌还不得而知，苹果的生态会是什么样子？

At present, Huawei's own mobile phones are equipped with Hongmeng and Ecotech without any problems, such as its announced target of 200 million this year. However, one of the most unfavorable factors for its ecological future development is that Huawei's own mobile terminals are shrinking dramatically, and it is uncertain when they will be able to recover. Don't think that this has no impact on Huawei's Hongmeng ecology. Just imagine, even if the ecology is as strong as apple, if one day iPhone sales, the main carrier of IOS ecology, suddenly begin to decline as Huawei's, and when to stop the decline is unknown, what will Apple's ecology be like?

所谓是在皮肤不存在的情况下，头发会怎样附着。这就是用我们自己的终端来促进生态的逻辑。

The so-called is in line with the skin does not exist, how hair will be attached. This is the logic of using our own terminals to promote ecology.

那么就让我们来看看OEM厂商承载鸿蒙和生态推广的道路。我们应该知道每件事都有它的优点和缺点。只有利大于弊，我们才能被选中。

Then let's take a look at the road of OEM manufacturers carrying Hongmeng and ecological promotion. We should know that everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Only when the advantages outweigh the disadvantages can we be chosen.

众所周知，OV、小米等主流手机厂商（也是安卓和生态的主要支撑）由于产品和品牌溢价等诸多原因，其生存和发展依赖于量。目前，从出货量来看，海外市场对这些厂商来说是不可或缺的。例如，小米手机在海外市场的出货量甚至超过了中国市场。不过，短期来看，华为鸿蒙及其生态在海外市场很难与Android及其生态抗衡。因此，为了销量，中国主流手机厂商主动采用宏盟及其生态的可能性非常小。

As we all know, OV, Xiaomi and other mainstream mobile phone manufacturers (also the main support of Android and Ecology) rely on volume for their survival and development due to many reasons such as product and brand premium. At present, overseas markets outside China are indispensable for these manufacturers in terms of shipment volume. For example, the shipment volume of Xiaomi mobile phone in overseas markets even exceeds that in China. However, in the short term, Huawei Hongmeng and its ecology can hardly compete with Android and its ecology in overseas markets. Therefore, for the sake of volume, it is very unlikely that Chinese mainstream mobile phone manufacturers will take the initiative to adopt Hongmeng and its ecology.

二是利益角度。虽然中国手机厂商以性价比（低毛利率）抢占市场，但仍不乏盈利渠道。中国最典型的例子是，手机制造商通过自己的应用商店发布应用程序和内容。据说与开发者的份额高达50%（高于谷歌和苹果的三七开）。

The second is the angle of profit. Although Chinese mobile phone manufacturers seize the market with cost performance (low gross margin), there is still no lack of profit channels. The most typical example in China is that mobile phone manufacturers distribute their applications and content through their own app stores. It is said that the share with developers is as high as 50% (higher than Google and Apple's sanqikai).

严重碎片化

Serious fragmentation

宏盟还缺乏统一物联网生态的多重支撑力量

Hongmeng still lacks multiple supporting forces to unify IOT ecology

提到鸿蒙的物联网，我们不得不提到华为消费业务手机产品线总裁何刚在2019年华为世界移动通信大会上宣布的5g时代的"1+8+n"战略。

Referring to Hongmeng's Internet of things, we have to mention Huawei's "1 + 8 + n" strategy in the 5g era announced by He Gang, President of Huawei's mobile phone product line of consumer business, at Huawei's world mobile communication conference in 2019.

我们认为，所谓鸿蒙及其生态应该是实施上述战略的重要举措。至于上述战略的组成部分，华为做了一个生动的比喻，那就是华为的智能"太阳能系统"在整个场景中。也就是说，一个太阳，八颗行星和N颗卫星。有点天文学和生活常识的人都知道太阳是这里最重要的存在。更不用说没有太阳，即使太阳行为异常，也会影响整个星球和卫星的正常运转。这个太阳就是华为的手机业务。

In our view, the so-called Hongmeng and its ecology should be an important measure for the implementation of the above strategy. As for the components of the above-mentioned strategy, Huawei has made a vivid analogy, that is, Huawei's intelligent "solar system" in the whole scene. That is, one sun, eight planets and N satellites. People with a little astronomy and common sense of life all know that the sun is the most important existence here. Let alone without the sun, even if it behaves abnormally, it will affect the normal operation of the whole planet and satellite. This sun is Huawei's mobile phone business.

可见，无论是现在还是将来，手机仍然是华为宏梦的生态梦想的基础。尤其是现在，维护华为的手机所有权和用户，将是鸿蒙未来生态梦想的"火种"。这从之前公布的3亿台鸿蒙设备就可以看出，其中三分之二是华为自己的移动终端。

It can be seen that both now and in the future, mobile phones are still the foundation of Huawei Hongmeng's ecological dream. Especially now, maintaining Huawei's mobile phone ownership and users will be the "kindling" of Hongmeng's ecological dream in the future. This can be seen from the 300 million Hongmeng devices announced previously, of which two-thirds are Huawei's own mobile terminals.

华为用宏盟生态系统留住手机用户的意图显而易见，这意味着宏盟将面临最大的考验，即除了给相关用户带来所谓的全场景体验外，更重要的是其在手机生态系统中的差异化体验。然而，在我们看来，华为面临的挑战并不小。

Huawei's intention to retain mobile phone users with Hongmeng ecosystem is obvious, which means that Hongmeng will face the biggest test, that is, in addition to bringing the so-called full scene experience to relevant users, the more important thing is its differentiated experience in the mobile phone ecosystem. However, in our view, the challenge Huawei faces is not small.

首先，从手机市场来看，除了IOS之外，Android阵营的手机体验（包括差异化）基本上是由硬件创新（包括升级和更新）驱动的。就连华为也一直在努力。

First of all, from the perspective of the mobile phone market, in addition to IOS, the Android camp's mobile phone experience (including differentiation) is basically driven by hardware innovation (including upgrade and update). Even Huawei has been.

其次，在品牌方面，华为与国内主流手机品牌在手机库存、新增用户等相关指标上没有明显差距。

Secondly, in terms of brand, there is no obvious gap between Huawei and domestic mainstream mobile phone brands in terms of some indicators related to mobile phone stock and new users.

比如，今年5月，中国移动终端实验室发布了第二期《2020年5g终端消费趋势报告》，报告显示，从最后一款手机到这款手机的品牌变化来看，即所谓的"换代忠诚度"指数，华为仅为35.7%，远低于苹果的76.3%，甚至比小米还低。

For example, in May this year, China mobile terminal laboratory released the second issue of 5g terminal consumption trend report in 2020, which shows that in terms of brand change from the last mobile phone to this one, that is, the so-called "replacement loyalty rate" index, Huawei is only 35.7%, far lower than apple's 76.3%, even lower than OV and Xiaomi.

最后，在上述不利条件下，华为手机缺货，这意味着即使是较早的华为手机用户（如两年前或更早的用户）在更换手机时也不得不流向其他品牌，导致华为手机库存用户流失。

Finally, under the above adverse conditions, Huawei's mobile phones are out of stock, which means that even the earlier Huawei mobile phone users (such as those two years ago or earlier) have to flow to other brands when they have to change their phones, resulting in the loss of Huawei's mobile phone stock users.

那么鸿蒙能否以其全场的生态力解决上述挑战，为其硬件回归赢得更多的时间，直到它实现自己的大生态梦想，这是时候了！

So whether Hongmeng can solve the above challenges with its full scene ecological power, and win more time for its hardware return, until it realizes its big ecological dream, it's up to time!

总结：如何不走一步就达到千里。华为鸿蒙的统一物联网生态当然令人兴奋，但正如我们前面提到的，它自然会面临构成统一生态的小生态系统碎片化的挑战。如何统一这些分属不同行业、不同市场的支离破碎的生态系统，不仅需要在全场景连接下实现信息的自由流动和设备的共享与共享，更需要在不同生态系统中基于鸿蒙的原创应用和服务体验的创造。

Conclusion: how to reach a thousand miles without taking a step. Huawei Hongmeng's unified IOT ecology is certainly exciting, but as we have mentioned before, it will naturally face the challenge of fragmentation of the small ecosystems that make up the unified ecology. How to unify these fragmented ecosystems, which belong to different industries and markets, requires not only the free flow of information and the sharing and sharing of devices under the whole scene connection, but also the creation of original application and service experience based on Hongmeng in different ecosystems.

以大家熟悉的消费物联网为例，针对目前家庭消费物联网设备互联率低的现状，让他们体验所谓的全场是不现实的。其次，它可能不能反映整个场景的优点。

Taking the familiar consumer IOT as an example, in view of the low interconnection rate of household consumer IOT devices at present, it is unrealistic for them to experience the so-called whole scene. Secondly, it may not reflect the advantages of the whole scene.

在这个时候，最好在手机、大屏幕（智能电视）、平板电脑、PC等使用频率高的生态系统中，创造出更多不同于现有生态系统的原创杀手级应用和服务，它能更好地体现红蒙生态的优势，给用户带来未来全场景体验的渴望和信心，它不仅仅是设备与信息流的无缝连接，毕竟无论连接与流量如何，用户的最终体验将由生态系统中的设备控制。

At this time, it's better to create more original killer applications and services that are different from the existing ecosystem in the mobile phone, large screen (smart TV), tablet, PC and other ecosystems with high frequency of use, which can better reflect the advantages of Hongmeng ecology and give users the desire and confidence of full scene experience in the future, It is not only the seamless connection between devices and the flow of information, after all, no matter how the connection and flow, the user's final experience will be controlled by the devices in an ecosystem.

大而全面固然好，但一定要小而精。只有这样，物联网生态的统一才能真正满足市场和用户对整个场景的需求。

It's good to be large and comprehensive, but it must be small and refined. Only in this way can the unification of IOT ecology really meet the needs of the market and users for the whole scene.

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Creative technology, light up life, we are all technology+

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update time：2021-06-01 10:16:34