Huawei's entry brings fierce competition to lidar Market

"这个雷达真的在实时工作。举手，你可以看到屏幕上我们的身影在颤抖

"This radar is really working in real time. Raise your hand, you can see our figure on the screen shaking

大量的人挤在华为激光雷达引进的展台前近距离观看。很难想象他们会看到一个尚未被消费市场验证的汽车部件。

A large number of people crowded in front of the booth where Huawei lidar was introduced to have a close look. It's hard to imagine that they are going to see a car part that has not yet been verified by the consumer market.

有见多识广的人聚集在一起，耳语自动驾驶关键部件使用的技术解决方案；还有一些业余爱好者显然是外行，他们高喊"马斯克并不意味着激光雷达不工作"。

There are knowledgeable people gathered together to whisper about the technical solution for the use of key parts of automatic driving; There are also amateurs who are obviously laymen, shouting "Musk doesn't mean lidar doesn't work.".

华为对展台配置的解释工程师谨慎而无语。只有对领导推荐的客户进行重点介绍，才能表现出一种狼吞虎咽的热情。

Huawei's explanation engineers for the booth configuration are cautious and speechless. Only when they make key introductions for the customers recommended by the leaders can they show a kind of enthusiasm like hungry wolves.

华为，一个中国技术极客，其成功的商业经验从未被复制过，在手机市场被包围之前，它就已经在汽车市场附近爬行；

Huawei, a Chinese technology geek whose successful business experience has never been replicable, has been crawling close to the automobile market before the mobile phone market is surrounded;

当新车造车大军烧进中国汽车市场的后院时，他们却在等待时机而动，让与自动驾驶密切相关的汽车零部件市场受到一条巨大鲶鱼的启发，这条鲶鱼比三年前更为活跃。

When the new car building forces are burning into the backyard of China's auto market, they are waiting for the opportunity to move, so that the auto parts market, which is closely related to automatic driving, is inspired by a huge catfish, which is more lively than three years ago.

然而，它带来的不是手电筒，而是一台令人心寒的空调。一手举着一级旗，与汽车厂交往，一手营造的生态让中小企业不知是"兄弟公司"还是鸿门宴。

However, what it brings is not a torch, but a chilling air-conditioning. Holding the Tier1 flag in one hand, it associates with the car factory, and the ecology built in the other hand makes small and medium-sized companies not know whether it is "brother company" or Hongmen banquet.

无论如何，原本市场的龙头企业都更清楚，汽车激光雷达市场最血腥的发展节点已经到来。

In any case, the leading players in the original market are more aware that the most bloody development node in the car lidar market has arrived.

如果我们把进度条拉回到2017年，"激光雷达"获得第一波广泛关注，它将受益于当时号称的L4自动驾驶商业市场

If we pull the progress bar back to 2017, "lidar" gets the first wave of widespread attention, it will benefit from the commercial market of L4 automatic driving that boasted at that time

当时，人们可以看到百度等L4自动驾驶出租车车头上方旋转的"肯德基家桶"、自动驾驶卡车、自动驾驶清扫车、自动驾驶物流车。。。不管怎样，在各种"无人场景车"上，两边、头上或屁股后面都安装了几个激光雷达，炫耀自己"无人能为"的能力。

At that time, people could see the revolving "KFC family barrel" above the head of L4 self driving taxis such as Baidu, self driving trucks, self driving sweepers, self driving logistics cars... Anyway, on all kinds of "unmanned scene vehicles", several lidars were installed on both sides, on the head or behind the buttocks, To flaunt their "no one can do things" ability.

"Velodyne实际上带头帮忙。北京车展新馆场地有限，审核严格。很多自动驾驶公司甚至没有资格申请"，一位工作人员抱怨说，涂防晒霜时阳光太强，并承认自动驾驶没有得到主流汽车市场的认可，

"Velodyne actually took the lead in helping. The venue of the new pavilion of Beijing auto show is limited and the audit is strict. Many automatic driving companies don't even have the qualification to apply." One staff member complained that the sun was too strong while wearing sunscreen, and admitted that automatic driving was not recognized by the mainstream car market,

"车展当然是汽车企业的天下。我们甚至不能被当作陪衬。就连展览方也不太懂自动驾驶。"

"Auto show is of course the world of auto companies. We can't even be regarded as a foil. Even the exhibition party doesn't know much about automatic driving."

当时，Velodyne很幸运地成为了自动驾驶激光雷达市场的领导者。一些中国公司被分配到老旅馆，很难吸引顾客。

Velodyne was lucky to be the leader of the self driving lidar market at that time. Some Chinese companies have been assigned to old hotels, and they are difficult to attract customers.

一位推销员说，他大部分时间坐在那里无所事事，所以他不得不主动拦截。

"It's a ghost to have clients passing by." A salesman said that he spent most of his time sitting around doing nothing, so he had to take the initiative to intercept.

"我们推固态激光雷达，没人跟我们说话。其实，可以理解的是，除了量产和通过汽车法规外，很多汽车厂商都觉得激光雷达离上车还有太远的距离，说这个事情不对。"当他抱怨的时候，他也有点软弱，因为他承认很多合作还处于"有心无行动"的阶段。

"We push solid-state lidar, and no one talks to us. In fact, it's understandable that in addition to mass production and passing the car regulations, many car manufacturers feel that the lidar is still too far away from getting on the car, saying that this thing is not true. " When he complained, he was also a little weak, because he admitted that many of the cooperation was still in the stage of "intention without action".

这是真的。

This is true.

当时，一位传统车厂的采购经理像开玩笑一样告诉我，他从来没有听说过国产量产车项目要投入激光雷达，"让车厂先把L3的责任分了，谁也不愿意为自动驾驶的事故负责。"。

At that time, a purchasing manager of a traditional car factory told me like a joke that he had never heard of the domestic mass production car project that was going to be launched into lidar, "let the car factory divide the responsibility of L3 first, and no one is willing to take responsibility for the accident of automatic driving.".

同时，博世、安博富、采埃孚等众多一级供应商也不愿谈及如何将激光雷达引入汽车供应链系统，理由是"以上L3解决方案都在开发中，但法律法规问题需要先解决"。

At the same time, many Tier1 suppliers, such as Bosch, anbofu and ZF, do not want to talk about how to bring lidar into the automotive supply chain system on the ground that "all the above L3 solutions are under development, but the problems of laws and regulations need to be solved first".

但仍有一些激光雷达公司有计划。

But there are still lidar companies with a plan.

2019年初，一位激光雷达企业家愤怒地批评所谓"闻所未闻"的说法："放屁！让他吃他在2021年说的，看看2021年是否会有大规模生产的激光雷达汽车！那些相信纯视觉的人是一群白痴，他们的大脑被开水烫伤了！"

In early 2019, a lidar entrepreneur angrily criticized the so-called "unheard of" saying: "fart! Let him eat what he said in 2021, and see if there will be mass-produced cars with lidar in 2021! Those who believe in pure vision are a bunch of idiots whose brains are scalded by boiling water! "

在他眼里，不止一次在twitter上，马斯克和他的dis-lidar追随者们都没有什么真正可用的东西。

In his eyes, more than once on twitter, musk and his followers of dis lidar just don't have anything really available.

现在，老板看起来像个脾气暴躁的预言家。但这个看似合理的预测是建立在初创企业和汽车制造商持续两年的调解基础上的，烧钱到处找钱。

Now, the boss looks like a grumpy prophet. But this seemingly reasonable prediction is based on two years of continuous mediation between start-ups and car manufacturers, burning up money and looking for money everywhere.

2019年，当自动驾驶商业化受到质疑，出现萧条迹象时，饱受煎熬的激光雷达公司将无法生存。除了前几家公司几乎无法获得融资外，整个市场已经进入整合和淘汰阶段

In 2019, when the commercialization of automatic driving is questioned and there are signs of depression, lidar company, which has suffered a lot, will not be able to survive. In addition to the first few companies can barely get financing, the whole market has entered the stage of integration and elimination

在中国，我们要么鞠躬开始政府（车路合作）业务，以提高销售业绩，要么完全改变方向，不碰汽车，回到我们更舒适的工业市场，或者。。。停业清算。

In China, we can either turn our bow and start a government (vehicle road collaboration) business to improve sales performance, or completely change our direction without touching cars and return to our more comfortable industrial market, or... Close down and liquidate.

Hesai technology曾被视为velodyne最大的竞争对手之一，该公司制造了出色的机械激光雷达。毕竟，并不是所有公司都能在硅谷自主驾驶公司的产品审批名单上上市。不过，在他们于2021年初提交的招股说明书中，除了亏损1.49亿元外，同样显而易见的是，2019年车载固体激光雷达产品上市后，产品线没有新进展。

Hesai technology, which has made excellent mechanical lidar, was once regarded as one of velodyne's biggest competitors. After all, not all companies can be listed on the product approval list of Silicon Valley autonomous driving companies. However, in the prospectus they submitted at the beginning of 2021, in addition to a loss of 149 million yuan, it is also obvious that after the launch of the vehicle borne solid-state lidar product in 2019, there has been no new progress in the product line.

2020年，当COVID-19被完全压制，出于什么原因，他们只推出了机器人和2G的"大批量"市场。

In 2020, when COVID-19 was completely suppressed, for what reason, they only launched the "good volume" market for robots and 2G.

此外，除了velodyne决定在2019年底撤销其中国办事处，不再直接向中国买家销售激光雷达外，在2020年初，一位悄然破产并解雇员工的激光雷达企业家来和我告别，说"他是一个自动驾驶悲观主义者"，

In addition, in addition to velodyne's decision to abolish its China office at the end of 2019 and no longer sell lidar directly to Chinese buyers, in early 2020, a lidar entrepreneur who quietly went bankrupt and laid off his employees came to say goodbye to me, saying that "he is an automatic driving pessimist.",

"没有人不想把激光雷达卖给汽车厂，但汽车激光雷达的资金投入需要长期稳定，所以我们很难得到活水。汽车厂根本不理我们，养活不了自己。没有希望了。"

"No one doesn't want to sell the lidar to the car factory, but the capital investment of the car lidar requires long-term stability, so it's difficult for us to get living water. The car factory simply ignores us, and can't support itself. There's no hope."

国外的激光雷达公司自然也处于同样的困境。

Foreign lidar companies are naturally in the same predicament.

为了承受未来持续亏损的巨大压力，velodyne、luminar、Outster、innoviz等一批明星企业默许地选择了SPAC相对简单的上市方式快速种粮，进入了"向公众募集研发资金"的新阶段。

In order to withstand the huge pressure of continuous loss in the future, a group of star enterprises, such as velodyne, luminar, Ouster and innoviz, tacitly chose the relatively simple listing method of SPAC to rapidly cultivate grain, and entered a new stage of "raising funds from the public for R & D".

有意思的是，在经历了昙花一现之后，这些上市激光雷达公司的股票开始一路下跌，现在几乎回到了发行价水平。

Interestingly, after experiencing a flash in the pan, the stocks of these listed lidar companies began to decline all the way, and now they are almost back to their offering price level.

velodyne和luminar上市后股价走势

Stock price trend of velodyne and luminar after listing

重要的是，作为一家成立于2012年的年轻公司，luminar的市值超过70亿美元，远高于velodyne徘徊在20亿美元的水平。后者是30多岁的"老人"，规模较大，市场结构较为成熟。

What's significant is that as a young company founded in 2012, luminar's market value of more than $7 billion is much higher than velodyne's hovering $2 billion. The latter is an "old man" in his 30s, with larger size and more mature market structure.

其实，主要原因很简单——无论是成本、性能还是生产规模，前者所期待的产品和众多汽车企业合作伙伴击中了大众汽车市场的兴奋点。后者一直过于依赖"机械激光雷达"，这种产品只存在于工业和自动驾驶利基市场，而新车规格的硬件却没有进步。

In fact, the main reason is very simple - whether it's cost, performance or production scale, the former's expected products and a large number of auto enterprise partners hit the exciting point of the Volkswagen market. The latter has been relying too much on the "mechanical lidar", a product that only exists in the industrial and self driving niche market, while the hardware of new car specifications has not progressed.

那么，是后来的英雄还是后来者？

So, is it the late hero or the late comer?

事实上，几乎所有的初创企业都给出了与luminar相同的承诺，但实际情况是，它们每年的净亏损高达数千万美元。其中，luminar的风险远大于我们的想象，正如其招股说明书所说：

In fact, almost all start-up companies have given the same commitment as luminar, but the reality is that they have a net loss of tens of millions of dollars every year. Among them, luminar's risk is far greater than we think, just as its prospectus says:

在截至2020年9月30日的前9个月，沃尔沃占我们总收入的65%。如果我们不能维持与沃尔沃的关系，那么我们的业务将受到冲击。

In the first nine months to September 30, 2020, Volvo accounted for 65% of our total revenue. If we can't maintain our relationship with Volvo, then our business will be hit.

"从鲁米纳的招股书中可以看出，这款样机实际已经卖出了100多套，收入来源也相对单一。人人都想蹭车厂，但怎么能这么简单？

"As you can see from luminar's prospectus, the prototype has actually sold more than 100 sets, and the source of income is relatively single. Everyone wants to rub the car factory, but how can it be so simple?

这些公司并不像老公司velodyne那样，可以依靠工业市场来来回回地获取一些血液。事实上，它们相当危险。他们的股票虚高。"一位汽车分析师告诉我，他对那些只把鸡蛋放在汽车市场篮子里的初创企业并不乐观。

These companies are not like velodyne, an old company, which can rely on the industrial market to get some blood back and forth. In fact, they are quite dangerous. There is a false high in their stocks. " An auto analyst told me that he was not optimistic about start-ups that only put their eggs in the car market basket.

它在2020年的沉寂与死亡并存中幸存了下来，现在，这个市场将在2021年春天迎来新的爆发，除了感谢新车厂商的超高股价，感谢传统汽车厂商在面对前者时的咄咄逼人和不顾一切的表现，饥饿的激光雷达公司必须感谢巨人们的辛勤工作

It has survived the coexistence of silence and death in 2020. Now, this market will usher in a new outbreak in the spring of 2021. In addition to thanking the new car makers for their super high stock prices, and the traditional car manufacturers for their aggressive and desperate performance in the face of the former, the starving lidar companies must thank the giants for their hard work

华为、大江等企业的加盟，给这个沸腾的市场增添了几分焦虑和兴趣。

The joining of Huawei, Dajiang and other enterprises has added a bit of anxiety and interest to this boiling market.

技术路线决定命运

Technological route decides fate

在每一个行业的创业和争霸史上，历史都在重演：蚂蚁负责第一次的崛起和咆哮，而大象则躲在树下，微笑着什么也不说，选择合适的时机进入，在空中翱翔。

In the history of entrepreneurship and hegemony in every industry, history has been repeating itself: the ants are responsible for rising and roaring for the first time, while the elephants hide under the trees, smile and say nothing, choose the right time to enter and soar in the air.

几年来，已有100多家中小企业进入激光雷达市场，其中大部分是具有名校背景的创业型企业。他们确实做了非常有前瞻性的概念产品，甚至他们的品质和性能都完全可以超越大厂，他们还可以获得好的天使或轮a融资。

Over the past few years, more than 100 small and medium-sized companies have entered the lidar market, most of them are entrepreneurial enterprises with the background of famous schools. They have indeed made very forward-looking concept products, and even their quality and performance can completely surpass those of large factories, and they can also obtain good angel or round a financing.

不过，大昌擅长"抓最后一个蚱蜢王"。他们最终将选择一个保守而安全的解决方案，在主流技术路线上巩固东西方。

However, Dachang is good at "catching the last grasshopper king". They will eventually choose a conservative and safe solution to consolidate the East and West on the mainstream technology route.

近三年来，工业上默认的激光雷达技术架构大致可以分为机械式、MEMS（半固态）、相控阵（OPA，固态）和面阵flash（固态）四种类型。

In the past three years, the technology architecture of lidar by industry default can be roughly divided into four types: mechanical, MEMS (semi-solid), phased array (OPA, solid) and area array flash (solid) lidar.

但到目前为止，大多数自动驾驶车辆也使用机械式激光雷达。这些塑料壳反射着扁平圆柱体的蓝光，尽管人们看不到它内部结构的神秘。但就像它的表面含义一样，巨人的激光发射和扫描原理都是基于机械旋转结构

But until now, most of the automatic driving vehicles also use mechanical lidar. These plastic shells reflect the blue light of the flat cylinder, although people can not see the mystery of its internal structure. But like its surface meaning, the giant's laser emission and scanning principle are all based on the mechanical rotation structure

排成一行的"发射器"从垂直视角发射激光，同时，它恰好站在360度的位置° 这样，光源就可以在平行视角上画成一个线圈。

The "launchers" in a line emit the laser from a vertical angle of view, and at the same time, it happens to be standing in a 360 degree position ° In this way, the light source can be drawn into a coil on the parallel angle of view.

图片来自velodyne，左边是64线机器，右边是16线机器

The picture is from velodyne, 64 line machine on the left and 16 line machine on the right

显然，机械模块堆积得越多，它们就越不稳定。这也是为什么在崎岖不平的环境中工作的矿山无人驾驶车辆等机器的机械激光雷达往往在不到一个月的时间内就损坏的原因。

Obviously, the more mechanical modules are stacked, the less stable they will be. This is also why the mechanical lidar of machines like mine unmanned vehicles working in rough and bumpy environment is often damaged in less than a month.

因此，尽管velodyne等公司通过向自主驾驶公司销售产品赚了不少钱，但由于无人驾驶车辆没有按法律建模，激光雷达的发挥空间不大。如果我们不进入消费型汽车供应链，那么众多的激光雷达企业只会在这样一个小市场上"内卷而死"。

As a result, although velodyne and other companies have made a lot of money by selling their products to autonomous driving companies, there is little room for lidar to play due to the fact that unmanned vehicles have not been modeled by laws. If we don't enter the consumer automotive supply chain, so many lidar companies will only "die of Involution" in such a small market.

全明星激光雷达初创企业瞄准了三大汽车厂商所感兴趣的"整车规格"、"稳定性"和"成本"的产品特点，以2017年为年度分界点，开始致力于MEMS、相控阵（OPA）和flash的研究。

After aiming at the product features of "vehicle specification", "stability" and "cost", which are the three car manufacturers will be interested in, with 2017 as the annual dividing point, all star lidar start-ups began to devote themselves to the research of MEMS, phased array (OPA) and flash.

你应该知道，虽然这三种技术路径存在于精密工业中，但它们从未真正进入汽车领域。谁是第一家批量生产低成本固体激光雷达的公司，谁就有可能成为激光雷达领域的MobileEye。

You should know that although these three technology paths exist in the precision industry, they never really get on the car. Whoever is the first company to make mass production of low-cost solid-state lidar may become Mobileye in the field of lidar.

Quanergy、Blackmore和strobe（后两个后来被收购）于2017年至2018年推出概念产品；

Quanergy, Blackmore and strobe (the latter two were acquired later) launched concept products from 2017 to 2018;

由汽车巨头安博富和软银投资的明星企业Innoviz，以沃尔沃和戴姆勒卡车为后盾的luminar，以及苏腾巨创、和泰等国内领先的初创企业，选择了MEMS半固态路径快速切入；

Innoviz, a star company invested by auto Tier1 giant anbofu and Softbank, luminar, backed by Volvo and Daimler trucks, and leading domestic start-ups such as Suteng juchuang and Hesai, chose MEMS semi-solid path to cut in quickly;

德国科技公司Ibeo和美国明星初创公司outster一直是flash路线的坚定支持者；

Ibeo, a German technology company, and ouster, an American star start-up company, have been staunch supporters of the flash route;

……

……

每个人都在敲锣打鼓向世界展示他们的技术能力。然而，这些所谓的"低成本"、"量产"和"通过车辆规定"的固态激光雷达，却被"二维玩具"印在汽车厂商的合作稿上长达3年之久。

Everyone is beating the drums and gongs to show the world their technological capabilities. However, these so-called "low-cost", "mass production" and "passing the vehicle regulations" solid-state laser radars have been "two dimensional toys" printed in the cooperative manuscripts of automobile manufacturers for as long as three years.

"大家都说要降到1000美元，或者500美元以内，就连华为也说要降到200美元，但实际上他们都没有做到。一位供应链人士透露，目前很多产品仍处于近万元的水平。

"Everyone said that it would be reduced to US $1000, or within us $500. Even Huawei said that it would be reduced to US $200. But in fact, none of them has done it. Things are not stable, and they can't get enough." A supply chain source revealed that many products are still at the level of nearly 10000 yuan.

更重要的是，在过去的几年里，我们见证了量子相控阵雷达的艰难诞生。我们还听说，艾耶的激光雷达烧毁了相机，美国和中国公司之间也有专利诉讼。

What's more, over the past few years, we have witnessed the difficult birth of quanergy phased array radar. We have also heard that ayeye's lidar burned the camera, and there have been patent lawsuits between American and Chinese companies.

直到2021年上海车展，我们看到了华为的新车型——北汽、小鹏、威来，这些都是微不足道的，却让人不断蹲下来拍照。

Until the 2021 Shanghai auto show, we saw the new models of Huawei - BAIC, Xiaopeng and Weilai, which are insignificant, but let people constantly squat down to take pictures.

"哪个大公司不搞内部赛马？华为最初有四个激光雷达团队，包括MEMS、flash和相控阵。最后，一个100多人的团队出来了。"

"Which big company doesn't engage in internal horse racing? Huawei started with four laser radar teams, including MEMS, flash and phased array. Finally, a team of more than 100 people came out. "

令人惊讶的是，超过四星级公司的工程师对华为96线激光雷达给予了"好"的肯定。

Surprisingly, engineers from more than four star companies gave Huawei 96 line lidar "good" affirmation.

"与大多数成立5年以上的企业相比，用两年时间制造出一款基于'转镜'半固态技术的产品，是一项了不起的成就。"

"Compared with most companies that have been founded for more than five years, it is a remarkable achievement to make a product based on semi-solid technology of" rotating mirror "in two years."

但工程师没想到这条技术路线如此强大。相反，他们觉得华为走的是一条经过历史验证的路线，没有太多的技术创新

But the engineer didn't think that this technology route was so powerful. On the contrary, they felt that Huawei had taken a route that had been verified by history and didn't have much technological innovation

华为激光雷达扫描模块为"转镜"。你可以理解，里面有一面镜子在做高速旋转扫描，也属于MEMS，这是一种半固态的路线。

"The scanning module of Huawei lidar is" rotating mirror ". You can understand that there is a mirror inside doing high-speed rotary scanning, also belongs to MEMS, which is a semi-solid route.

他们的产品细节不错，但事实上，"转镜"在业内是一种门槛低、使用方便的产品。你可以看到，机械的一个是在何赛之前做的，转镜也是马上做的；事实上，一直乘坐奥迪A8的法雷奥也使用了一种旋转镜，这是一种经过业界认证的方式。"

The details of their products are good, but in fact, the "rotating mirror" is a kind of low threshold and easy to use in the industry. You can see that the mechanical one was made before Hesai, and the rotating mirror was also made immediately; In fact, Valeo, who has been on Audi A8, also uses a kind of rotating mirror, which is a way that has been certified by the industry. "

就像华为的手机芯片被曝光使用寒武纪人工智能处理器单元一样。这是一个赚钱而不是成名的故事。

It's just like Huawei's mobile phone chips were exposed to use Cambrian AI processor units. It's a story of making money but not fame.

"其实，广告部和民革部都有一点小气。前者是为汽车厂做一个家庭木桶解决方案，"教汽车厂做人"；MDC倡导的是建设生态，与产业链上的兄弟合作。"

"In fact, the ads Department and the MDC department have a bit of a pinch. The former is to make a family barrel solution for the car factory and" teach the car factory how to be a person. "; What MDC advocates is to build ecology and work with brothers in the industrial chain. "

一位同样被迫匿名的华为合作伙伴分析说，虽然这两个部门做了同样的事情，但他们确实有两种策略。不过，他指出，现在，更强大的前者显然占了上风。

A Huawei partner who was also forced to remain anonymous analyzed that although the two departments did the same thing, they did have two strategies. However, he pointed out that now, the more powerful former obviously has the upper hand.

"然而，华为的激光雷达还没有准备好，今年的量产将令人窒息。时间固定了，项目交付怎么能等你呢？"一位外国激光雷达企业家透露，他得到的信息是，华为96线激光雷达都是由意向客户在指定地点进行测试的。

"However, Huawei's lidar is not ready yet, and this year's mass production will be choking. How can the project delivery wait for you when the time is fixed? " A foreign lidar entrepreneur disclosed that the information he got was that Huawei's 96 line lidars were all tested by intended customers in designated places.

"现在要测试自己的产品，我们就得在'小黑屋'里测试，但将来，自己的产品注定要上公车。得到订单的MEMS公司实际上做了一些准备。这不是定局

"To test their products now, we have to test them in the" small dark house ", but in the future, their own products are destined to get on the bus. The MEMS company that got the order actually made some preparations. It's not a foregone conclusion

可以想象，如果点云比较稀疏，则需要多次扫描才能进行弥补，从而导致较长的延迟。如果你在高速公路上遇到什么东西，就来不及扫几圈了。"

As you can imagine, if the point cloud is sparse, it needs to be scanned many times to make up, resulting in a longer delay. If you meet something on the highway, it's too late to sweep a few circles. "

制造MEMS的苏腾等公司指出，他们已经被很多汽车公司指定，而制造闪光灯和相控阵的车载产品仍然是概念产品，存在"测量距离短"、价格相对昂贵、根本没有批量生产等巨大缺陷。

Companies such as Suteng, which makes MEMS, point out that they have been appointed by many auto companies, while the on-board products that make flash and phased array are still concept products, with huge defects such as "short measuring distance", relatively expensive price and no mass production at all.

"今年，我们还有几家主流汽车厂商的名单，已经卖出了几十万辆。"

"This year, we still have a list of several mainstream car manufacturers, which have sold hundreds of thousands of cars."

然而，依附于flash固态线、具有典型硅谷风格的outster，却给了我一个"为什么我们需要做技术创新而不是走老路"的重要理由，或许值得业界借鉴

However, ouster, which adheres to the solid-state line of flash and has a typical Silicon Valley style, gives me an important reason for "why do we need to do technological innovation instead of following the old road", which may be worth the industry's reference

"半固态路线并非不可能。它可以作为汽车行业"上激光雷达"的一种临时方式，但绝对不是汽车厂的最终选择。决战远未结束。"

"The semi-solid route is not out of the question. It can be used as a temporary way for the auto industry to" get on the lidar ", but it is definitely not the final choice for the car factory. The decisive battle is far from over."

诚然，包括Outster在内的一些初创企业仍在一条相当艰难的道路上——寻找激光雷达全数字芯片的可能性：用两块芯片完成机械式和半固态激光雷达几十块电路板和几十块芯片的叠加任务。

It's true that some start-ups, including ouster, are still on a rather difficult road - looking for the possibility of completely digital chip of lidar: using two chips to complete the task of stacking dozens of circuit boards and dozens of chips together for mechanical and semi-solid lidar.

"关于激光雷达技术路线的争论，很像无线电技术创新史。

"The debate over the technological route of lidar is much like the technological innovation history of radio.

晶体管收音机被射频芯片（第三代集成电路收音机）取代后，许多老人会抱怨信号不如以前。事实上，这个问题是存在的。因为新技术需要一点时间来赶上以前的技术，所以激光雷达也一样。

After transistor radios are replaced by radio frequency chips (the third generation of integrated circuit radios), many old people will complain that the signal is not as good as before. In fact, this problem exists. Because new technology takes a little time to catch up with the previous technology, so does lidar.

向前推一点。晶体管收音机过去用电子管。那时候，我们也觉得晶体管的功率没有电子管大，因为那个笨笨的大黑粗的东西看起来不太好。但最终还是被接受了。

Push forward a little bit. Transistor radio used to use electron tube. At that time, we also felt that transistor power was not as big as electron tube, because that stupid big black thick thing didn't look very good. But it was accepted in the end.

我们一开始需要接受新技术的一些缺陷，整个时代最终会完全接受它。"

We need to accept some defects of new technology at the beginning, and the whole era will finally accept it completely. "

泡沫与混乱

Bubbles and chaos

除了技术爱好者对纯固态芯片激光雷达的无限期待外，也许在2021年上海车展上，我们从车辆角度观察到的奇妙图像和有趣细节表明，"只有吹泡泡，激光雷达才能揭示其真正价值"。

In addition to the technological aspirants' never-ending expectations for pure solid-state chip laser radars, perhaps at the 2021 Shanghai motor show, the fantastic images and funny details we observed from the vehicle perspective show that "only by blowing bubbles, lidar can reveal its true value".

这次车展最让我震惊的不是离奇的概念车和飞机，而是我听到的站在小鹏P5展示车前的两个年轻人的对话

What shocked me most about this auto show was not the bizarre concept car and aircraft, but the conversation between two young people I heard standing in front of the Xiaopeng P5 display car

"看，那是激光雷达！"

"Look, that's lidar!"

"真是个激光雷达！有点牛。我们真的能实现L4自动驾驶吗？"

"What a lidar! It's a bit of a bull. Can we really realize L4 automatic driving? "

"也许吧，但它有很强的探测能力，而且能感知到%￥ 200米以内。"

"Maybe, but it has a strong detection ability, and can sense% ￥ within 200 meters."

一位一级工程师回忆说："世界上第一辆配备激光雷达的奥迪A8，事实上，激光雷达根本没有'解锁'，圈内所有人都知道。"。当时业界的认知是"激光雷达必然具备L3以上的自动驾驶能力"。

"The world's first Audi A8 equipped with lidar, in fact, the lidar didn't" unlock "at all, and everyone in the circle knew it," recalls one Tier1 engineer. At that time, the industry's cognition was that "lidar is bound with the automatic driving ability above L3".

"因为L3以上的汽车驾驶能力决定了事故责任将由汽车厂商承担，所以他们不愿提及是否会上激光雷达，尤其是相对保守的主流汽车厂商。"

"Because the auto driving ability above L3 determines that the accident responsibility will be borne by the car manufacturers, so they are not willing to mention whether they will be on the lidar, especially the relatively conservative mainstream car manufacturers."

但这并不影响中国汽车厂商越来越大的勇气，愿意卖车的那一关键步骤，毕竟每个人的最终目标都是卖车。

But this does not affect the growing courage of Chinese car manufacturers willing to sell that key step, after all, everyone's ultimate goal is to sell the car.

一位激光雷达市场部经理说："你可能没想到今年（2021年）会有23款车型配备激光雷达。经过这么长时间，激光雷达在汽车市场的元年终于到来。根据他们的内部评估，到2025年，18-20%的新车型可能会装备激光雷达。

"You may not expect that there will be 23 models equipped with lidar this year (2021)," said one lidar marketing manager. After so long, the first year of lidar in the automobile market has finally come. According to their internal assessment, 18-20% of new models may be equipped with lidar by 2025.

"这波浪潮应该由新能源汽车带来。但你猜不到，这23款车中，大部分都是主流汽车厂商的新能源车型。

"This wave should be brought by new energy vehicles. But you can't guess that most of the 23 cars are new energy models of mainstream car manufacturers.

我们一看到造车的新军在激光雷达上，大家都很着急。这不是很多行业都有的吗

As soon as we see that the new force of car building is on lidar, we are all in a hurry. Isn't that what many industries have

"你拥有它，我想要它"的追求心理让人们似乎不在乎自己在激光雷达上想做什么。例如，对于它是摄像头led解决方案的辅助工具还是替代摄像头led解决方案，没有一家汽车制造商给出明确的答案。

The pursuit psychology of "you have it and I want it" makes it seem that people don't care what they want to do when they are on the lidar. For example, no car manufacturer has given a clear answer as to whether it is an auxiliary tool for the camera led solution or an alternative camera led solution.

"不管怎样，每个人都学会了聪明。即使他们有相机和激光雷达，他们也不会说他们在L3以上。如果他们模糊了，他们会说他们将实现"高级自动驾驶"。至于激光雷达是否真的起作用，在什么场景下解锁，估计车厂会有一波水波。"

"Anyway, everyone has learned to be smart. Even if they have cameras and lidar, they will never say that they are above L3. If they blur, they will say that they will achieve" high-level automatic driving. ". As for whether the lidar really works or not, and under what scene to unlock, it is estimated that there will be a wave of water in the car factory. "

他的猜测完全正确。

His guess is absolutely correct.

在过去的三个月里，一家汽车厂做出了惊人的举动。在新车上市前一周，他们听说造车新力的一家公司竟然在自己的车上造了一个激光雷达，于是赶紧命令他们的工程和营销团队给车身找个地方插上激光雷达。

In the past three months, a car factory has made an amazing move. One week before the launch of the new model, they heard that a company of the new force of car building had actually built a lidar on its own car, so they hurriedly ordered their engineering and marketing team to find a place for the car body to plug in the lidar.

"仔细想想，每一款车型从设计出来到最终样机，至少需要两年的时间。有一个很长的周期。你怎么能加上呢？就连玩具也做不到，"一位汽车供应链人士轻蔑地评论各种汽车制造商的荒谬要求，

"If you think about it, it must take at least two years for each model to come out from the design to the final prototype. There is a very long cycle. How can you just add it? Even toys can't do that," an auto supply chain source scornfully commented on the absurd requirements of various car manufacturers,

"我肯定不能加，但领导就是这么问的："你也要给我贴上！"

"I'm sure it can't be added, but that's what the leader asked:" you have to stick it on for me, too! "

好！你猜怎么着？他们找到了一个供应商，买了100个样品，都是固定的。是真的！

well! Guess what? They found a supplier and bought 100 samples, which were fixed. It's true!

更有趣的是，他们要求把激光雷达安装在车顶上，因为"金项链必须让别人看到"

What's more funny is that they require that the lidar be installed on the roof of the car, because "the gold necklace must be seen by others."

这应该是我见过的最荒谬、最神奇的现实。

This should be the most absurd and magical reality I have ever seen.

纵观这些年来的激光雷达市场，我从来不知道有一天"激光雷达"会被用作汽车的"内饰"，因为马斯克（因为他diss lidar，也叫lidar out the circle）和自动驾驶，吸引了大量关注激光雷达的年轻人。

Looking at the lidar market over the years, I never knew that "lidar" would one day be used as "interior decoration" in cars, attracting a large number of young people who pay attention to lidar because of musk (because he diss lidar, which is also called lidar out of the circle) and automatic driving.

"你只能说，中国的一些主机制造商已经在追随汽车制造的新势力，而大多数外国汽车制造商实际上相当冷静。但肉眼可以看出，他们在"自驾能力"的浪潮中有些落后

"You can only say that some main engine manufacturers in China are already following the new forces of car making, while most foreign car manufacturers are actually quite calm. But the naked eye can see that they are a little behind in the wave of "self driving ability."

这里我得提一下velodyne。有分析认为，velodyne决定解散中国直销团队，将汽车产品推广的市场重心转向欧美，实际上是一个错误。毕竟，欧美汽车厂商和国内汽车厂商的"要求和规定"有时是两个标准。

Here I have to mention velodyne. It was analyzed that velodyne's decision to disband the Chinese direct sales team and turn the market focus of promoting car products to Europe and the United States was actually a mistake. After all, the "demands and regulations" of European and American car manufacturers and domestic car manufacturers are sometimes two standards.

"不要把车规看得太重。事实上，人们总是说他们已经通过了汽车规则，但是当我们去谈论客户时，我们慢慢发现每个汽车工厂的标准都有很大的不同。"一位激光雷达销售经理说，现在连日系车都在陆续推出激光雷达，大家都在争抢仅有的两三年自动驾驶的窗口期。

"Don't take the car rules too seriously. As a matter of fact, people always say that they have passed the car rules, but when we went to talk about customers, we slowly found that the standards of each car factory are very different. " A lidar sales manager said that now even Japanese cars are being launched on lidar one after another, and everyone is scrambling for the only two or three years window of automatic driving.

"激进和大胆有时会让这个行业走得更快。毫无疑问，汽车确实需要更先进的认知。也许10年后会有什么东西取代激光雷达，但现在，就是它了。"

"Being radical and bold sometimes makes the industry go faster. There's no doubt that cars really need more advanced perception. Maybe there will be something to replace lidar in 10 years, but now, it's it. "

"虽然华为看起来确实很强大，基本上是教北汽做人，但他们也很担心，因为如果他们想把自己的家族解决方案复制到其他汽车上，最终还是要看奇虎的销量。"

"Although Huawei does seem to be very strong, basically teaching BAIC how to be a man, they are also worried, because if they want to copy their family barrel solution to other cars, it will ultimately depend on the sales volume of Jihu."

一位汽车tier2供应商认为，华为比大江等公司具有更强的"汽车工厂式"气质，因此更容易在Tier1取得成功。但不管产品有多强大，有多核心，销量都决定着他们是否走这条路。

One auto tier2 supplier believes that Huawei has a stronger "car factory like" temperament than Dajiang and other companies, so it is easier to succeed in Tier1. But no matter how strong, how hard core products, sales determine whether they go this way.

然而，与一直处于特殊地位的华为相比，大多数激光雷达企业，无论技术水平和产品水平如何，仍然要以"叫爸爸"的态度服务于一级和汽车厂。最终，只有少数几家公司会出来。

However, compared with Huawei, which is always in a special position, most lidar companies, regardless of their technology and product level, still have to serve Tier1 and car factories with the attitude of "calling dad". In the end, only a few companies will come out.

即使是激光雷达本身，就像50年前非常流行的铜冷却发动机一样，在更好的替代品到来之前，它也将很快消失。

Even the lidar itself, like the copper cooled engine that was so popular 50 years ago, will soon disappear before a better alternative arrives.

最后：

At the end:

当我在车展上闲逛时，我也发现普通人和业界都忽略了这样一个细节：

When I strolled around the auto show, I also found that ordinary people and industry are ignoring such a detail:

大众消费者对激光雷达的好奇与汽车服务产业链中激光雷达和自动驾驶基础知识的缺乏之间的巨大差距也值得进一步修正。

The huge gap between the curiosity of mass consumers about lidar and the lack of basic knowledge of lidar and automatic driving in the automobile service industry chain is also worth further correction.

在小鹏、威来、华为的激光雷达型号面前，我受到了销售人员的热情询问和款待。

Before Xiaopeng, Weilai and Huawei's lidar models, I was warmly inquired and entertained by the sales.

不过，除了华为的工程师能为我解释激光雷达的功能和缺点外，另外两个帅气又有说服力的销量，当我提到激光雷达时，只能说"强大的自动驾驶能力"和"防撞能力"是可有可无的解释，

However, in addition to Huawei's engineers who can explain the functions and shortcomings of lidar for me, the other two handsome and compelling sales, when I mention lidar, can only say "powerful automatic driving ability" and "anti-collision" which are dispensable explanations,

"姐姐，我刚接手这个模特儿。我真的不熟悉这种型号的功能。而且，这款车只能在明年推出。如果你有兴趣，为什么不给我加一个微信呢？"

"Sister, I've just taken over this model. I'm really not familiar with the functions of this model. Moreover, this car can only be launched next year. If you're interested, why don't you add me a wechat?"

在一个人人都在呼吁"软件定义的汽车"和"抓住自动驾驶的最后一扇窗户"的时代，我发现大多数相关人员都不知道自己在呼吁什么。

In an era when everyone is calling for "software defined car" and "seizing the last window of automatic driving", I find that most of the people involved do not know what they are calling for.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210520/20210520A01EA300.html

update time：2021-05-20 13:48:37