Meituan released a very frightening financial report

01

01

让悲观者更悲观，让乐观者更乐观。

Let the pessimist be more pessimistic, let the optimist be more optimistic.

这是美团（03690）在2021年第一季度的第一印象。

This is the first impression of meituan (03690) in the first quarter of 2021.

对于乐观主义者来说，美团的财务报告好得吓人，它的势头就像彩虹

For optimists, meituan's financial report is frighteningly good, and its momentum is like a rainbow

一个季度，美团每年新增活跃买家超过5900万，创下了美团的历史纪录。第一季度，美团在中国所有平台上的新用户数量最多。不是所有的电子商务平台，而是所有的平台。2020年，美团新增用户仅6000万，其中第四季度单季度新增用户3410万。2021年，基本完成去年全年用户增长。

There were more than 59 million new annual active buyers in a single quarter, which set a historical record for meituan. Meituan had the largest number of new users on all platforms in China in the first quarter. Not all e-commerce platforms, but all platforms. In 2020, only 60 million new users will be added to meituan, of which 34.1 million will be added in Q4 in a single quarter. In 2021, the increase of users in the whole year of last year will be basically completed.

在新用户数量激增的同时，人均消费量也大幅增加，达到30.5%。新用户增长越快，单个用户的年平均消费量就越慢，甚至出现负增长，因为新用户的平均消费量肯定会降低。然而，美团在用户数量和消费量同时实现了大幅增长，这在近两年的拼多多中屡见不鲜。

While the number of new users soared, the average number of consumption per user also increased significantly, reaching 30.5. The faster the growth of new users, the slower the average annual consumption of a single user, or even the negative growth, because new users will definitely lower the average. However, meituan has achieved a substantial increase in the number of users and consumption at the same time, which is a frequent occurrence in pinduoduo in the past two years.

一季度收入370亿元，同比增长121%，环比仅下降2.4%。第一季度是传统淡季，第四季度是传统旺季。因此，一季度业绩通常有两位数的环比下滑，尤其是成熟公司。参照同行业，阿里巴巴一季度本地寿险业务同比增速仅为50%，而环比下降13.2%。与其他新兴经济巨头相比，阿里巴巴一季度环比下跌15.2%，京东一季度环比下跌9.4%，品多多一季度环比下跌16.5%。

The quarterly revenue is 37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 121%, and a month on month decrease of only 2.4%. The first quarter is the traditional off-season, and the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season. Therefore, the performance in the first quarter usually has a double-digit month on month decline, especially for mature companies. Referring to the same industry, the growth rate of Alibaba's local life business in the first quarter was only 50% year-on-year, while it fell by 13.2% month on month. Compared with other new economic giants, Alibaba's Q1 fell 15.2% month on month, Jingdong's 9.4% month on month, and pinduoduo's 16.5% month on month.

细分市场方面，外卖、店内酒游、新业务增长均超过100%，特别是新业务增长超过136%，规模达到99亿元，占总收入的26.8%。三年内，这部分业务占到整体业务的50%以上，概率很大。也就是说，以2020年为节点，美团只用了三年时间，就有可能打造出另一个美丽的群体。

In terms of segments, take out, in store wine travel and new business all grew by more than 100%, especially new business, which grew by more than 136%, and the scale reached 9.9 billion yuan, accounting for 26.8% of the overall revenue. Within three years, this part of business accounted for more than 50% of the overall business, which is a big probability. In other words, taking 2020 as the node, meituan only spent three years, It's possible to create another beautiful group.

对于悲观主义者来说，美团的财务报告很糟糕

For pessimists, meituan's financial report is terrible

新业务单季度亏损80亿元，其中大部分来自美团优化，利润相去甚远。仅此一项就可以让许多投资者重新投资。

The new business lost 8 billion yuan in a single quarter, most of which came from meituan optimization, and the profit is far away. This alone can make many investors back.

新用户的增长可能是短暂和不可持续的。

The growth of new users may be short-lived and unsustainable.

在激烈的竞争、政策风险、巨大的投资和微薄的利润下，社区团购可能一无所获。

With fierce competition, policy risks, huge investment and meager profits, group buying in communities may come to nothing.

显然，我更愿意站在乐观主义者一边。在我看来，这是一份比预期要好得多的财务报告。现在，请给我大约10分钟的时间整理一下它的业务表现和内部逻辑。

And I, obviously, prefer to be on the optimist's side. In my opinion, this is a much better financial report than expected. Now, please give me about 10 minutes to sort out its business performance and internal logic.

02

02

当2020年第四季度财务报告发布时，我写了一篇文章说，

When the Q4 financial report was released in 2020, I wrote an article saying,

"美团未来三年的用户增长空间可能会打开，每年新增用户超过1亿的序幕可能会慢慢打开。"

"Meituan's user growth space in the next three years is likely to open up, and the prelude to the annual increase of more than 100 million new users may be slowly opening up."

2021年第一季度的用户增长表现验证了最初的判断，进一步提高了这一预期的确定性。

The user growth performance of Q1 in 2021 verifies the original judgment and further improves the certainty of this expectation.

如果其他业务继续增加1-2亿用户，美团的用户数将达到10亿。届时，中国将有3个10亿消费平台，分别是阿里巴巴、品多多和美团。这将是一个大概率事件。

If other businesses continue to add 100-200 million users, the number of meituan users will reach 1 billion. At that time, there will be three 1 billion consumer platforms in China, namely Alibaba, pinduoduo and meituan. This will be a high probability event.

03

03

美团是一个生活服务门户网站，一个本地生活交易平台和一个零售平台。如果说用户数量是基石，那么订单数量就是生命线，也是衡量平台价值的金线。

Meituan is a life service portal, a local life trading platform and a retail platform. If the number of users is the cornerstone, then the number of orders is the lifeline and the golden line to measure the value of the platform.

每一个订单都代表着平台上用户的投票，代表着平台上用户的信任，也意味着平台与商家和用户的连接。订单越多，平台的连接能力越强，平台的价值就越大。

Each order represents a vote of users on the platform, represents a trust of users on the platform, and also means a connection of the platform to merchants and users. The more orders, the stronger the connection ability of the platform, the greater the value of the platform.

订单数量分为用户数*单个用户年平均消费次数。

The order quantity is divided into the number of users * the average annual consumption times of a single user.

因此，在用户快速增长的情况下，另一个需要关注的核心数据是单用户年平均消费次数。

Therefore, in the case of rapid growth of users, another core data that needs attention is the average annual consumption times of single user.

如果用户数量和单用户年平均消费量同时快速增长，订单量将爆炸式增长，平台价值将迎来新时代。

If the number of users and the average annual consumption of a single user increase rapidly at the same time, the order volume will increase explosively, and the platform value will usher in its new era.

"由于2021年新用户数量创纪录的可能性很大，每个用户的交易数量可能不会有明显变化。乐观的话，可能会略微增加到30倍左右。"

"Since there is a high probability that a record number of new users will be recorded in 2021, the number of transactions per user may not change significantly. Optimistic, it is likely to increase slightly to about 30 times. "

现在只有Q1，是30.5倍。

Now it's only Q1, and that's 30.5 times.

然而，回过头来看，我认为这是合理的。

However, looking back, I think it is reasonable.

一方面，2020年的数据实际上部分失真，因为疫情对当地生活的影响非常大，28.1倍的数据可能更大。

On the one hand, the data of 2020 is actually partially distorted, because the impact of the epidemic on local life is very large, and the data of 28.1 times may have been larger.

另一方面，新用户主要来自美团优化，这是一种高频率、小批量、低客户单价的刚需消费场景。一个顾客通常一次订购七、八个甚至更多。这部分业务实际上会增加单个用户的平均消费次数。

On the other hand, new users mainly come from meituan optimization, which is a high-frequency, small amount and just need consumption scenario with low customer unit price. A customer usually orders about seven or eight or even more at a time. This part of business will actually increase the average number of consumption times of a single user.

因此，我们能否对2021年单用户年消费量有更高的预期，比如35-40倍，甚至更多？

Therefore, we can have a higher expectation of the number of single user annual consumption in 2021, such as 35-40 times, or even more?

04

04

如果你理解了电子商务平台的内在价值和逻辑，其实可以在这里看到，本文后面的部分只是前一个逻辑的自然延伸。

If you understand the intrinsic value and logic of the e-commerce platform, you can actually see here, and the latter part of this article is only a natural extension of the former logic.

用户数量和单用户年平均消费次数同时大幅增加，订单量势必飙升。即使客户单价下降，Gmv也会大幅增加，但幅度可能略小于订单量的增加。随着Gmv的快速增长，佣金将大幅增加。一个用户多、交易多、订单多的平台，必然会带来更活跃的营销，广告营销收入也会大幅增加。那么整体收入也将大幅增加。在规模效应和效率的驱动下，利润只是时间问题。

The number of users and the average annual consumption times of a single user increase significantly at the same time, and the order volume is bound to soar. Even if the customer unit price decreases, Gmv will also increase significantly, but the extent may be slightly less than the increase of order volume. With the rapid growth of Gmv, the Commission will increase dramatically. A platform with more users, more frequent transactions and more orders will inevitably lead to more active marketing, and the advertising marketing revenue will increase significantly. Then the overall revenue will also increase significantly. Driven by the scale effect and efficiency, profit is only a matter of time.

当然，为了呈现完整的业务进展，我们将继续分析。

Of course, in order to present the complete business progress, we will continue to analyze.

05

05

财报提供的数据显示，用户数已达5.69亿，单用户年平均消费次数上升至30.5倍，这意味着截至3月31日的12个月内，美团的订单量已达173.6亿。与2020年第四季度相比，订单量增加30.1亿份。

According to the data provided by the financial report, the number of users has reached 569 million, and the average annual consumption times of a single user has risen to 30.5 times, which means that the order volume of meituan in the 12 months ended March 31 has reached 17.36 billion. Compared with Q4 in 2020, the number of orders increased by 3.01 billion.

财报数据显示，餐饮外卖业务环比下降4.47%，酒店旅游业务环比下降7.72%。社区团购业务肯定会逐月增长。如果没有社区团购，预计新业务将环比下降5%左右。在社区团购的影响下，环比增长5.92%，也就是说社区团购带来了10.92%的增量，折合人民币约8.1亿元。

According to the financial report data, the catering take out business declined by 4.47% on a month on month basis, and the hotel travel business declined by 7.72% on a month on month basis. The community group buying business is sure to grow on a month on month basis. If there is no community group buying, it is expected that the new business will decline by about 5% on a month on month basis. With the impact of community group buying, it has increased by 5.92% month on month, which means that community group buying has brought about 10.92% increment, equivalent to about 810 million yuan.

美团优选一季度的营收约为去年四季度的两倍，这意味着美团优选一季度的营收约为12亿元。根据业内人士的数据，该平台的收入约为Gmv的10%，业务的Gmv约为120亿元。如果按照品多多的6元计算客户单价，对应20亿元，或者说美团优选客户单价略高。基本上应该在15亿到20亿之间。

The revenue of meituan preferred in the first quarter is about twice that of last year's Q4, which means that the revenue of meituan preferred in the first quarter is about 1.2 billion yuan. According to the data we get from the industry practitioners, the revenue of the platform is about 10% of Gmv, and the Gmv of the business can be about 12 billion yuan. If the unit price of customers is calculated according to pinduoduo's 6 yuan, it corresponds to 2 billion yuan, or the unit price of meituan preferred customers is slightly higher. Basically, it should be between 1.5 billion and 2 billion.

06

06

一季度总收入370亿元，其中餐饮外卖业务收入206亿元，占比55.6%；酒店旅游业务收入66亿元，占比17.8%；新业务收入99亿，占比26.6%。

In the first quarter, the total revenue was 37 billion yuan, including 20.6 billion yuan for catering takeout business, accounting for 55.6%; The revenue of the hotel travel business was 6.6 billion, accounting for 17.8%; New business revenue was 9.9 billion, accounting for 26.6%.

酒店旅游业务的利润率重回上一个高峰，达到41.7%。不要改变利润的性质。

The profit margin of the hotel travel business returned to its previous peak, reaching 41.7%. Do not change the nature of profits.

08

08

新业务亏损较大，达80亿元。大部分亏损来自社区团购美团。

The new business suffered a large loss, reaching 8 billion yuan. Most of the losses came from community group buying meituan.

这就是为什么悲观主义者会冷静下来。接下来，让我们仔细分析一下业务的进展情况。

That's why pessimists take a cool breath. Next, let's carefully analyze the progress of the business.

从长期运营的角度来看，并不总是有机会花钱获得大量的长期用户。比如，假设没有出现社区团购的机会，美团在当地生活领域花费80亿在一个季度内获得6000万长期用户几乎是不可能的，因为大部分市场都是由美团开发的。

From the standpoint of long-term operation, there is not always an opportunity to spend money to obtain a large number of long-term users. For example, assuming that the opportunity of community group buying does not appear, it is almost impossible for meituan to spend 8 billion to obtain 60 million long-term users in a quarter in the local life field, because most of the market has been developed by meituan.

因此，如何看待亏损完全取决于你如何看待美团在以社区团购为代表的实体电子商务领域的长远发展。

Therefore, how to look at the loss completely depends on how you look at the long-term future of meituan in the field of physical e-commerce represented by community group buying.

如果你认为美团有必要进入实体电子商务领域，那就是在向你证明，美团很好地抓住了这个机会。那么一切都是值得的。

If you think it is necessary for meituan to enter the field of physical e-commerce, it is proving to you that it is well capturing this opportunity. Then everything is worth it.

如果你认为美团从长远来看在实体电子商务领域没有机会，那么这笔钱纯粹是浪费。

If you think meituan has no chance in the field of physical e-commerce in the long run, then the money is a pure waste.

在我看来，这对美团来说是一个巨大的机会。在财务分析中，管理层表示，美团优选业务的保留率非常好，这意味着如果3-4亿美团优选用户聚集，这些客户的投资就会减少，从长远来看，利润不会有问题。

In my opinion, this is a huge opportunity for meituan. In the financial analysis, the management said that the retention rate of meituan preferred business is very good, which means that if 300-400 million meituan preferred users gather, the investment of these customers will be reduced, and in the long run, the profit will not be a problem.

随着科技的发展，无人机和无人机送餐技术的进步，美团实体电子商务商品供应链的丰富和完善，城市化率的提高，首选用户与美团外卖、到店等传统商务用户的协同效应将显著增强。原有的美团外卖、店内酒游、自行车等客户可以进行实物电子商务消费，而首选下沉市场的电子商务用户也可以进入外卖、店内酒游、自行车、出租车等消费领域。

With the development of technology, the advancement of UAV and UAV meal delivery technology, the enrichment and improvement of meituan's physical e-commerce commodity supply chain, and the improvement of urbanization rate, the synergy between preferred users and traditional business users such as meituan's take out and store arrival will be significantly enhanced. The original meituan takeout, in store liquor tour, bicycle and other customers can carry out physical e-commerce consumption, and the preferred sinking market e-commerce users can also enter the consumption fields of takeout, in store liquor tour, bicycle, taxi and so on.

而社区团购是一项盈利能力和战略价值可能高于传统实体电子商务的业务。

And community group buying is a business whose profitability and strategic value are likely to be higher than that of traditional physical e-commerce.

从消费者方面来看，它侧重于小、高频率和刚需消费场景，用户价值更突出，粘性更强。品多多和美团管理层在财务报告中的表述印证了这一观点。其未来的Gmv可能达不到现有实体电子商务几万亿的规模，规模可能会稍小一些，但其订单量超越传统实体电子商务几乎是必然的。

From the consumer side, it focuses on small, high-frequency and just need consumption scenarios, with more prominent user value and stronger stickiness. The statements made by pinduoduo and meituan management in the financial report have verified this view. Its future Gmv may not reach the scale of several trillion of existing physical e-commerce, which may be slightly smaller, but it is almost inevitable that its order volume will surpass that of traditional physical e-commerce.

从商家方面来看，进入传统实体电子商务平台的概率是100%，这无非是一个好坏问题，而进入社区团购平台的概率只有10%，因为传统实体电子商务的货架是无限的货架，而社区团购电子商务的货架都是限量货架。这意味着更多的竞争和残酷。

From the merchant side, the probability of entering the traditional physical e-commerce platform is 100%, which is nothing more than a good or bad problem, while the probability of entering the community group buying platform is only 10%, because the shelves of the traditional physical e-commerce are infinite shelves, while the shelves of the community group buying e-commerce are limited shelves. That means more competition and cruelty.

所以对于平台来说，相比传统的实体电子商务，它有更大的发言权。其盈利模式非常清晰。目前实现率约为10%。未来，随着规模的扩大和补贴的减少，兑现率无疑将提高到15%-20%。详情请参考线下连锁便利店毛利率。此外，会计期间可以延长。到货时间24小时内，库存周转天数远低于实体电子商务，资金利用效率远高于传统实体电子商务。

So for the platform, compared with the traditional physical e-commerce, it has a greater say. Its profit model is very clear. The current realization rate is about 10%. In the future, with the expansion of scale and the decrease of subsidies, there is no doubt that the realization rate will increase to 15-20%. For details, please refer to the gross profit rate of offline chain convenience stores. Moreover, the accounting period can be extended. Within 24 hours of arrival time, the number of days of inventory turnover is much lower than that of physical e-commerce, and the capital utilization efficiency is much higher than that of traditional physical e-commerce.

09

09

"强赌"是宁德时报董事长曾玉群在办公室的照片。

"Strong gambling" is a picture of Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde times, in his office.

福建人王兴说："一位早年有幸在宁德投资的朋友说，当他第一次走进公司创始人曾玉群狭窄的办公室时，他感到震惊。墙上有五个大字："赌博更厉害！"！他说，那时候，他以为真的是福建人，就开玩笑说，"你为什么不挂断'爱拼赢'曾正色说：光拼是不够的。这是体力劳动；赌博是脑力劳动。"

Wang Xing, a fellow of Fujian Province, said, "a friend who was lucky enough to have invested in Ningde in his early years said that he was shocked when he first walked into the narrow Office of Zeng Yuqun, the founder of the company. There were five big words on the wall:" gambling is stronger. "! He said that at that time, he thought that it was really Fujianese and joked, "why don't you hang up" love to fight to win? " Zeng zhengse said: it's not enough to just spell. It's physical work; Gambling is brain work. "

当然，在这里赌博并不意味着赌博。这意味着，如果你坚持一件事，并看到正确的方向，即使你阻止一切，你应该不惜一切代价。

Gambling here, of course, doesn't mean gambling. It means that if you stick to one thing and see the right direction, even if you block everything, you should do it at all costs.

如果你对未来有足够的信心，那么你就会有足够的耐心，愿意投资于现在。不知道的人认为这是赌博，知道的人知道这是播种浇水。

If you have enough confidence in the future, then you will be patient enough and willing to invest in the present. People who don't know it think it's gambling, and people who know it know it's sowing and watering.

用《美团》里一句流行的话来概括，就是：长期忍耐。

To sum up with a popular sentence in meituan, it is: long term patience.

巧合的是，王兴在2020年7月分享了这段话，这也是美团进军社区团购领域的开始。

Coincidentally, Wang Xing shared this passage in July 2020, which was the beginning of meituan's march into the field of community group buying.

如果猜对了，王兴当时大概明白，实体电子商务需要"博彩力强"和长期耐心。

If you guessed correctly, Wang Xing probably understood at that time that physical e-commerce needs to be "strong in gambling" and long-term patience.

在投资领域，总有几个人真的很有耐心。因此，美团的股价短期内将如何反映本次财报的业绩，目前还很难说。但从长远来看，其平台价值正在迅速扩大。

In the investment field, there are always a few people who are really patient. Therefore, it is difficult to say how the stock price of meituan will reflect the performance of this financial report in the short term. But in the long run, its platform value is rapidly expanding.

十

ten

作为题外话，反垄断调查和社会保障只是长期的浪潮。

As a digression, antitrust investigation and social security are just waves in the long run.

从财报后管理层披露的信息来看，社保问题基本上有了妥善的解决方案，而反垄断问题则相对容易解决。

According to the information disclosed by the management after the financial report, the social security problem basically has a proper solution, while the anti-monopoly problem is relatively easier to solve.

在财报解读会上，王兴表示，"反垄断调查对于互联网行业来说是非常重要和必要的。美团成立了一个团队，与监管部门沟通，无条件配合。我们的内部管理和合规标准已经调整。合规是战略重点之一。我们已经充分回顾了过去的问题。商家有自己的选择，我们不会孤军奋战，我们建立了更好的透明机制，实现更好的监管。对日常运行无明显影响。我相信这不会影响我们的竞争优势。从整体上看，可以提高支撑、效率、数字化转型，为商家解决痛点。按需分销网络的快速发展将扩大我们的竞争优势。

In the financial report interpretation meeting, Wang Xing said, "the anti-monopoly investigation is very important and necessary for the Internet industry. Meituan has set up a team to communicate with the supervision and cooperate unconditionally. Our internal management and compliance standards have been adjusted. Compliance is one of the strategic priorities. We have fully reviewed the past problems. Merchants have their own choice, we will not be alone, we have established a better transparent mechanism to achieve better supervision. There is no obvious impact on the daily operation. I believe it will not affect our competitive advantage. From the overall perspective, we can improve the support, efficiency, digital transformation and solve the pain points for the merchants. The rapid growth of on-demand distribution network will expand our competitive advantage.

在社会保障方面，在工伤方面，我们将根据试点提供相关保障，包括平台、政府和保险公司，为乘车人提供更好的职业保障。一旦发生工伤，该系统可以提供支持，还有商业保险覆盖。我们将与政府合作。骑手是我们的商业伙伴，对我们的进一步发展不可或缺。在社保方面，骑乘人员是灵活就业人员，政府今后将探索相关机制。政府也会提供指引，我们也会采取相关措施，让乘客无后顾之忧。"

In terms of social security, in the area of industrial injury, we will provide relevant protection according to the pilot project, including the platform, the government and insurance companies, to provide better occupational protection for riders. Once industrial injury occurs, the system can provide support, and there is also commercial insurance coverage. We will cooperate with the government. Riders are our business partners and indispensable for our further growth. In terms of social security, riders are flexible employees, and the government will explore relevant mechanisms in the future. The government will also provide guidance and we will take relevant measures to make riders have no worries. "

明星标准华尔街新闻，好内容不容错过

Star standard wall street news, good content not to miss

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210530/20210530A09HUP00.html

update time：2021-05-31 18:56:41