Revenue "standing still" media resources down, focus media is overestimated?

受疫情影响，2020年影院媒体收入将降至4.8亿，占比不到4%；建筑传媒收入115.8亿元，占比95.7%。

Due to the impact of the epidemic, cinema media revenue will drop to 480 million in 2020, accounting for less than 4%; The revenue of building media reached 11.58 billion, accounting for 95.7%.

2017年以来，分众传媒自营媒体资源规模呈下降趋势。

Since 2017, the scale of focus's self operated media resources has shown a downward trend.

2017年，自营媒体总数152万家（设备，下同）；

In 2017, the total number of self operated media was 1.52 million (equipment, the same below);

2018年收购阿里战略投资后，媒体规模猛增，年末资源总量达到266万，同比增长75.4%。

After acquiring Ali's strategic investment in 2018, the scale of media has soared, with the total number of resources reaching 2.66 million at the end of the year, an increase of 75.4% year on year.

到2019年底，减少到249万套，同比减少6.5%；

By the end of 2019, it will be reduced to 2.49 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%;

到2020年底，将进一步减少到237万台，下降4.7%。

By the end of 2020, it will be further reduced to 2.37 million units, a decrease of 4.7%.

福克斯还通过参股和特许经营获得媒体资源。

Focus also obtains media resources through equity participation and franchise.

截至2018年底，运营媒体总数277万家，其中自营266万家，占比96%；

By the end of 2018, the total number of operating media was 2.77 million, of which 2.66 million were self operated, accounting for 96%;

截至2019年底，经营性媒体总数263万家，同比下降5.2%，其中自营媒体249万家，占比94.7%；

By the end of 2019, the total number of operating media was 2.63 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, of which 2.49 million were self operated, accounting for 94.7%;

到2020年底，运营媒体总数260万家，其中自营媒体237万家，占91.4%。

By the end of 2020, the total number of operating media is 2.6 million, of which 2.37 million are self operated, accounting for 91.4%.

此外，分众影院的媒体规模约2000家，屏幕约12000块。

In addition, the media scale of focus cinema is about 2000, with about 12000 screens.

3） 建筑业是主导

3) Building business is the leading role

建筑媒体分为电梯电视和电梯海报。

Building media is divided into elevator TV and elevator poster.

电梯电视通常设置在电梯门的两侧，具有高清屏幕、音像结合的循环播放模式。通过对等电梯的观众的密集"洗脑"，品牌形象深入人心，主要面向城市上班族，覆盖63个城市。

Elevator TV is usually set on both sides of the elevator door, with high-definition screen, sound and picture combination mode of circular play. Through intensive "brainwashing" of the audience waiting for the elevator, the brand image is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, mainly for urban office workers, covering 63 cities.

电梯海报放置在封闭的电梯空间内，让观众在拍摄过程中对广告有一个有效的记忆，覆盖130个城市。

The elevator poster is placed in a closed elevator space, so that the audience can have an effective memory of the advertisement in the process of taking, covering 130 cities.

在重点运营的电梯媒体中，电视和电梯"三七开"的格局维持了多年。截至2020年底，焦点集团运营的260万台媒体设备中，电梯电视70.7万台（其中自营68.3万台），占27.2%；电梯海报空间169万张，占比72.8%。

In the elevator media of focus operation, the pattern of TV and elevator "three seven open" has been maintained for many years. As of the end of 2020, among the 2.6 million media devices operated by focus group, there are 707000 elevator TVs (of which 683000 are self operated), accounting for 27.2%; Elevator poster space reached 1.69 million, accounting for 72.8%.

2017年，电影传媒给福克斯带来的广告收入达到23亿元，2018年略有增长，达到24亿元；2019年将回落至20亿，占收入的17.2%。

In 2017, the advertising revenue brought by cinema media to focus reached 2.3 billion yuan, and slightly increased to 2.4 billion yuan in 2018; It will fall back to 2 billion in 2019, accounting for 17.2% of the revenue.

2017年，分众大厦媒体总数约175万家，大厦广告收入93.8亿元，平均每页广告收入5350元。

In 2017, the total number of focus building media was about 1.75 million, and the building advertising revenue was 9.38 billion, with an average advertising revenue of 5350 yuan per media page.

2017年，175万建筑媒体中，电梯电视32万台，占比18.2%；电梯海报143.4万台，占比81.8%。

In 2017, of the 1.75 million building media, 320000 were elevator TVs, accounting for 18.2%, and 1.434 million were elevator posters, accounting for 81.8%.

2018

2018

2018年7月，福克斯引入阿里巴巴及其关联方150亿元战略投资，签署合作框架协议。据测算，三年内涉案投资不超过50亿元。

In July 2018, focus introduced 15 billion yuan of strategic investment from Alibaba and its related parties and signed the cooperation framework agreement. It is estimated that the investment involved will not exceed 5 billion yuan within three years.

在此背景下，focus推出了"清理模式"。截至2018年底，楼宇媒体总数增至277万家，楼宇广告收入121亿元，平均每页媒体广告收入4360元。

In this context, focus has launched the "scavenging mode". By the end of 2018, the total number of building media has increased to 2.77 million, and the building advertising revenue is 12.1 billion, with an average advertising revenue of 4360 yuan per media page.

2018年建筑媒体277万台，电梯电视75万台，同比增长135%；电梯海报202万张，同比增长41%。

Among the 2.77 million sets of building media in 2018, 750000 sets of elevator TV, with a year-on-year growth of 135%; 2.02 million elevator posters, a year-on-year increase of 41%.

2018年，电梯电视在媒体资源中的比重由2017年的18%上升至27%。电梯电视收费比电梯海报高很多。按理说，2018年单页广告收入应该高于2017年，但实际情况却减少了18.6%。

In 2018, the proportion of elevator TV in media resources increased from 18% in 2017 to 27%. Elevator TV charges are much higher than elevator posters. It is reasonable to say that the advertising revenue of a single page in 2018 should be higher than that in 2017, but the actual situation is reduced by 18.6%.

2019

2019

2019年，分众楼宇媒体总量将降至263万台，楼宇广告收入将降至100亿元，平均每页媒体广告收入为3830元。

In 2019, the total number of focus building media will drop to 2.63 million units, and the advertising revenue of buildings will drop to 10 billion yuan, with an average advertising revenue of 3830 yuan per media page.

2019年电梯电视在媒体资源中的比重将从2018年的27%提高到28%，单页广告收入将下降12.2%。

In 2019, the proportion of elevator TV in media resources will increase from 27% in 2018 to 28%, while the advertising revenue of single page will decrease by 12.2%.

2020

2020

2020年，分众建筑传媒总量将小幅下降至260万台，建筑广告收入将达到116亿元。每个媒体页面的平均广告收入将上升到4460元。

In 2020, the total number of focus building media will drop slightly to 2.6 million units, and the building advertising revenue will reach 11.6 billion yuan. The average advertising revenue of each media page will rise to 4460 yuan.

2020年电梯电视在媒体资源中的比重为27.2%，比2018年提高0.2个百分点，单页广告收入比2018年提高2.4%，剔除通胀因素，勉强持平。

In 2020, the proportion of elevator TV in media resources will be 27.2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in 2018, and the advertising revenue of a single page will be 2.4% higher than that in 2018. Excluding inflation, it will be barely flat.

我原以为广告商尝到甜头会慷慨解囊，但降价容易，提价难。然而，租金、折旧、电耗、人工和运维成本是"刚性"的，"利润率"是不可持续的。

I thought the advertiser would give generously when he tasted the sweetness, but it was easy to reduce the price but difficult to raise it. However, rent, depreciation, power consumption, labor and operation and maintenance costs are "rigid" and "profit yield" is unsustainable.

福克斯被迫缩小了战线。到2020年底，建筑资源总量260万套，比2018年底下降6.4%，单位资源广告收入与2018年基本持平。

Focus was forced to shrink its front. By the end of 2020, the total number of building resources was 2.6 million units, which was 6.4% lower than that of the end of 2018, and the advertising revenue of unit resources was barely equal to that of 2018.

2021年第一季度，受疫情影响，收入下降了26%，仅为2018年第一季度的65%。

In Q1 of 2021, revenue dropped by 26% under the impact of the epidemic, only 65% of that in Q1 of 2018.

回过头来看，2018年前后，建筑广告市场正接近天花板。但那时候，芬中并不觉得只要有钱有合伙人，就可以上更高的台阶。

Looking back, around 2018, the building advertising market is approaching the ceiling. But in those days, Fenzhong didn't feel that as long as they had money and partners, they could go to a higher level.

在阿里的帮助下，分众传媒实现了一个梦想。现在它只能清理情绪，重新开始。

With the help of Ali, focus media had a dream. Now it can only clean up its mood and start again.

有"韵味"的优秀股

Outstanding stocks with "lingering charm"

1） 因势利导

1) Act according to circumstances

重点成本主要是：媒体租赁成本、员工薪酬、设备折旧。

The main cost of focus is: media rental cost, employee compensation, equipment depreciation.

2018年和2020年，媒体租赁成本分别为35亿和30亿，占当年收入的24%。

In 2018 and 2020, the media rental costs were 3.5 billion and 3 billion respectively, accounting for 24% of the revenue of that year.

2019年年报称："2018年二季度以来，为实现中长期战略目标，公司大幅拓展电梯电视和电梯海报媒体资源。"。

"Since the second quarter of 2018, in order to achieve the medium and long-term strategic objectives, the company has substantially expanded its elevator TV and elevator poster media resources," the 2019 annual report said.

2018年大幅扩张的负面效应体现在2019年——租赁成本达到47亿，同比增长32.7%，占今年收入的38.7%。其中，楼宇媒体租赁成本增长46.7%，影院媒体租赁成本增长7.8%。

The negative effect of the radical expansion in 2018 is reflected in 2019 - the rental cost reaches 4.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 32.7%, accounting for 38.7% of the revenue this year. Among them, the rental cost of building media increased by 46.7%, and that of cinema media increased by 7.8%.

2019年，职工薪酬也达到8830万元的峰值，占收入的7.3%，比2018年高出3.2个百分点。

In 2019, the employee compensation also reached a peak of 88.3 million yuan, accounting for 7.3% of the revenue, 3.2 percentage points higher than that in 2018.

在2019年的疯狂扩张中，收入不增反降16.6%，成本上升35.3%（含建房业务成本上升45.3%），毛利下降43.1%，毛利率骤降至45.2%，较2018年大幅下降21个百分点！

In the frenzied expansion of 2019, the revenue did not increase but decreased by 16.6%, the cost increased by 35.3% (including the cost of building business increased by 45.3%), the gross profit decreased by 43.1%, and the gross profit margin plummeted to 45.2%, a sharp drop of 21 percentage points compared with 2018!

幸好公众会因势利导，否则2020年疫情造成的损失会更大，复苏不会这么快。

Fortunately, the public will act according to the circumstances, otherwise the losses caused by the epidemic in 2020 will be greater and the recovery will not be so fast.

分众传媒尚未恢复。2017年，建筑业务和影院业务毛利率分别为76.7%和57.6%；2019年的低点分别为47.8%和33.7%；2020年将分别恢复到64.1%和37.8%，与"大跃进"前的2017年相去甚远#

Focus media has not recovered. In 2017, the gross profit margins of building business and cinema business were 76.7% and 57.6% respectively; The lows in 2019 are 47.8% and 33.7% respectively; It will recover to 64.1% and 37.8% respectively in 2020, which is far from 2017 before the "great leap forward"# I can't go back#

2） 保持蓝筹股风格

2) Maintain the style of blue chip stocks

蓝线表示毛利（率），彩色叠加列表示销售费用（率）和管理费用（率）。当蓝色"淹没"了颜色，公司将获得经营利润。

The blue line represents gross profit (rate), and the color stacked column represents sales expense (rate) and management expense (rate). When the blue color "drowns" the color, the company will make operating profit.

2018年实现毛利96亿元，销售费用和管理费用合计27.4亿元；毛利率为66.2%，两项费用占总收入的18.9%。净利润57.9亿元，净利润率39.8%。

In 2018, the gross profit reached 9.6 billion yuan, and the total sales expenses and management expenses reached 2.74 billion yuan; The gross profit margin was 66.2%, and the two expenses accounted for 18.9% of the total revenue. The net profit was 5.79 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 39.8%.

2019年，毛利润降至55亿，销售费用和管理费用总额达到28.2亿；毛利率为45.2%，两项费用占总收入的23.3%。实现净利润18.6亿元，净利润率15.3%。

In 2019, the gross profit will drop to 5.5 billion, and the total sales expenses and management expenses will reach 2.82 billion; The gross profit margin was 45.2%, and the two expenses accounted for 23.3% of the total revenue. The net profit dropped sharply to 1.86 billion, with a net profit margin of 15.3%.

2020年，实现毛利77亿元，销售费用和管理费用合计28.3亿元；毛利率为63.2%，两项费用占总收入的23.4%。净利润和净利润率分别上升至40亿元和33.1%。

In 2020, the gross profit will rise to 7.7 billion yuan, and the total sales expenses and management expenses will reach 2.83 billion yuan; The gross profit margin was 63.2%, and the two expenses accounted for 23.4% of the total revenue. Net profit and net profit margin rose to 4 billion yuan and 33.1% respectively.

在最"不靠谱"的2019年，我们依然保持蓝筹股的风格，这说明福克斯的成本费用控制能力较强。

In the most "unreliable" year of 2019, we still maintain the style of blue chip stocks, which shows that focus's cost and expense control ability is strong.

第三，洗脑太刻意。

Third, brainwashing is too deliberate.

没有人能逃避被洗脑，也没有人愿意被洗脑。萧洪枢、智湖、辛亥耐心从事"内容营销"。用户不会讨厌被"栽赃"。而"婚纱照，去哪儿拍"这种"噪音洗脑"、"高频刺激"，收获的人气不等于美誉度。

No one can escape being brainwashed, and no one wants to be brainwashed. Xiaohongshu, Zhihu and Xinxi patiently engage in "content marketing". Users will not resent being "planted". And "wedding photos, where to shoot" this kind of "noise brainwashing", "high-frequency stimulation", the harvest of popularity is not equal to reputation.

还有上述"特制拖把"的广告。这样的广告环境不利于吸引和留住"高大"的广告主，也透支了明星的"无形资产"。

There is also the above-mentioned advertisement of "specially making mops". Such an advertising environment is not conducive to attracting and retaining "tall" advertisers, but also overdrawn the "intangible assets" of stars.

效果广告和内容营销逐渐成为主流，媒体只是特定阶段一些广告主的选择。如果有一天，一个婚纱照品牌想成为"高端"，它应该选择其他的方式。

Effect advertising and content marketing have gradually become the mainstream, and media is only the choice of some advertisers at a specific stage. If one day, a wedding photo brand wants to be "high-end", it should choose other ways.

分众传媒的实践证明，我国300多个大城市的分众传媒市场规模在100亿以上，基本不存在"爆发"的可能。

The practice of focus media has proved that the market of focus media in more than 300 major cities in China is more than 10 billion, and there is basically no possibility of "outbreak".

无论是近40倍的市盈率还是12倍以上的市场销售率，分众传媒都被高估了。

No matter the price earnings ratio of nearly 40 times or the market sales ratio of more than 12 times, focus media has been overestimated.

（本文数据由老虎嗅探员荣晓晨收集）

(the data in this paper are collected by Rong Xiaochen, a tiger sniffer)

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210531/20210531A01TBD00.html

update time：2021-05-31 18:56:41