Can't sell mobile phones without Huawei?

艾金融学会吴迪牛耕

AI Financial Society Wu Di Niu Geng

编辑：赵艳秋

Editor: Zhao Yanqiu

赵舍的手机是中国移动两年前购买的旗舰手机。当时的价格是5000多元。虽然这台机器仍然运行平稳，像新的一样好，但64g的内存已经捉襟见肘。今年1月，这家制造商发布了最新的旗舰飞机。赵舍从床上爬起来，开始寻找配置。

Zhao she's mobile phone was a flagship mobile phone bought by China Mobile two years ago. At that time, the price was more than 5000 yuan. Although the machine is still running smoothly and as good as new, 64g of memory has been stretched. In January this year, the manufacturer released its latest flagship aircraft. Zhao she crawled out of the bed and began to search for configuration.

但今年的手机让他失望了：低配置旗舰机的配置比去年落后。屏幕由3200*1400像素减少到2400*1080像素，内存由12g减少到8g，景深摄像头减少，取消了招牌的弧形屏幕、金属框和玻璃后盖。他受不了异形屏幕，期待这一代手机能实现屏幕下的摄像头，但事实并非如此。

But this year's mobile phone let him down: the configuration of low configuration flagship machine is backward than last year. The screen is reduced from 3200 * 1400 pixels to 2400 * 1080 pixels, the memory is reduced from 12g to 8g, a depth of field camera is reduced, and the curved screen, metal frame and glass back cover of the signboard are eliminated. He couldn't stand the special-shaped screen, and expected this generation of mobile phones to realize the camera under the screen, but it didn't.

在配置倒退的情况下，今年新款手机的价格涨到了7000多元"我在网上说最好买2020款。"但赵舍认为，去年手机的进步与三年前相比太小了。纠结之后，他决定将照片导入电脑，卸载几个很少使用的应用程序，继续做"观望"。

In the case of configuration retrogression, the price of this year's new mobile phone rose to more than 7000 yuan" I said on the Internet that it's better to buy a 2020 model. " But Zhao she thinks that the progress of last year's mobile phone is too small compared with that of three years ago. After the tangle, he decided to import the photos into the computer, unload several rarely used apps, and continue to do "wait and see".

像赵舍这样不愿意花钱买新手机的消费者并不少见。多位手机行业人士向AI金融社分析：今年手机厂商普遍不知道要用什么新功能来吸引消费者"软硬件都没有大的突破，包括近两年的折叠式屏幕，这在实践中并不是特别有吸引力。"

It's not uncommon for consumers like Zhao she to be reluctant to pay for a new mobile phone. A number of people in the mobile phone industry analyzed to AI Financial Society: this year, mobile phone manufacturers generally don't know what new functions to use to attract consumers" There is no big breakthrough in both hardware and software, including the folding screen in the past two years, which is not particularly attractive in practice. "

一位经销商表示："即便是华为mate系列，近几年的弧形屏幕和摄像头与Yuba类似，也未能让消费者有换机的冲动。"

"Even the Huawei mate series, with curved screens and cameras similar to Yuba in recent years, has failed to make consumers have the impulse to change their machines," one dealer said

从数据中我们也可以看到手机销售的停滞。今年4月至5月，手机出货量连续两个月降幅超过三成，4月销量减少1424万台，5月销量减少1080万台。

We can also see the stagnation of mobile phone sales from the data. From April to May this year, the mobile phone shipment volume dropped by more than 30% for two consecutive months, with 14.24 million units sold less in April and 10.8 million units sold less in May.

手机卖不出去吗？

Can't the mobile phone be sold?

手机"震撼年"

Mobile phone "shock year"

在国内手机市场连续两个月"暴跌"之后，业内传来反转消息：6月份，智能手机销量连续三周增长。这似乎让手机企业和供应链长舒一口气。

After two consecutive months of "plummeting" in the domestic mobile phone market, the industry came the news of a reversal: in June, the sales of smart phones had increased for three consecutive weeks. This seems to give mobile phone companies and supply chains a long sigh of relief.

一位知名市场机构的分析总监也对艾金融通讯社表示："今年4月和5月的下跌并没有影响我们对全年的预测。我们认为，与去年相比，今年中国市场将略有上升。"事实上，多家知名机构最近都预测，今年国内手机市场将继续保持5%-16%的增长。

An analysis director of a well-known market organization also told AI financial news agency: "the decline in April and may this year has not affected our forecast for the whole year. We think the Chinese market will rise slightly this year compared with last year. " In fact, a number of well-known institutions have recently predicted that the domestic mobile phone market will continue to grow by 5% - 16% this year.

然而，一些始终站在一线的经销商却持不同意见。

However, some dealers who are always on the front line hold different opinions.

"整个市场正处于震荡期。"网商戴军对最近的一些市场行为感到无奈和可笑6月份的很多成绩都是靠卖鸡血（大券）的平台和黄牛党用券牟利取得的。"

"The whole is in a period of shock." Dai Jun, an online dealer, felt helpless and ridiculous about some recent market behaviors. "A lot of the achievements in June were made by platforms selling chicken blood (large coupons) and scalpers using coupons to make profits."

图片/视觉中国

Picture / visual China

他估计，"618"活动中门店的实际销量可能会增加300%-500%，但如果超过这个比例，基本属于异常订单。他亲自发现，618当天，某品牌的一款价格低于1000元的低端机在某平台店一天内就卖出了6000多台，同样销量的门店至少有3-4家。戴军问："你觉得会有多少真正的客户？"平台设置的优惠券一部手机能赚30元，然后这些商品全部流向二级市场。

He estimated that the real sales volume of the stores in the "618" activity may increase by 300% - 500%, but if it exceeds this proportion, it basically belongs to abnormal orders. He personally found that on the day of 618, a low-end machine of a brand with a price of less than 1000 yuan sold more than 6000 units in one day in a platform store, and there were at least 3-4 stores with the same sales volume. Dai Jun asked: "how many real customers do you think there will be?" Platform set coupons a mobile phone can earn 30 yuan, and then all these goods flow to the secondary market.

"今年上半年的销售不好，除非你是在这种非正式的交易模式下。"戴军吐槽抱怨他自己的店的经营，说他"吃不饱，维持输血勉强够用"。

"The sales in the first half of this year are not good, unless you are in this informal trading mode." Dai Jun Tucao make complaints about his own store's operation, saying that he is "unable to eat enough to eat, and to maintain blood transfusion barely enough".

线下手机经销商四川龙翔通信总经理叶秀江对今年没有太大的期望，尽管只有过半的时间。叶秀江告诉艾金融通讯社记者，二季度公司各门店的手机销量整体下滑"还是比较严重的""与去年相比，我们同店的销量基本下降了20%。"

Ye Xiujiang, general manager of Sichuan Longxiang communications, an offline mobile phone dealer, has no great expectations for this year, even though it's just over half the time. Ye Xiujiang told AI financial news agency that the overall decline of mobile phone sales in the company's stores in the second quarter was "still relatively serious"" Compared with last year, the sales volume of our same stores has basically decreased by 20%. "

二季度是手机销售淡季，但今年的下滑幅度仍超出了老经销商的预期。作为中国的一家老手机零售商，四川龙翔通讯拥有260多家分店。

The second quarter is the off-season of mobile phone sales, but this year's decline is still beyond the old distributor's expectation. As an old mobile phone retailer in China, Sichuan Longxiang communication owns more than 260 stores.

和很多人一样，叶秀江对今年的手机市场也抱有很高的期望。去年，受疫情影响，经过一轮"剪店"调整后，他预计经济将大幅复苏。

Like many people, ye Xiujiang had high expectations for this year's mobile phone market. Last year, after a round of "store cutting" adjustment under the influence of the epidemic, he expected a big recovery.

市场起初没有达到他们的预期。第一季度的销售情况非常好。国内手机销量达到9.24万部，同比增长24%，甚至超过疫情前的水平。随着需求的反弹，经销商开了个好头。然而，市场的"转向"让不少人始料未及，后劲不足的问题迅速出现。4月和5月销售的突然下降是明显的。

The market didn't live up to their expectations at first. The sales situation in the first quarter was very good. The domestic mobile phone sales reached 92.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24%, even exceeding the level before the epidemic. Dealers have made a good start with the rebound of demand. However, the "turn" of the market made many people unexpected, and the problem of insufficient stamina quickly appeared. The sudden decline of sales in April and may was obvious.

从2020年下半年开始，戴军参加国内厂商的渠道会议。他听到的是2021年市场的高预期，一方面是5g转型的规模需求，另一方面是冲高端的机会。所有国产品牌都在准备抢占华为的市场。

From the second half of 2020, Dai Jun went to attend the channel meeting of domestic manufacturers. What he heard was the high expectation of the market in 2021. On the one hand, it was the scale demand of 5g transformation, on the other hand, it was the opportunity to rush to the high end. All domestic brands have been preparing to seize Huawei's market.

时隔半年，戴军的判断变成了"今年的行情肯定会比往年略有下滑"。他把今年的经营目标定得很低，不敢想赚钱，"希望是平的。"

Now, half a year later, Dai Jun's judgment has become "this year's market will definitely decline slightly compared with previous years.". He set this year's business goals very low, dare not think about making money, "I hope it's even."

叶秀江将今年国内手机市场定义为"预期的销售大年和需求小年"。这也构成了今年国内手机市场的大背景。

Ye Xiujiang defines this year's domestic mobile phone market as "the expected big year of sales and the small year of demand". This also constitutes the background of this year's domestic mobile phone market.

他对今年市场的预测也达到了最低水平："目前，只要不降20%或30%，我们基本上可以生存。"

His prediction of this year's market has also reached the lowest level: "at present, as long as it does not reduce by 20% or 30%, we can basically survive."

荣耀CEO赵铭近日被媒体问及近期国内手机市场销量下滑的情况。在他看来，今年是"风沙淘金"的一年。他感叹，很多浮躁肤浅的事情影响了大家的判断，"市场上的各种诱惑让我们有了各种各样的战略预测和预期，但事实上，结果可能恰恰相反或出人意料。"

Zhao Ming, CEO of glory, was recently asked by the media about the recent sales decline in the domestic mobile phone market. In his opinion, this year is a year of "blowing all the wild sand to gold". He sighed that many impetuous and superficial things affected everyone's judgment" All kinds of temptations in the market make us have all kinds of strategic predictions and expectations, but in fact, the results may be opposite or surprising. "

换言之，"后华为时代"的手机市场很容易被误判。从城市边缘到一线，从机构到经销商，业界对下半年手机市场的走势有着不同的声音和分歧，这预示着今年的震荡行情或将持续。

In other words, the mobile phone market in the "post Huawei era" is easily misjudged. From the edge of the city to the front line, from institutions to dealers, the industry has different voices and differences on the trend of the mobile phone market in the second half of the year, which indicates that this year's volatile market may continue.

华为的"退出"打乱了原有的节奏

Huawei's "exit" disrupts the original rhythm

在手机震荡年的形势下，oppo原副总裁沈义仁6月19日发出微博称："听说今年'几个品牌'和'几个型号'都怕零部件短缺，所以很难下订单和库存，导致现在库存很大。如果流量不好的话，618今年的降价会很厉害，'双11'可能也会很厉害，'等一等'族今年可能还是会赢。"

Under the situation of mobile phone shock year, Shen Yiren, former vice president of oppo, sent out a microblog on June 19, saying: "I heard that" several brands "and" several models "are afraid of the shortage of components this year, so it's hard to place an order and stock them, resulting in a lot of inventory now. If the flow rate is not good, the 618 will have a fierce price cut this year, and the "double 11" may also be very fierce, and the "wait and wait" clan may still win this year. "

沈义仁随后指出，这些品牌为何"一边喊缺货，一边促销"，这也导致了手机行业可能利用虚假炒作的嫌疑。

Shen Yiren then pointed out why these brands are "calling for shortage while promoting sales", which also leads to the suspicion that the mobile phone industry may use false hype.

"业内人士早就知道，芯片的整体供应量并不缺国内市场。只是说一些厂家囤货，一有货就收货，这就人为地制造了芯片短缺的氛围，"这也人为地制造了手机产品热销的假象。戴军说，当厂家在"火爆"的情况下降价促销时，他们的目标也非常明确，即利用价格营销抢占市场份额。

"The circle has known for a long time that the overall supply of chips is not short for the domestic market. It just says that some manufacturers hoard goods and collect as soon as they have, which artificially creates an atmosphere of chip shortage." This also artificially creates the illusion that mobile phone products are in hot demand. Dai Jun said that when manufacturers cut prices and promote sales in the "hot" situation, their goal is also very clear, that is, to use price marketing to seize market share.

曾任高级手机产品经理的刘伟，就沈义仁提到的手机库存，向AI金融社做了进一步的分析。他表示：去年华为芯片被封杀后，其他厂商纷纷抢占他们放弃的市场份额，"从去年第四季度开始，华为已经从2亿下降到1亿，给了1亿的市场空间。但小米、oppo和维梧都宣布计划扩大产量约1亿台，合计订单约2亿台。"他说，在1亿市场上，总共准备了2亿件商品，所以我们必须想办法消化它们。

Liu Wei, a former senior mobile phone product manager, made a further analysis of AI Financial Society on the mobile phone inventory mentioned by Shen Yiren. He said: after Huawei chips were blocked last year, other manufacturers were seizing the market share they gave up" Since Q4 last year, Huawei has dropped from 200 million to 100 million, giving 100 million market space. But Xiaomi, oppo and vivo all announced plans to expand production by around 100 million units, adding up orders of around 200 million units. " He said that a total of 200 million goods have been prepared in the 100 million market, so we have to find a way to digest them.

与供应充足相反，需求却处于低迷状态"去年四五月份，5g手机相继入市，掀起了一轮换机潮"刘伟强调，去年换过手机的用户今年不会马上换。现在手机做得很好，内存是8g。没有必要在两三年内更换。

On the contrary of sufficient supply, demand is in a slump" In April and may of last year, 5g mobile phones came into the market one after another, which has set off a wave of machine change. " Liu Wei stressed that users who changed their mobile phones last year will not change them immediately this year. Now the mobile phone is well made, and the memory is 8g. There is no need to replace it in two or three years.

"原来市场供过于求，今年的供需关系应该是分开的，要根据具体的品牌来划分。"戴军告诉艾金融通讯社记者，今年的供需错位，归根结底是国内其他厂商没能真正占领华为的高端份额。

"The original market is oversupply, this year's supply and demand relationship should be separated, according to the specific brand." Dai Jun told AI financial news agency that this year's supply and demand dislocation, in the final analysis, is that other domestic manufacturers failed to really capture Huawei's high-end share.

"高端产品的影响力还不够强，因为近年来高端用户数量增加，但整体的增长速度并没有各厂商新推出的高端产品数量那么高，"他观察到，用户群里有那么多产品'大家的注意力都集中在中高端，中高端一下子就淤塞了'。"

"The impact of high-end products is not strong enough, because the number of high-end users has increased in recent years, but the overall increase rate is not as high as the number of new high-end products from various manufacturers." He observed that there are so many products in the user group" Everyone's attention is on the middle and high end, and the middle and high end are silted up all of a sudden. "

图片/视觉中国

Picture / visual China

华为在南方的大经销商田文深有感触，华为P和mate系列的老用户不断推迟换代计划，"他们想换一个新的，但如果不想用苹果，他们别无选择。他们宁愿不要

Tian Wen, a big distributor of Huawei in the south, has a deep perception that the old users of Huawei P and mate series are constantly delaying the replacement plan" They want to get a new one, but if they don't want to use apple, they have no choice. They'd rather not

他的华为门店服务数据显示，华为手机维修量在增加，保修数量在减少。这表明，华为高端电脑的许多用户正在成为"钉子户"。在不久前发布的《鸿蒙》中，华为于成东还宣布，将以几十元的价格为华为用户提供电池更换服务，尽可能延长老用户使用华为手机的时间。

His Huawei store service data shows that the number of Huawei mobile phone repairs is increasing and the number of warranty is decreasing. This shows that many users of Huawei's high-end computers are becoming "nail households". In the recent Hongmeng release, Huawei Yu Chengdong also announced that he would provide Huawei users with battery replacement service at a price of dozens of yuan, so as to extend the time for old users to use Huawei mobile phones as much as possible.

据田文估计，苹果已经成为华为衰落的最大受益者，至少占到40%的份额。小米ov占据了20%-25%的份额，其余的都是推迟换人的。他认为，华为的品牌认同度还是很高的。

According to Tian Wen's estimation, Apple has become the biggest beneficiary of Huawei's decline, taking at least 40% of the share. Xiaomi ov has taken 20% - 25% of the share, and the rest are those who delay the replacement. He believes that Huawei's brand identity is still very high.

戴军告诉艾金融通讯社，他的很多朋友还在找他买mate 40 pro。"最近，有消息称，华为P50正在筹备上市。

Dai Jun told AI financial news agency that many of his friends are still looking for him to buy mate 40 pro. "I've helped about ten people in the last two months." Recently, it has been revealed that Huawei P50 is in the process of preparing for listing.

"消费者的品牌意识根深蒂固。"多位分析师对AI金融协会表示。今年，snapdragon 888推出了多款高端车型，但对高端用户的拉动仍然不明显。

"Consumers' brand awareness is deeply rooted." A number of analysts said to AI financial society. This year, a number of high-end models of snapdragon 888 have been launched, but the pull to high-end users is still not obvious.

以此类推，家族和钉子户都是赢家

And so on, clans and nail households are winners

华为事件正好与"后智能手机时代"重叠。随着智能手机10多年的发展，技术滞胀与消费者欲望之间的矛盾越来越明显。今年以来，越来越多的人加入了"等一等"、"钉子户"的大潮。出现在上面的赵舍是"等待与等待"的一员。他们的声音已经逐渐超越了过去流行的"切换器"，成为今年手机震荡的一大因素。

The Huawei incident just overlaps the "post smartphone era". With the development of smart phones for more than 10 years, the contradiction between technological stagflation and consumer desire has become more and more obvious. Since this year, more and more people have joined the tide of "wait and wait" and "nail households". Zhao she, who appeared above, is a member of "wait and wait". Their voice has gradually surpassed the fashionable "switchers" in the past, which has become a major factor in this year's mobile phone shock.

今年6月18日，甚至出现了一幕奇观：4G手机iPhone11降价千元，销量超过5g手机iPhone12，成为单日销量冠军。在豆瓣"买手机是件大事"团购网的一篇帖子中，对换新苹果犹豫不决，最受好评的是团长的一句话："等一下，你永远不会是奴隶。"

On June 18 of this year, there was even a spectacle: the price of 4G mobile phone iPhone 11 dropped by 1000 yuan, and its sales exceeded that of 5g mobile phone iPhone 12, becoming the single day sales champion. In a post of Douban's "buying a mobile phone is a big deal" group, which hesitated to change to a new apple, the highest praise was the group leader's comment: "wait a minute, you will never be a slave."

这不应该发生在iPhone上，因为iphone12是第一款支持5g的iPhone。然而，在第一波5g消费者尝到了甜头后，不少买家却觉得5g对手机来说不是优势，而是缺陷：不仅价格更高、耗电更大，而且网络不稳定，与4G相比没有新的体验。

This shouldn't have happened on the iPhone, because the iPhone 12 is the first iPhone to support 5g. However, after the first wave of 5g consumers had a taste, many buyers felt that 5g was not an advantage for mobile phones, but a defect: it was not only more expensive and power consuming, but also unstable network, and had no new experience compared with 4G.

图片/视觉中国

Picture / visual China

一家知名研究机构的无线业务总监告诉AI金融机构，他甚至没有换5g手机，只是换了5g流量套餐。5g应用不足是他拒绝换机的原因"我们去韩国做研究。VR/AR在5g网络中的应用非常好，但在4G网络中却不能应用。这是一个杀手级的应用程序。但我国5g应用发展滞后。"

A wireless business director in a well-known research institute told AI financial agency that he didn't even change his 5g mobile phone, only changed his 5g traffic package. The lack of 5g application is the reason why he refused to change the machine" We went to Korea to do research. VR / AR application is very good in 5g network, but it can't be used in 4G network. It's a killer application. But the development of 5g application in China lags behind. "

他表示，在过去3G、4G转型的时代，运营商会主动推广入门级廉价手机。但在5g时代，他们调整了终端补贴政策，为手机销量的下滑火上浇油。叶秀江进一步解释说："2G转3G后，消费者只需提前省下少量的钱，就可以免费拿到手机。3G转4G后，在补贴高的地方购买手机可以享受五折优惠。但说到4G到5g，运营商的终端补贴条件非常苛刻，需要你升级。比如，过去每月的消费是165元，现在是200多元。用户不会在计算帐户后立即转账。"

He said that in the past era of 3G and 4G transformation, operators would take the initiative to promote entry-level cheap mobile phones. But in the 5g era, they adjusted the terminal subsidy policy, adding fuel to the decline of mobile phone sales. Ye Xiujiang further explained: "when 2G is converted to 3G, consumers can get their mobile phones free of charge with a small amount of money saved in advance. When 3G is converted to 4G, they can get 50% off when they buy mobile phones in places with high subsidies. But when it comes to 4G to 5g, the terminal subsidy conditions of operators are very harsh, requiring you to upgrade. For example, in the past, the monthly consumption was 165 yuan, but now it is more than 200 yuan. The user does not transfer as soon as he calculates the account. "

如今，手机对消费者的意义已经发生了变化：不再是每年都要更换的时尚玩具，而是耐用品"在我家，手机是家庭传家宝，代代相传"张唐说，他的iphone6s被儿媳淘汰了，而他把以前的iphone5c给公公淘汰了。iphoen6s的电池更换了一次，再次赶上苹果的免费电池更换。

Nowadays, the significance of mobile phones to consumers has changed: it is no longer the fashionable toys that are replaced every year, but durable goods" In my family, cell phones are family heirlooms, handed down from generation to generation. " Zhang Tang said that his iPhone 6S was eliminated by his daughter-in-law, while he eliminated his previous iPhone 5C to his father-in-law. The iphoen 6S had its battery replaced once, catching up with Apple's free battery replacement and once again.

张唐的房东在北京拥有4套公寓，从2018年起，他不会每年更换iPhone，他的一个同事干脆把儿媳的手机给了高中女儿，等她被淘汰后，女儿会给他，"现在我们都有好几部旧手机了。共享功能。这个用来玩游戏，那个用来看书。如果没有坏，就没有必要更换。"张唐说。更重要的是，每年的旗舰价格仍在上涨，造成销售阻力。

Zhang Tang's landlord, who owns four apartments in Beijing, will not replace his iPhone every year since 2018. One of his colleagues simply gave his daughter-in-law's cell phone to her high school daughter, who would give it to him after she was eliminated" Now we all have several old mobile phones. Share the functions. This one is used to play games, and that one is used to read books. If it's not broken, there's no need to replace it. " Zhang Tang said. What's more, every year's flagship price is still rising, causing sales resistance.

"手机市场确实在从增量转向存量。它更像10年前的个人电脑市场。我们不再关注新用户的年度增长，而是关注老用户的更换。"有手机分析师表示，从某种意义上说，创新步伐放缓等等，钉子户成为赢家。

"The mobile phone market is really shifting from increment to stock. It is more like the PC market 10 years ago. We are no longer looking at the annual growth of new users, but the replacement of old users. " Some mobile phone analysts said that the pace of innovation slowed down, in a sense, and so on, and nail households became the winners.

（戴军、刘伟为化名）

(Dai Jun and Liu Wei are pseudonyms.)

这篇文章最初是由《金融世界周刊》的一个账户——AI金融协会撰写的。未经允许，请勿通过任何渠道或平台转载。违者将被起诉。

This article is originally produced by AI financial society, an account of financial world weekly. Please do not reprint it through any channel or platform without permission. Violators will be prosecuted.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210630/20210630A044OR00.html

update time：2021-06-30 18:57:19