Musk MWC's speech: Star chain will make 30 billion US dollars in the next year, which is 10 times of its rocket business

马斯克还表示，由于硬件价格接近1300美元，公司向客户提供卫星天线服务"赔钱"，但SpaceX仅向用户收取499美元的费用，"我们正在开发下一代终端，可以提供相同水平的能力，大致相同水平的能力，但成本要低得多，"他说。

Musk also said the company was "losing money" for its satellite antenna service to its customers because the hardware price was close to $1300, but SpaceX charged users only $499" We are developing the next generation of terminals that can provide the same level of capability, roughly the same level of capability, but at a much lower cost, "he said.

正如SpaceX管理层此前所言，马斯克估计SpaceX可能需要50亿至100亿美元来全面运营星链，然后长期投资高达200亿至300亿美元。但SpaceX相信它可以扩展到更大的市场。据估计，星空链每年可产生高达300亿美元的收入，约为其火箭发射业务年收入的10倍。

As SpaceX management has said before, musk estimates that SpaceX may need $5 billion to $10 billion to fully operate the star chain, and then invest as much as $20 billion to $30 billion in the long term. But SpaceX believes it can expand into a larger market. It is estimated that the star chain can generate as much as $30 billion in revenue a year, about 10 times the annual revenue of its rocket launch business.

"星链目前在大约12个国家运营，而且这个数字每月都在增加，"马斯克说，"我们与主要国家（电信公司）有两个非常重要的合作伙伴关系，我希望现在就宣布，但显然我们会听取我们的合作伙伴的任何宣布。我们正在与其他一些（电信公司）讨论提供星链接入。"。

"The star chain is currently operating in about 12 countries, and the number is increasing every month," Musk said" We have two very important partnerships with major countries (telecommunications companies), and I hope to announce them now, but obviously we listen to our partners to make any announcement. We are in discussions with some other [telecom companies] to provide star link access, "he said.

马斯克还说，SpaceX距离发射下一代卫星链越来越近，"我们正在接近发射1.5号卫星，该卫星具有激光卫星到卫星的连接，将特别用于北极和南极地区的连续连接。明年我们将发射我们的卫星2.0，它的性能将大大提高。"

Musk also said that SpaceX is getting closer to launching the next generation of satellite chain" We are approaching the launch of satellite 1.5, which has a laser satellite to satellite link and will be used especially for continuous connectivity in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Next year we will launch our satellite 2.0, and its performance will be greatly improved. "

以下是马斯克的主旨演讲稿：

The following is the transcript of Musk's keynote speech:

主持人：女士们先生们，大家好！很荣幸今天下午能和你在一起。大家好，在线观看视频！谢谢你加入我们。我叫贾斯汀·斯普林厄姆，在线门户网站mobile world live的出版商。在这次特别的主题演讲中，我将担任主持人。这是一次非常重要的主题演讲，也是我们一直期待的2021年世界移动通信大会的主题演讲。

Host: Ladies and gentlemen, Hello! It's a great honor to be with you this afternoon. Hello, everyone, watching the video online! Thank you for joining us. My name is Justin springham, the publisher of the online portal mobile world live. In this special keynote speech, I will be the host. This is a very important keynote speech, and also a keynote speech that we have been looking forward to during the 2021 world mobile communication conference.

在挑战了许多人认为不可能改变的银行、汽车和航空业的做法之后，是时候邀请埃隆•马斯克（elonmusk）参加今年的世界移动通信大会了。马斯克现在计划在互联网服务行业也这样做。SpaceX凭借自己制造火箭和宇宙飞船的经验，正在发射世界上最先进的宽带互联网系统。现在，请欢迎马斯克先生。

After challenging the practices of the banking, automotive and aviation industries that many consider impossible to transform, it's time to invite Elon Musk to the world mobile communications conference this year. Musk now plans to do the same in the Internet services industry. SpaceX is launching the world's most advanced broadband Internet system with its own experience in making rockets and spaceships. Now, please welcome Mr. musk.

主持人：伊隆，很高兴看到您受到世界移动通信大会的热烈欢迎。首先，我谨代表出席世界移动通信大会的各位，祝大家50岁生日快乐。

Host: Elon, I'm glad to see that you are warmly welcomed by the world mobile communication conference. First of all, I'd like to wish you a happy 50th birthday yesterday on behalf of all those who attended the world mobile communication conference.

马斯克：谢谢。

Musk: Thank you.

主持人：很明显，我们要谈的是SpaceX，还有SpaceX更广泛的目标。在此之前，我想重点谈谈星光链项目。目前，这是一项通过卫星提供全球宽带覆盖的计划。你实际上把这个项目比作在太空重建互联网。你基本上是个工程师。是什么驱使你接受这个新的挑战？

Moderator: obviously, we're going to talk about SpaceX, and SpaceX's broader goals. Before that, I would like to focus on the star chain project. At present, this is a plan to provide global broadband coverage by satellite. You actually compare this project to rebuilding the Internet in space. You are essentially an engineer. What drives you to accept this new challenge?

马斯克：如果目前没有互联网连接，或者互联网连接非常有限或非常昂贵，就需要连接。但是，正如我所说，这些地方没有这种服务。你可以把Starlink看作是一项弥合5g和光纤之间差距的服务，它可以真正达到世界上最困难地区的3%到5%。我确实认为星链是5g和光纤的有益补充。

Musk: where there is no Internet connection at present, or where the Internet connection is very limited or very expensive, it needs to be connected. But, as I said, there is no such service in these places. You can think of Starlink as a service to bridge the gap between 5g and optical fiber, which can really reach 3% to 5% of the most difficult places in the world. I do think the star chain is a useful complement to 5g and fiber.

主持人：您提到很好的互补技术，我们会深入探讨。首先，给我们一个高层次的星链的实际进展概述。到目前为止你做了什么？

Compere: you mentioned very good complementary technology, we will discuss in depth. First, give us a high-level overview of the actual progress of the star chain. What have you done so far?

马斯克：我们出了事故。有1500多颗卫星。有一些有趣的统计数据表明，所有卫星的总功率都超过5兆瓦。所以所有卫星的总太阳能都超过5兆瓦。它实际上是下个月开始的，我应该说差不多是下个月，它们每秒可以输出大约30tb的数据。从8月份开始，我们应该能够在世界各地（除了两极）推出网络服务。正如我所说，它实际上是针对人口稀少的地区。星形链非常适用于低密度到中等密度区域，但不适用于高密度区域。在高密度地区，我们将为非常有限的用户提供服务。它是可操作的。星链服务的活跃用户已经达到6942个，很快就会有几十万用户，12个月内可能超过50万。所以，星链的增长速度非常快。我们不断创新用户终端、卫星、地面站、网关和存在点。

Musk: we've had an accident. There are more than 1500 satellites. There are some interesting statistics that the total power of all satellites is more than 5 megawatts. So the total solar energy of all satellites is more than 5 megawatts. It actually starts next month, I should say almost next month, and they can output about 30tb of data per second. Starting in August, we should be able to launch networking services everywhere in the world except at the two poles. As I said, it's actually targeted at sparsely populated areas. Star chains are very suitable for low to medium density regions, but not for high density regions. In high-density areas, we will serve a very limited user base. It's operational. The number of active users of star chain service has reached 6942, and it will soon have hundreds of thousands of users, which may exceed 500000 within 12 months. So, the growth speed of star chain is very fast. We are constantly innovating user terminals, satellites, ground stations, gateways and presence points.

星链目前在大约12个国家运营，而且这个数字每月都在增加。因此，星链是5g和光纤服务的很好补充。我们与主要国家（电信公司）有两个非常重要的伙伴关系，我希望现在就宣布，但显然，我们听取我们的伙伴的任何宣布。我们正在与其他一些电信公司讨论提供星型链路接入，并使用星型链路在他们的网络中传输数据链路，这将是一种非常有效的方法。

Star chain currently operates in about 12 countries, and the number is increasing every month. Therefore, the star chain is a very good complement to 5g and fiber services. We have two very important partnerships with major countries (telecommunications companies), and I hope to announce them now, but obviously we listen to our partners to make any announcement. We are discussing with some other (telecom companies) to provide star link access, and using star link to transmit data link in their network, which will be a very effective way.

其次，它特别适用于解决与其他卫星通信系统相关的问题。卫星链距离地面约500公里，同步卫星距离地面约3.6万公里。因此，星链系统的延迟与地面光纤和5g类似，我们预计延迟将小于20ms，因此，您仍然可以感觉到星链服务的速度非常快，几乎没有延迟。例如，用户可以在星链系统中玩竞争性游戏。

Secondly, it is especially used to solve the problems relative to other satellite communication systems. The satellite chain is about 500 km from the ground, while the synchronous satellite is about 36000 km from the ground. Therefore, the delay of star link system is similar to that of ground optical fiber and 5g, and we expect that the delay will be less than 20 ms. So, you can still feel the speed of star chain service is very fast, almost no delay. For example, users can play competitive games in the star chain system.

主持人：这是一个非常困难的市场。如果你回顾过去几十年，这个市场充满了失败。早在上世纪90年代，一些试图让卫星宽带服务获得成功的知名公司就已经消失了。你们现在也有很强的竞争对手，比如亚马逊和oneweb。他们都计划启动新的卫星互联网项目。是什么让星链计划与众不同？

Compere: This is a very difficult market. If you look back at the past few decades, this market is full of failures. Back in the 1990s, some well-known companies that tried to make satellite broadband service a success have disappeared. You also have strong competition now, such as Amazon and oneweb. They all plan to launch new satellite Internet projects. What makes star chain project different?

马斯克：几年前，我做了一个关于星链的演讲。有人问我的目标是什么？我当时说我们的目标不是破产。因为正如你提到的，其他所有提供狮子座服务的公司都破产了。现在，他们中的一些人已经走出了破产，但让我们这样说，原来的业主没有受益于这些星座。所以他们中的绝大多数甚至在星座完全部署之前就破产了。一些公司确实走出了破产的阴影。像铱星和OPCOM这样的公司如今表现相当不错，但这与它们原来的所有者无关。

Musk: a few years ago, I gave a talk about the star chain. I was asked what my goal was for the star chain? I said at the time that our goal was not to go bankrupt. Because as you mentioned, all the other companies that provide LEO constellation services have gone bankrupt. Now, some of them have come out of bankruptcy, but let's put it this way, the original owners did not benefit from these constellations. So the vast majority of them went bankrupt even before the constellation was fully deployed. Some companies did come out of bankruptcy. Companies like iridium and OPCOM are doing quite well today, but it has nothing to do with their original owners.

所以第一步是不要破产。如果我们不破产，这将是伟大的，我们将向前迈进。我真的觉得从技术的角度来说，卫星链和以前的卫星互联网服务有很大的不同。我们在星链上部署的技术非常先进。具有讽刺意味的是，天基技术经常发生的情况是，地面上存在的往往是旧技术。公司通常非常保守，所以他们说我们希望这项技术在地面得到验证，我们必须对它进行四年的测试，以确保它能在真空和辐射负荷更高的太空中工作。因此，通常被送入轨道的技术是一项较老的技术。

So the first step is not to go bankrupt. If we don't go bankrupt, it will be great and we will move forward. I really think from a technical point of view, the satellite chain is very different from the previous Satellite Internet services. The technology we deploy in the star chain is very advanced. Ironically, what often happens with space-based technology is that it's often old technology that exists on the ground. Companies are usually very conservative, so they say that we want the technology to be validated on the ground, and we have to test it for four years to make sure it can work in space with higher vacuum and radiation loads. Therefore, the technology that is usually launched into orbit is an older technology.

我们一直在采取不同的做法，我们将使用比实地更先进的技术。我们只是想试一试。因此，我们拥有最先进的技术。据我们所知，没有人拥有这项技术，即使是在军事层面。这对于快速移动的后方星座来说非常重要，因为作为用户终端的终端也是相控阵。这些工具上的终端和卫星上的天线是相控阵的。因此，您可以快速地从一个移动卫星切换到另一个。所有这些都将在毫秒内完成。所以你不会发现服务正在从一个卫星转移到另一个卫星。在卫星间链路业务的转换中，用户不会发现数据延迟的问题。

We have been taking a different approach, and we will use more advanced technology than on the ground. We just want to have a try. Therefore, we have the most advanced technology. As far as we know, no one has this technology, not even at the military level. This is very important for the fast-moving rear constellation, because the terminal as the user terminal is also phase array. The terminals on these tools and the antennas on the satellites are phased array. So you can quickly switch from one mobile satellite to another. All of this will be done in milliseconds. So you won't find that service is shifting from one satellite to another. In the conversion of satellite link service between satellites, users will not find the problem of data delay.

卫星可以覆盖地面上许多不同的移动电话点。这是一个数字相控阵系统。因为它是数字化的，我们可以继续导入程序并重新编程以提高效率。我们使用的是世界上最先进的相位速率系统，非常酷。

A satellite can cover many different mobile phone points on the ground. This is a digital phased array system. Because it is digital, we can continue to import programs and reprogram the system to improve efficiency. We're using the most advanced phase rate system in the world, which is pretty cool.

我们还有先进的发射系统，成功率很高。我相信SpaceX去年将大约三分之二的有效载荷送入轨道；今年我们有可能交付接近80%的有效载荷。在剩余的20%有效载荷中，中国将占12%左右，其他国家占8%。

We also have advanced launch system, which has a high success rate. I believe SpaceX put about two-thirds of its payload into orbit last year; This year we are likely to deliver close to 80% of the payload. Of the remaining 20% payload, China will account for about 12% and other countries for the remaining 8%.

"猎鹰9号"火箭采用可重复使用的助推器，整流罩可重复使用，因此将卫星送入轨道的成本也空前低廉。当然，学习如何建造这些先进的卫星以及如何为卫星和网关建造如此多的用户终端是一种相当冒险的经历。例如，这些卫星使用SpaceX公司开发的氪洞效应推进器，或者基本上发射高速氪离子。真的很酷。超人，小心我们的卫星。离他们远点！

The falcon-9 rocket uses reusable booster, and the fairing is reusable, so the cost of launching satellites into orbit is also unprecedented low. Of course, learning how to build these advanced satellites and how to build so many user terminals for satellites and gateways is a rather risky experience. For example, these satellites use the krypton hole effect thruster developed by SpaceX, or basically emit high-speed krypton ions. It's really cool. Superman, watch out for our satellites. Stay away from them!

总的来说，我们的卫星非常聪明。我们即将发射卫星1.5，它有一个激光卫星到卫星的连接，将特别用于北极和南极地区的连续连接。明年我们将发射我们的卫星2.0，它的性能将大大提高。未来，即使大量网民瘫痪，星链用户仍能正常使用互联网服务。我对它的未来非常兴奋。我们很有信心，看起来很积极。正如我所说，星通将是各大电信公司光纤和5g服务的天然补充。

Overall, our satellites are very smart. We are approaching the launch of satellite 1.5, which has a laser satellite to satellite link and will be used especially for continuous connectivity in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Next year we will launch our satellite 2.0, and its performance will be greatly improved. In the future, even if a large number of Internet users are paralyzed, star chain users will still be able to use Internet services normally. I'm very excited about its future. We're confident, it looks positive. As I said, star link will be a natural complement to fiber and 5g services of major telecom companies.

主持人：你在星链项目上投了多少钱，打算投多少钱？

Host: how much money have you invested in the star chain project and how much money are you going to invest?

马斯克：我认为这尤其取决于你如何计算你的投资。投资应该包括猎鹰9号和我们在那里做的一切吗？要实现正现金流，至少需要50亿至100亿美元。太过分了。你可能会说，在获得正现金流之后，我们要投资多少钱？因为随着科技的不断发展，我们需要继续投资低成本的地球静止卫星。地球同步卫星通常可以预留很大的面积，但是它们预留的总带宽不是很大，时延也很高，但是我们仍然需要能够以与GTO卫星组网相同或更低的价格提供服务。

Musk: I think it depends especially on how you calculate your investment. Should investment include Falcon 9 and everything we do there? For us to achieve positive cash flow, it may take at least $5 billion to $10 billion. That's a bit too much. You might say, after achieving positive cash flow, how much money do we have to invest? Because with the continuous development of technology, we need to continue to invest in low-cost geostationary satellites. Geosynchronous satellites can usually reserve a large area, but the total bandwidth they reserve is not very large, and the delay is also very high, but we still need to be able to provide services at the same or lower price as GTO satellite networking.

因此，对明星连锁服务的投资可能至少需要50亿至100亿美元。随着时间的推移，我们对星链的投资可能会达到200亿至300亿美元。

Therefore, investment in star chain services may need at least $5 billion to $10 billion. Over time, our investment in the star chain may reach US $20 billion to US $30 billion.

主持人：这确实是一大笔钱。为了吸引投资，你显然需要客户和订户。例如，如果我想使用星链服务，我需要投资大约500美元，其他用户需要支付多少？

Compere: This is really a large amount of money. To attract investment, you obviously need customers and subscribers. For example, if I want to use the star chain service, I need to invest about $500. How much do other subscribers need to pay?

马斯克：是的，目前我们收费大约500美元。收费标准在世界上基本相同。只会因税率及汇率的变动而稍作调整。我想告诉你的是，我们在亏本销售终端。我们每个终端的成本超过1000美元，所以我们显然是在补贴用户。我们正在开发下一代终端，它可以提供相同的能力水平，大致相同的能力水平，但成本要低得多。这是我们正在开发的一个领域，因为大规模的半价销售终端并不是很有吸引力。从长远来看，我们可能会把终端的成本从500美元降到300美元或250美元。

Musk: Yes, at present, we charge about $500. The standard of charge is basically the same in the world. It will only be slightly adjusted due to the tax rate and exchange rate. What I want to tell you is that we are selling terminals at a loss. We cost more than $1000 per terminal, so we are obviously subsidizing users. We are developing the next generation of terminals, which can provide the same level of capability, roughly the same level of capability, but at a much lower cost. This is an area we are developing, because large scale half price sales terminals are not super attractive. In the long run, we will probably reduce the cost of terminals from $500 to $300 or $250.

我们确实使安装变得容易，因为我们知道我们的客户将遍布世界各地，通常在非常偏远的地区。因此，我们的终端安装不需要专业人员。你可以把它从盒子里拿出来，安装和上网只需要不到5分钟。所以这些指令只是两条指令，也就是说，终端指向天空并插入它。你可以按任何顺序做。安装真的很简单，基本上每个人都可以轻松完成安装，不需要任何专业的安装人员。

We do make installation easy because we know our customers will be all over the world, usually in very remote areas. Therefore, our terminal installation does not need professionals. You can take it out of the box, and it only takes less than five minutes to install and surf the Internet. So these instructions are just two instructions, that is, the terminal points to the sky and inserts it. You can do it in any order. Installation is really very simple, basically everyone can easily complete the installation, without any professional installation personnel.

主持人：运营商目前还不清楚星链到底是朋友还是敌人，他们也在寻找对策。您计划如何与操作员合作？

Compere: the operator is not clear at present star chain is a friend or an enemy after all, they are also looking for countermeasures. How do you plan to work with operators?

马斯克：我们与主要国家（电信公司）有两个非常重要的伙伴关系。我希望我们现在就可以宣布，但显然我们会听取我们的合作伙伴的意见。我们正在与其他一些（电信公司）讨论提供星型链路接入。

Musk: we have two very important partnerships with major countries (telecommunication companies). I hope we can announce them now, but obviously we listen to our partners to make any announcement. We are discussing with some other (telecom companies) to provide star link access.

主持人：相对于卫星行业来说，SpaceX还是一家年轻的公司，但SpaceX在航天领域已经做了20多年的生意。你对人类重返月球的计划非常开放，但你并不满意。我们会知道你想走得更远，让人类登陆火星。我想知道星链将在这些总体规划中扮演什么角色？

Host: SpaceX is still a young company relative to the satellite industry, but SpaceX has been doing business in the space field for more than 20 years. You are very open to the plan of human returning to the moon, but you are not satisfied with it. We will know that you want to go further and land human on Mars. I want to know what role the star chain will play in these master plans?

马斯克：真正意义上的火箭技术必须大大提高，尤其是火箭技术的圣杯——要使火箭迅速成为可重复使用、可靠的火箭。有了"猎鹰9号"，我们实现了迄今为止所有火箭最有效的再利用。我们现在的助推器已经飞行了10次，有些可以飞行20到50次。换句话说，我们的火箭大约70%的成本可以回收利用。如果一切按计划进行，我们将研制一种运载能力为100吨的火箭。发射它的边际成本约为200万美元，低于发射猎鹰火箭的成本。

Musk: Rocket Technology in the real sense must be greatly improved, especially the Holy Grail of rocket technology - to make the rocket quickly become a reusable and reliable rocket. With Falcon 9, we have achieved the most efficient reuse of all rockets to date. We now have boosters that have flown 10 times, and some will fly 20 or 50 times. In other words, about 70% of the cost of our rockets can be recycled. If everything goes according to plan, we will develop a rocket with a carrying capacity of 100 tons. The marginal cost of launching it is about $2 million, which is lower than the cost of launching a falcon rocket.

主持人：我们什么时候能看到星际飞船？

Host: when can we see the Starship?

马斯克：你可以在互联网上看到它的发展进程。它在互联网上受到密切关注。事实上，互联网可以为你提供所有你想看到的最新信息，因为星际飞船的开发地点就在德克萨斯州南部的高速公路旁，所以永远不要忘记公众用长焦镜头瞄准我们的飞船。我们希望在未来几个月内进行首次轨道发射试验。在下个月左右，我们肯定会有一个助推器，并交付轨道电缆助推器和椭圆电缆船，以及准备发射场。

Musk: you can see its development progress on the Internet. It is closely watched on the Internet. In fact, the Internet can provide you with all the latest information you want to see, because the development site of the starship is just next to the highway in southern Texas, so never forget the public to aim our spaceship with a telephoto lens. We hope to have our first orbital launch test in the coming months. In the next month or so, we are sure to have a booster, and deliver an orbital cable booster and an elliptical cable boat, as well as prepare the launch site.

主持人：作为一个商业领袖，你似乎被你的使命所驱使。我想知道当你接受新的挑战时，你会寻找什么样的标准，因为你似乎更关注挑战而不是机遇。什么让你真正兴奋？

Host: as a business leader, you seem to be driven by your mission. I want to know what criteria you will look for when you accept new challenges, because you seem to focus more on challenges than opportunities. What makes you really excited?

马斯克：SpaceX所要做的是将意识的范围和尺度扩展到地球之外。特斯拉试图做的是通过可持续能源让地球上的生活变得更好。这是基于我的基本理念，你知道，我们不知道答案是什么，甚至不知道该问什么问题。但如果我们能扩大意识的规模和范围，那么我们就能更好地知道该问什么问题（腾旭科技整理/无极）

Musk: what SpaceX is trying to do is expand the scope and scale of consciousness beyond the earth. What Tesla is trying to do is to make life on earth better through sustainable energy. It's based on my basic philosophy, you know, we don't know what the answer is, or even what questions to ask. But if we can expand the scale and scope of consciousness, then we can better know what questions to ask（ Tengxu technology finishing / Wuji)

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210630/20210630A05I9Q00.html

update time：2021-06-30 14:46:53