Prism LYFT early investors comment didi: autonomous driving business is a strategic choice different from Uber

作者：王凡

Author: Wang Fan

产品|棱镜|腾讯新闻小曼工作室

Product | prism | Tencent News Xiaoman studio

5年前，滴滴宣布已与美国在线汽车销售巨头优步（Uber）达成战略协议，收购其在华资产，包括业务和数据。这位2012年成立的后起之秀在中国击败美国"傅老师"，通过投资LYFT深入优步总部，成为美国投资者对滴滴的印象。

Five years ago, Didi announced that it had reached a strategic agreement with Uber, the US online car Hailing giant, to acquire its Chinese assets including business and data. The rising star founded in 2012 beat the American "teacher Fu" in China, and went deep into Uber's headquarters by investing in LYFT, becoming the impression of American investors on Didi.

当地时间2021年6月30日，滴滴登陆美国资本市场，募集资金44亿美元，成为仅次于阿里巴巴的在美融资额最高的中国公司。在对比滴滴的"性价比"和优步估值的同时，美国投资者也意识到，由于竞争环境和商业前景不同，滴滴的战略方向与这两个国际竞争对手"截然相反"。

On June 30, 2021 local time, Didi landed in the US capital market and raised US $4.4 billion, becoming the highest financing Chinese company in the US after Alibaba. While comparing Didi's "cost performance" with Uber's valuation, American investors also realize that due to the different competitive environment and business prospects, Didi's strategic direction has been "diametrically opposed" to the two international rivals.

"与优步相比，滴滴网的核心在线租车业务在2019年根据调整后的息税折扣和摊销前利润实现了盈利。"曼哈顿风险投资伙伴研究主管Santosh Rao说，随着中国城市人口和可支配收入的持续增长，滴滴网的核心业务继续具有增长潜力，他告诉作者。

"Compared with Uber, Didi's core online car Hailing business has been profitable in 2019 based on adjusted interest tax discount and pre amortization profit." As China's urban population and disposable income continue to grow, Didi's core business continues to have growth potential, Santosh Rao, head of research at Manhattan venture partners, told the authors.

招股书显示，在三大业务板块中，中国旅游业务日均交易量2500万，月直播用户1.56亿，2020年贡献1336亿元，占总收入的93.4%。据研究机构数据显示，中国移动出行支出的复合年增长率可达19%，达到900亿美元。

According to the prospectus, among the three major business sectors, the daily average transaction volume of China's travel business is 25 million, with 156 million monthly live users, contributing 133.6 billion yuan in 2020, accounting for 93.4% of the total revenue. According to the data of research institutions, the compound annual growth rate of China's mobile travel expenditure can reach 19%, reaching US $90 billion.

"投资者不想错过全球第二大经济体最大的技术平台之一，更不想错过清晰的盈利路径和国际业务发展空间。"桑托什这样解读美国市场对滴滴IPO认购的态度，"IPO估值约为2022年预期收入的10倍，这是相对公平的。"桑塔什•饶的组织是LYFT的早期投资者之一，并参与了包括阿里巴巴在内的多家中国公司的早期投资。

"Investors do not want to miss one of the largest technology platforms in the world's second largest economy, let alone a clear profit path and room for international business development." Santosh interprets the attitude of the US market towards Didi's IPO subscription in this way, "the IPO valuation is about 10 times of the expected revenue in 2022, which is relatively fair." Santash Rao's organization is one of LYFT's early investors and has participated in the early investment of several Chinese companies, including Alibaba.

利润前景的不同确定性导致滴滴在技术研发和新兴业务上的投资比优步和LYFT更为积极。招股书显示，2020年滴滴的研发支出将达到63.17亿元，占总成本的4%。

The different certainty of profit prospects leads didi to invest more aggressively in technology R & D and emerging businesses than Uber and LYFT. According to the prospectus, Didi's R & D expenditure will reach 6.317 billion yuan in 2020, accounting for 4% of the total cost.

相比之下，受COVID-19的持续影响，核心业务有所萎缩，不仅减少了研发，还利用外卖和分销业务弥补了主营收入同比下滑的影响。根据第一季度的财务数据，Uber的外卖业务贡献了超过三分之一的收入。Rao Santashi认为，外卖业务是Uber的多业务尝试，Uber发展迅速，但亏损。滴滴不需要走优步的老路。除了考虑进一步的垂直领域整合和提高运营效率外，滴滴"是下一个重要领域"。

By contrast, by COVID-19's continued influence, the core business has shrunk, not only reducing R & D, but also taking advantage of takeaway and distribution business to make up for the year-on-year decline in main revenue. According to the first quarter financial data, Uber's take out business has contributed more than one-third of its revenue. Santashi Rao believes that the takeout business is a multi business attempt of Uber, which grows fast, but loses money. Didi does not need to follow the old path of Uber. In addition to considering further vertical field integration and improving operational efficiency, Didi "is the next important field.".

2020年，滴滴已在上海、北京、苏州、合肥和加州获得道路试验许可证。在同一时期，Uber和LYFT选择了收缩策略。2020年，Uber以4亿美元的价格出售了自动驾驶部门ATG，并以轻资产合作的方式取代了买方公司Aurora 26%的股份。今年4月，LYFT刚刚以5.5亿美元的价格将其汽车驾驶业务出售给丰田，预计将于今年第三季度完成。

In 2020, Didi has obtained road test licenses in Shanghai, Beijing, Suzhou, Hefei and California. Over the same period, Uber and LYFT chose to shrink their strategies. In 2020, Uber sold ATG, the automatic driving department, for $400 million, and replaced 26% of Aurora, the buyer's company, with a way of asset light cooperation. In April, LYFT just sold its auto driving business to Toyota for $550 million, which is expected to be completed in the third quarter of this year.

"Uber和LYFT是在盈利压力下的选择。在这个阶段，规模和利润都要考虑。"桑托什·饶认为，考虑到中国城市人口的增长和中国产业在智能汽车技术能力上的快速积累，滴滴在自主驾驶方面有较好的投资回报，也可以区别于其他竞争对手，实现战略增长。招股书显示，本次IPO募集资金的30%将用于提高技术能力，包括共享出行、电动汽车和自动驾驶等。

"Uber and LYFT are the choices under the pressure of profitability. At this stage, both scale and profit should be taken into account. " Santosh Rao believes that, considering the growth of China's urban population and the rapid accumulation of China's industry in intelligent vehicle technology capabilities, Didi has a better return on investment in autonomous driving, which can also be distinguished from other competitors and achieve strategic growth. According to the prospectus, 30% of the funds raised by the IPO will be used to improve technical capabilities, including shared travel, electric vehicles and autonomous driving.

滴滴也面临着自身的成长困境和风险。在一二线城市日趋饱和之后，进入下沉市场将面临新的战争。伯恩斯坦分析师cherry Leung预测，滴滴可能在小城市的新战争中被迫降价。此外，反垄断条例和《外国责任法》被列为招股说明书中的风险因素。美股二级市场流动性拐点信号的到来，也考验着包括滴滴在内的成长型公司能否保持增长势头。

Didi is also facing its own growth dilemma and risks. After the first and second tier cities become increasingly saturated, entering the sinking market will face a new war. Bernstein analyst cherry Leung predicts that didi may be forced to cut prices in the new war in small cities. In addition, antitrust regulation and the foreign Accountability Act are listed as risk factors in the prospectus. The arrival of the liquidity inflection point signal in the secondary market of U.S. stocks also tests whether the growth companies, including Didi, can maintain their growth momentum.

IPO当天，滴滴股价收盘上涨1%，收盘市值678亿美元（约合4377亿元人民币）。曾经在中国市场失利的优步，同期从滴滴的上市中获利。其12.8%的股权价值81亿美元，约占优步总市值的8.6%。

On the day of IPO, Didi's share price closed 1% higher, with a closing market value of US $67.8 billion (about 437.7 billion yuan). Uber, which was once defeated in the Chinese market, made profits from Didi's listing in the same period. Its 12.8% equity, worth US $8.1 billion, is about 8.6% of Uber's total market value.

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update time：2021-07-01 10:50:23