Boldly predict this year's Nobel Prize: mRNA vaccine scientists are expected to win the chemistry prize

年度诺贝尔奖将于10月公布，今年生理学或医学奖将于北京时间10月4日下午5:30公布；物理奖于5日下午5:45宣布，化学奖于6日下午5:45宣布。那么，今年哪些科学家有望分享这一崇高荣誉呢？

The annual Nobel Prize will be announced in October, and this year's physiology or medicine prize will be announced at 5:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 4; The physics prize was announced at 5:45 p.m. on the 5th and the chemistry prize at 5:45 p.m. on the 6th. So which scientists are expected to share this noble honor this year?

生理学或医学奖

Physiology or Medicine Award

三例发现丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）的科学家被授予新冠状病毒肺炎。正如今年预测的那样，这次行动带来了一些困难。从各个方面来看，今年最受欢迎的候选人应该仍然专注于神经科学领域。基于这一假设，我们可以预测2021年的热门候选人。

Novel coronavirus pneumonia was awarded to the three scientists who discovered the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in. This operation has brought some difficulties as the prediction of this year. Based on all aspects, the most popular candidates this year should still focus on the field of neuroscience. Based on this assumption, we can predict the popular candidates in 2021.

第一候选人：

No. 1 candidate:

斯坦福大学的卡尔·亚历山大·戴瑟罗斯、柏林洪堡大学的彼得·黑格曼和德国马克斯·普朗克生物化学研究所的迪特尔·欧斯特赫尔特。

Karl Alexander deisseroth of Stanford University, Peter hegemann of Humboldt University in Berlin and Dieter oesterhelt of Max Planck Institute of biochemistry in Germany.

获奖理由：他对细菌光敏蛋白的鉴定和光遗传学的诞生做出了重要贡献，从而推动了神经科学的快速发展。1971年，Esthelt和他的同事stocknius首次鉴定出细菌光敏蛋白；2003年，hergman在绿藻中发现了光敏蛋白ChR2；2005年，dieselos利用ChR2实现了光遗传学。

Reason for award: he has made fundamental contributions to the identification of bacterial photosensitive proteins and the birth of photogenetics, thus promoting the rapid development of neuroscience. In 1971, estehelt and his colleague stocknius first identified bacterial photosensitive proteins; In 2003, hergman found the photosensitive protein ChR2 in green algae; In 2005, dieselos realized photogenetics using ChR2.

预测理由：去年的光遗传学成果预计很有可能获奖。没有获奖的可能原因是疫情造成的变化。就在两天前，光遗传学成就刚刚在2021年获得拉斯克基础医学奖。获胜者是赫格曼、迪塞洛斯和埃尔舍特。因此，这三位科学家今年很有可能获奖（补充：由于许多科学家在光遗传学的发展中做出了重要贡献，候选人可能会有一些变化）。

Prediction reason: last year's optogenetics achievements were predicted to be awarded with a high probability. The possible reason for not winning the prize is the changes caused by the epidemic situation. Just two days ago, the optogenetics achievement just won the Lasker prize for basic medicine in 2021. The winners were hegman, dieselos and ershelt. Therefore, the three scientists have a high probability of winning awards this year (add: since many scientists have made important contributions in the development of optogenetics, there may be some changes in the candidates).

第二号候选人：

No. 2 candidate:

威斯康星大学罗伯特学院、洛克菲勒大学James Hudspeth分校和法国巴斯德学院Christine Petit分校。

Robert fettiplace of the University of Wisconsin, James Hudspeth of Rockefeller University and Christine Petit of the Pasteur Institute in France.

获奖原因：他在阐明听觉的分子和神经机制方面做出了开创性的贡献。自20世纪70年代以来，fertiplas以海龟为模型，hudspes以牛蛙为模型，分析耳蜗毛细胞介导的听觉形成的神经生物学和生理机制；自20世纪90年代以来，petit对遗传性耳聋患者进行了全面的遗传学、分子生物学和生化分析，鉴定出20多种听觉形成相关蛋白。

Reason for award: he has made pioneering contributions in clarifying the molecular and neural mechanisms of hearing. Since the 1970s, fertiplas has used turtles as models and hudspes has used bullfrogs as models to analyze the neurobiological and physiological mechanisms of cochlear hair cells mediated auditory formation; Since the 1990s, petit has comprehensively carried out genetic, molecular biological and biochemical analysis on patients with hereditary deafness, and identified more than 20 kinds of auditory formation related proteins.

预测原因：视觉、嗅觉和其他机制的解释已获得奖励。由于味觉机制与嗅觉相似，听觉已成为感觉系统中最重要、最独特的环节。因此，今年这三位获奖者的概率也很高。此外，疼痛和触觉领域的先驱大卫·朱利叶斯（David Julius）和阿登·帕塔普提安（Ardem Patapoutian）也有一些机会。

Prediction reason: the explanations of vision, smell and other mechanisms have been awarded. Since the taste mechanism is similar to smell, hearing has become the most important and unique link in the sensory system. Therefore, the probability of these three winners this year is also very high. In addition, David Julius and Ardem Patapoutian, pioneers in the field of pain and touch, also have some opportunities.

第三号候选人：

No. 3 candidate:

日本大阪大学小川精二；加州大学洛杉矶分校医学院迈克尔·爱德华·菲尔普斯；和Marcus Raichle，华盛顿大学医学院。

Seiji Ogawa, Osaka University, Japan; Michael Edward Phelps, UCLA School of medicine; and Marcus Raichle, University of Washington School of medicine.

获奖原因：在功能磁共振成像和pet方面做出的杰出贡献扩大了人类对大脑功能的深入理解和理解。1990年，小川诚治首次实现了功能磁共振成像（fMRI）；1973年，菲尔普斯共同发明了正电子扫描（PET）；Reichler花了近40年时间探索PET-CT和功能磁共振成像在脑功能成像领域的应用。

Reason for award: the outstanding contributions made in fMRI and pet have expanded human's in-depth understanding and understanding of brain function. In 1990, Seiji Ogawa first realized functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI); In 1973, Phelps co invented positron scanning (PET); Reichler spent nearly 40 years exploring the application of PET-CT and fMRI in the field of brain functional imaging.

预测理由：大脑是人体最复杂的器官，人类对大脑的理解仍然非常有限。因此，借助非侵入性研究工具探索大脑奥秘具有重要意义。随着功能磁共振成像和PET技术的发明及其在脑功能成像领域的广泛应用，人类对脑功能有了更全面的认识。尽管许多问题尚未解决，功能磁共振成像和pet无疑具有很大的价值。由于脑科学领域受到诺贝尔奖委员会的青睐，这三位科学家获奖的机会也更大。

Prediction reason: the brain is the most complex organ of the human body, and human understanding of the brain is still very limited. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the mystery of the brain with the help of non-invasive research tools. With the invention of fMRI and PET technology and their wide application in the field of brain functional imaging, human beings have a more comprehensive understanding of brain function. Although many problems have not been solved, fMRI and pet are undoubtedly of great value. Because the field of brain science has been favored by the Nobel Prize Committee, the three scientists also have a greater chance of winning prizes.

第四号候选人：

No. 4 candidate:

Adrian Peter爵士，爱丁堡大学，英国，Huda Yahya zoghbi，贝勒医学院，USA.

Sir Adrian Peter bird, University of Edinburgh, UK, and Huda Yahya zoghbi, Baylor School of medicine, USA.

伯德和佐格比

Bird and Zogby

获奖原因：对Rett综合征研究的基本和开创性贡献。1999年，佐格比发现了Rett综合征突变基因MeCP2。Bird和Zogby进一步揭示了mcep2的机制。Rett综合征是一种X连锁遗传病。MeCP2突变的男孩通常无法存活，而MeCP2突变的女孩在2岁左右开始出现症状，包括智力迟钝、语言和协调功能障碍、癫痫等。研究发现，MeCP2功能障碍也与双相情感障碍和精神分裂症有关。这两位科学家的贡献是通过分析雷特综合征的发病机制，加深对神经系统疾病的认识和理解，为进一步治疗奠定基础。

Reason for award: basic and pioneering contribution in the research of Rett syndrome. In 1999, Zogby identified the Rett syndrome mutant gene MeCP2. Bird and Zogby further revealed the mechanism of mcep2. Rett syndrome is an X-linked genetic disease. Boys with MeCP2 mutation usually cannot survive, while girls with MeCP2 mutation begin to have symptoms around the age of 2, including mental retardation, language and coordination dysfunction, seizures, etc. It was found that MeCP2 dysfunction was also related to bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The contribution of the two scientists is to deepen the understanding and understanding of neurological disorders by analyzing the mechanism of Rett syndrome, so as to lay a foundation for further treatment.

预测原因：Rett综合征是一种X连锁疾病。男孩通常很难生存。MeCP2突变的女孩在2岁左右开始出现症状，包括智力迟钝、语言和协调功能障碍、癫痫等。研究发现，MeCP2功能障碍也与双相情感障碍和精神分裂症有关。这两位科学家的贡献是通过分析Rett综合征和相关神经系统疾病的机制，为治疗提供新的策略。

Prediction reason: Rett syndrome is an X-linked disease. It is usually difficult for boys to survive. Girls with a MeCP2 mutation will begin to develop symptoms around the age of 2, including mental retardation, language and coordination dysfunction, seizures, etc. It was found that MeCP2 dysfunction was also related to bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The contribution of the two scientists is to provide a new strategy for treatment by analyzing the mechanism of Rett syndrome and related neurological disorders.

第五号候选人：

No. 5 candidate:

法国斯特拉斯堡大学的皮埃尔·钱本、美国索尔克学院的罗纳德·埃文斯和美国洛克菲勒大学的罗伯特·罗德。

Pierre Chambon of Strasbourg University in France, Ronald Evans of Salk Institute in the United States and Robert Roeder of Rockefeller University in the United States.

获奖原因：在转录因子领域的开创性贡献。自20世纪80年代以来，shanbang和Evans已经鉴定出核受体，它们作为最早的特异转录因子具有基础和临床价值；自20世纪70年代末以来，rod已经鉴定出了普遍的转录因子，这对于加深对转录机制的理解具有重要价值。（这是一位候选人。如果它被授予生物化学领域，这三位科学家更有可能获奖。）

Reason for award: pioneering contribution in the field of transcription factors. Since the 1980s, shanbang and Evans have identified nuclear receptors, which have basic and clinical value as the earliest specific transcription factors; Since the late 1970s, rod has identified universal transcription factors, which is of great value to deepen the understanding of transcription mechanism. (this is a candidate. If it is awarded to the field of Biochemistry, the three scientists are more likely to win the prize.)

预测原因：转录因子的发现对生物化学乃至生命科学的发展起着重要作用。事实上，2019年诺贝尔生理学或医学奖授予的缺氧诱导因子是一种转录因子。然而，结果太基本，时间有点"长"，不清楚委员会是否"忘记"了这些结果。尚邦在生理学领域堪称"约翰·古德够"。他今年90岁，有望获奖。

Prediction reason: the discovery of transcription factors plays an important role in the development of Biochemistry and even life science. In fact, hypoxia inducible factor awarded by the 2019 Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine is a transcription factor. However, the results are too basic and the times are a little "long", and it is unclear whether they have been "forgotten" by the Committee. ShangBang can be regarded as "John goodenough" in the field of physiology. He is 90 years old this year and is expected to win the prize.

其他团体包括：洛克菲勒大学的大卫·艾利斯、加州大学洛杉矶分校的迈克尔·格伦斯坦和哈佛大学的斯图尔特·施赖伯，以表彰他们在组蛋白修饰和基因表达调控领域的重要贡献；京都大学的Kazutoshi Mori和旧金山加利福尼亚大学的Peter Walter，认识到他们发现"ER折叠蛋白反应"的重要发现；瑞士伯尔尼大学的迈克尔·豪尔承认他在"发现mTOR"过程中的重要贡献。

Other groups include: David allis of Rockefeller University, Michael grunstein of UCLA and Stuart Schreiber of Harvard University, in recognition of their important contributions in the field of histone modification and gene expression regulation; Kazutoshi Mori of Kyoto University and Peter Walter of the University of California, San Francisco, in recognition of their important discovery of "Er unfolded protein response"; Michael Hall of the University of Basel in Switzerland recognized his important contribution in the process of "discovering mTOR".

化学奖

Chemistry Award

尽管去年的诺贝尔化学奖授予了生物化学领域（CRISPR/cas9基因编辑系统的发明），但根据之前授予诺贝尔化学奖的法律（两年的生命化学加上一年的其他化学间隔），仍然有很高的可能性（约50%）今年将被授予生命科学领域。本文将以这一假设作为预测的前提。

Although last year's Nobel Prize in chemistry was awarded to the field of Biochemistry (the invention of CRISPR / cas9 gene editing system), according to the previous law of awarding the Nobel Prize in Chemistry (two years of life chemistry plus one year of other chemistry intervals), there is still a high probability (about 50%) to be awarded to the field of life science this year. This paper will take this assumption as the premise for prediction.

第一候选人：

No. 1 candidate:

卡塔琳·卡里克和宾夕法尼亚大学的Weissman。

Katalin karik ó and drew Weissman of the University of Pennsylvania.

获奖原因：mRNA疫苗开发方面的开创性研究。2005年，carrico和Weisman发现，对mRNA进行体外修饰可以消除严重的炎症反应，从而为mRNA的实际应用扫清了关键障碍。

Reason for award: pioneering research in the development of mRNA vaccine. In 2005, carrico and Weisman found that the modification of mRNA in vitro can eliminate the severe inflammatory response, thus clearing the key obstacles for the practical application of mRNA.

2020新冠状病毒肺炎暴发流行：mRNA疫苗的迅速发展和广泛应用，极大地遏制了疫情的爆发。今年的诺贝尔化学奖最有可能授予疫苗研发领域（技术层面），而mRNA修饰无疑是最大的亮点。由于卡里科和魏斯曼今年获得了许多科学奖（特别是几天前刚刚分享的2021年拉斯克临床医学奖），他们今年获得诺贝尔化学奖的可能性很大。

Novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in 2020: rapid development and wide application of mRNA vaccine have greatly curbed the outbreak. This year's Nobel Prize in chemistry is most likely to be awarded to the field of vaccine research and development (technical level), and mRNA modification is undoubtedly the biggest highlight. Since carrico and Weisman have won many scientific awards this year (especially the Lasker Clinical Medicine Award in 2021 just shared a few days ago), they have a high chance of winning the Nobel Prize in chemistry this year.

第二号候选人：

No. 2 candidate:

斯坦福大学的杰姆斯安东尼斯皮奇，德克萨斯大学医学部的Michael Patrick sheetz，旧金山加利福尼亚大学的Ronald David谷。

James Anthony spudich of Stanford University, Michael Patrick sheetz of the medical division of the University of Texas, and Ronald David vale of the University of California, San Francisco.

获奖理由：在阐明生命分子的运动机制方面做出了坚实的贡献。

Reason for award: a solid contribution in clarifying the movement mechanism of life molecules.

预测的理由：分子运动对生命的重要性是不言而喻的。20世纪80年代，三位科学家构建了体外生命运动系统，鉴定了生命分子马达并阐明了分子运动机制。近年来，诺贝尔化学奖一直集中在技术层面（如生物技术和基因编辑），因此获得回归理论奖的概率很高。

Reason for prediction: the importance of molecular motion to life is self-evident. In the 1980s, three scientists constructed an in vitro life motion system, identified the life molecular motor and clarified the molecular motion mechanism. In recent years, the Nobel Prize in chemistry has focused on the technical level (such as biotechnology and gene editing), so the probability of winning the prize of regression theory is high.

第三号候选人：

No. 3 candidate:

美国耶鲁大学的Franz Ulrich Hartl和Arthur L.Horwich。

Franz Ulrich Hartl and Arthur L. Horwich of Yale University in the United States.

获奖理由：阐明蛋白质折叠的分子机制。20世纪80年代，两位科学家发现了伴侣，并进一步阐明了蛋白质从初级结构到高级结构的折叠过程。

Reason for award: elucidation of the molecular mechanism of protein folding. Two scientists discovered chaperone in the 1980s and further clarified the process of protein folding from primary structure to advanced structure.

预测理由：蛋白质是生命过程的核心，蛋白质结构是功能的基础。因此，这两位科学家工作的重要性不言而喻。这是一个纯粹的理论研究，但却有一种"常提常忘"的感觉。我希望获奖。

Reason for prediction: protein is the core of life process, and protein structure is the basis of function. Therefore, the importance of the work of the two scientists is self-evident. This is a pure theoretical research, but there is a feeling of "often mentioned and always forgotten". I hope to win the prize.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210929/20210929A09DOT00.html

update time：2021-10-01 10:21:10