Ding Dong buys vegetables. Where are you going?

8月30日，鼎东购物发布了上市后的第一份财务报告。根据财务报告数据，截至2021年6月30日，定东实现收入46.5亿元，同比增长77.9%，但尚未实现正利润。营业利润方面，与2020年同期7.95亿元的亏损相比，2021年第二季度的烧钱趋势更加突出，同比增长143.9%，达到19.38亿元。

On August 30, dingdong shopping released its first financial report after listing. According to the financial report data, as of June 30, 2021, dingdong achieved a revenue of 4.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.9%, but it has not yet achieved positive profit. In terms of operating profit, compared with the loss of 795 million yuan in the same period in 2020, the money burning trend in Q2 in 2021 is more prominent, with a year-on-year increase of 143.9% to 1.938 billion yuan.

与丁东的蔬菜采购类似，同样在前端仓库轨道上的《每日游仙报》随着第二季度收入的增长，进一步扩大了亏损，陷入了收入增加而利润不增加的怪圈。从这个角度看，前沿阵地模式还远未实现自我融资，自我认证能力之路也远未结束。不乐观是合理的。我们下一步该去哪里？丁东买蔬菜时能给出答案吗？

Similar to Ding Dong's buying vegetables, daily Youxian, also in the front warehouse track, further expanded its losses with the growth of Q2 revenue and fell into a strange circle of increasing revenue without increasing profit. From this point of view, the front position mode is still far from self financing, and the road of self certification ability is far from the end. It is reasonable not to be optimistic. Where should we go next? Can Ding Dong give the answer when buying vegetables?

收入和损失是密切相关的

Revenue and loss go hand in hand

如果你只关注收入指标，丁东在买菜方面的表现也不错。同比增长77.9%，环比增长22.2%。在去年疫情的影响下，保持国内经济基础的增长并不容易。因此，许多投资者持乐观态度。更多的人公开表示："仅从增长的角度来看，定东在购买蔬菜方面的表现是无可挑剔的。"

If you only focus on revenue indicators, Ding Dong's performance in buying vegetables is not bad. An increase of 77.9% year-on-year and 22.2% month on month. It is not easy to keep the home economic base rising under the influence of the epidemic last year. Therefore, many investors are optimistic. More people publicly stated: "from the perspective of growth alone, dingdong's performance in buying vegetables is impeccable."

事实真的如此乐观吗？不是。

Is the fact really so optimistic? It's not.

资本既不愚蠢也不愿意把钱用于慈善事业。所有企业的最终目标都是盈利。就盈利能力而言，毛利润和净利润比收入更重要。

Capital is neither stupid nor willing to take money for charity. The ultimate goal of all businesses is to make profits. In terms of profitability, gross profit and net profit are more important than revenue.

就归属于母公司的净利润而言，鼎东经营蔬菜多年，未能实现自负盈亏的目标。梳理财务报告数据，我们可以看到，尽管定东的蔬菜收购营业收入持续增长，但其净利润不仅没有扭亏为盈，而且还在继续扩大。丁东2019年和2020年购买蔬菜的净损失分别为18.73亿元人民币和31.77亿元人民币。今年上半年总亏损33.22亿元，已超过2020年。

As far as the net profit attributable to the parent company is concerned, dingdong has been operating vegetables for many years and has not been able to achieve the goal of being responsible for its own profits and losses. Sorting out the financial report data, we can see that although dingdong's operating income from buying vegetables continues to grow, its net profit not only does not turn losses into profits, but continues to expand. Ding Dong's net losses from buying vegetables in 2019 and 2020 were RMB 1.873 billion and RMB 3.177 billion respectively. The total loss of RMB 3.322 billion in the first half of this year has exceeded that in 2020.

与分析师的意见进行比较，然后观察定东的购物情况。其业务仍处于第一阶段。根据财务报告，丁东在2021年第二季度的毛利率为14.6%，比第一季度的18.9%下降了4.3个百分点。2019年和2020年，定东的蔬菜采购毛利率分别为17.1%和19.7%，也高于2021年第二季度的数据。

Compare with analysts' opinions and then observe dingdong's shopping. Its business is still in the first stage. According to financial reports, Ding Dong's gross profit margin in Q2 was 14.6% in 2021, down 4.3 percentage points from 18.9% in the first quarter. In 2019 and 2020, dingdong's gross profit margin of buying vegetables was 17.1% and 19.7% respectively, which was also higher than the data in the second quarter of 2021.

无论是毛利润还是净利润，丁东在购买蔬菜方面的表现都不令人满意。尽管该公司预计第三季度毛利率和非公认会计准则净亏损率将有所提高，并且"在2021年第四季度实现单位经济效益的正营业利润"的口号已经呼喊，但不信任的人数仍然很多。

Whether gross profit or net profit, Ding Dong's performance in buying vegetables is not satisfactory. Although the company estimates that the gross profit margin and non GAAP net loss ratio will improve in the third quarter, and the slogan of "achieving positive operating profit in unit economic benefits in the fourth quarter of 2021" has been shouted, the number of distrusters is still large.

关注新鲜电子商务轨道的投资者林帅表示："丁东买菜目前不是一个好的商业模式，未来很难形成一个好的商业模式。"除了毛利润和分销成本的障碍，他认为，垂直电商不可能赢得综合电商，"当丁东买蔬菜时，每天的优质新鲜食物都不会干面团，因为它们也在流失，但流量的利用效果却大不相同。"

Lin Shuai, an investor who pays attention to the fresh e-commerce track, said: "Ding Dong buying vegetables is not a good business model at present, and it is difficult to make a good business model in the future." in addition to the obstacles of gross profit and distribution cost, he believes that vertical e-commerce has no chance of winning for comprehensive e-commerce, "When Ding Dong buys vegetables, every day's excellent and fresh food can't dry meituan, because they are also draining, but the utilization effect of flow is very different."

虽然市场很大，但竞争也不小

Although the market is large, the competition is not small

自去年以来，生鲜电子商务的竞争格局变得明显而激烈。初创企业的退出、互联网巨头的终结、竞赛日程的加快和淘汰进程的加快。

Since last year, the competition pattern of fresh e-commerce has become obvious and fierce. The withdrawal of start-ups, the end of Internet giants, the acceleration of the competition schedule and the acceleration of elimination progress.

新鲜食物变成了风口，这似乎很奇怪。事实上，这并不难理解。在衣、食、住、行四大消费中，食品无疑是最频繁、最普遍的。一日三餐的旧传统和城市对少吃多餐的新需求都指向"吃"。数据显示，2011年以来，新注册的生鲜电商企业数量以20%的复合年增长率增长，2020年达到4103家，生鲜电商渗透率从2016年的2.8%上升到2020年的8.1%，中投预计2025年达到17.8%。

It seems strange that fresh food has become a tuyere. In fact, it is not difficult to understand. Food is undoubtedly the most frequent and common of the four major consumption of clothing, food, housing and transportation. The old tradition of eating three meals a day and the new urban demand for eating less and more meals are all pointing to "eating". The data show that since 2011, the number of newly registered fresh e-commerce enterprises has increased at a compound annual growth rate of 20%, reaching 4103 in 2020, the penetration rate of fresh e-commerce has increased from 2.8% in 2016 to 8.1% in 2020, and CIC expects to reach 17.8% in 2025.

但与广阔的市场相对应，几乎所有的玩家都不能玩得很好。

But corresponding to the broad market, almost all players can't play well.

东吴证券分析师吴金曹和杨静都认为，在线生鲜食品零售是一场持久战。前仓模式较重，社区团购规模较大。相比之下，社区团购的绩效成本控制更好，更接近利润，前端仓库的损失可能会持续很长时间。

Wu Jincao and Yang Jing, analysts of Soochow securities, both believe that online fresh food retail is a protracted war. The front warehouse model is heavier and the scale of community group purchase is larger. In contrast, the control of performance cost of community group purchase is better and closer to profit, and the loss of front warehouse may still last for a long time.

前方仓库轨道无望实现自我造血。如果成功上市代表着资本市场的认可，那么丁东购买蔬菜的最大筹码就是用户增长。互联网巨头已经成为新兴电子商务领域的热门。他们只看到大量的资本投资，而没有看到任何人的利润产出。在这样的前提下，对客户的竞争被放在最优先的位置，而增长意味着一切。

There is no hope for the front warehouse track to achieve self hematopoiesis. If the successful listing represents the recognition of the capital market, the biggest chip for Ding Dong to buy vegetables is user growth. Internet giants have become popular in the field of fresh e-commerce. They only see a large amount of capital investment and no one's profit output. Under such a premise, the competition for customers is placed at the highest priority, and growth means everything.

equalocean的海外分析师认为，定东近年来保持了快速增长，实现了业界最大的Gmv。其次，高成本、与顶级企业的竞争日益激烈以及脆弱的商业模式是主要风险。

Overseas analysts of equalocean believe that dingdong has maintained rapid growth in recent years and achieved the largest Gmv in the industry. Next, high costs, increasingly fierce competition with top enterprises and fragile business models are the main risks.

说实话，丁东在相关指标上做得不是很好。

To tell you the truth, Ding Dong doesn't do very well in the related indicators.

根据财务报告数据，2021年第二季度，定东蔬菜收购平台月交易用户数较去年同期增长39.1%，达到840万。Gmv同比增长80.8%，从29.75亿元增至53.78亿元。在定东蔬菜采购主管的描述中，信用来自用户操作。鼎东创始人兼首席执行官梁长林表示，"Gmv的增长表现令人振奋"。Gmv改进背后的原因是客户群覆盖范围的扩大和平台现有用户购买频率的增加。

According to the financial report data, in Q2 of 2021, the number of monthly transaction users of dingdong vegetable buying platform increased by 39.1% compared with the same period last year, reaching 8.4 million. Gmv increased by 80.8% year-on-year, from 2.975 billion yuan to 5.378 billion yuan. In the description of dingdong vegetable buying executives, the credit comes from user operation. Liang Changlin, founder and CEO of dingdong, said that "the growth performance of Gmv is exciting". The reasons behind the improvement of Gmv are attributed to the expansion of customer base coverage and the increase of purchase frequency of existing users of the platform.

在生鲜电商领域，能与定东购物相媲美的企业都是日臻优秀的生鲜企业。同样，美国股票上市，采用前仓模式。他们不仅是被视为前线仓库"代言人"的队友，也是在寻求更美好未来时需要获胜的对手。

In the field of fresh e-commerce, the enterprises that can compare with dingdong's shopping are daily excellent fresh. Similarly, the US stocks are listed and adopt the front warehouse mode. They are not only teammates regarded as the "spokesperson" of the front warehouse, but also opponents who need to win when seeking a better future.

在8月27日发布的第二季度报告中，《游仙日报》没有披露用户数据。可以比较的是，其招股说明书中提到，从2018年到2020年，每日游仙的有效用户数量一直在增加。到2020年底，有效用户数量为890万，到2021年第一季度，累计交易用户已超过3100万。

In the Q2 quarterly report released on August 27, daily Youxian did not disclose user data. It can be compared that it is mentioned in its prospectus that the number of effective users of daily Youxian has always increased from 2018 to 2020. The number of effective users at the end of 2020 was 8.9 million, and the cumulative Trading users had exceeded 31 million by the first quarter of 2021.

这家大工厂一直在关注新鲜食品，丁东买蔬菜的窗口期不长。林帅说："这是另一个糟糕的商业模式。有很多竞争对手，只要后来者付钱，他们就可以在地区市场上占有一席之地。"。

The big factory keeps an eye on fresh food, and the window period left for Ding Dong to buy vegetables is not long. "This is another point of bad business model. There are many competitors, and as long as the latecomers pay their money, they can grab a piece of a regional market," Lin Shuai said.

打破游戏的道路才刚刚开始

The road to breaking the game has just begun

压力来自四面八方，试图提高净利润。叮咚只能找到另一种方式去买蔬菜。

Pressure comes from all directions, trying to improve the net profit. Ding Dong can only find another way to buy vegetables.

在财报电话会议上，丁东的蔬菜采购主管们提出，下半年的核心计划之一是加大自有品牌研发力度，投资上游农业，确保商品的性价比。

At the earnings call, Ding Dong's vegetable buying executives proposed that one of the core plans in the second half of the year is to increase the R & D of private brands and invest in upstream agriculture to ensure the cost performance of commodities.

事实上，定东自己的蔬菜收购品牌已经开始发挥作用。5月31日，丁东收购了葵花，宣布建立高端私人品牌"丁东旺"。梁长林说："去年下半年，自有品牌的GMV占总GMV的1.9%至第二季度的4.9%。预计第四季度将达到8%。从长远来看，生鲜食品比其他产品更容易形成自有品牌，未来自有品牌的比例可能达到30%。"

In fact, dingdong's own brand of buying vegetables has begun to work. In May 31st, Ding Dong bought Kwai announced that the high-end private brand "Ding Dong Wang" should be established. Liang Changlin said: "in the second half of last year, the GMV of its own brand accounted for 1.9% of total GMV to 4.9% of Q2. It is estimated that Q4 will reach 8%. In the long run, fresh food is easier to form its own brand than other products, and the proportion of future private brands may reach 30%."

分析指出，自有品牌不仅可以帮助平台开展差异化竞争，还可以有效提高客户单价和毛利率。当磁场的整体格局稳定时，在红海中找到一个细分的蓝海是打破这种局面的好办法。如果丁东在左边通过向研发注入资金购买蔬菜，《游仙日报》选择在右边建立一个社区零售数字平台。

The analysis points out that private brands can not only help the platform to carry out differentiated competition, but also effectively improve the customer unit price and gross profit margin. When the overall pattern of the field is stable, it is a good way to break the situation to find a subdivided blue ocean in the red ocean. If Ding Dong buys vegetables by injecting capital into R & D on the left, daily Youxian chooses to build a community retail digital platform on the right.

《游仙日报》的招股说明书表明，他们致力于"成为推动中国社区零售业数字化的最大平台"。《游仙日报》在第二季度报告中披露，他们已与中国15个城市签署了58份智能鲜活市场运营合同，并在中国11个城市推出了34个智能鲜活市场。

The daily Youxian prospectus shows that they are committed to "becoming the largest platform to promote the digitization of China's community retail industry". In the second quarter report, Youxian daily disclosed that they have signed 58 smart fresh market operation contracts with 15 cities in China and launched 34 smart fresh markets in 11 cities in China.

无论是启动自主品牌研发，还是布局数字化智能生鲜食品，竞争的实质都是效率和效益的最大化，充分利用现有资源创造核心竞争力。

Whether it is to start private brand R & D or layout digital intelligent fresh food, the essence of competition is to maximize efficiency and benefit, and make good use of existing resources to create core competitiveness.

鲜活电子商务领域的观察员刘章明认为，该市场的发展受到产品类型有限、物流配送发展受限、配套基础设施不完善、价格机制复杂、波动性大等因素的制约。从这个角度来看，新鲜的电子商务市场需要教育，高效运作还很遥远。

Liu Zhangming, an observer in the field of fresh e-commerce, believes that the development of this market is restricted by limited product types, restricted development of logistics distribution, imperfect supporting infrastructure, complex price mechanism and great fluctuation. From this perspective, the fresh e-commerce market needs to be educated, and efficient operation is still far away.

丁东买菜的问题也可以说是整个前仓轨道的问题。web4.0时代的市场期待着更加创新和彻底的商业模式改革。跟上时代的步伐已经落后了。预测未来、提前转向的玩家无疑可以赢得更多的机会，而定东断绝的买菜之路才刚刚开始。

The problem of Ding Dong buying vegetables can also be said to be the problem of the whole front warehouse track. The market in the web4.0 era looks forward to more innovative and thorough business model reform. Keeping up with the pace of the times is already backward. Players who predict the future and turn in advance can undoubtedly win more opportunities, and dingdong's broken road of buying vegetables has just begun.

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update time：2021-10-01 10:21:10