Under power rationing, the new energy vehicle market has no choice but to brake?

资料来源：pexels

Source: pexels

9月29日，辽宁省发布了严重缺电二级橙色预警，很快就登上了热搜。

On September 29, Liaoning issued a serious power shortage level II orange warning, which soon boarded the hot search.

自9月23日以来，东北地区许多地方都发布了限电通知，这表明如果电力短缺得不到缓解，限电可能会继续。

Since September 23, many places in Northeast China have issued power rationing notices, which show that if the power shortage is not alleviated, the power rationing may continue.

"那天晚上，我正走在拐角处，隔壁沈阳二中教学楼的灯突然熄灭，然后学生们欢呼起来。"沈阳沈北新区居民周欣仍然记得9月23日晚上的停电。那天晚上，坏电影响了，一些道路因为信号灯没电而拥堵。

"I was walking around the corner that night, the lights of the teaching building of Shenyang No. 2 middle school next door suddenly went out, and then the students cheered." Zhou Xin, a resident of Shenyang Shenbei New District, still remembers the power outage on the night of September 23. That night, the broken movie rang, and some roads were congested because the signal lights were out of power.

在过去的一周，"限电"从东北开始，并蔓延到中国的10多个省份。据《未来汽车报》不完全统计，截至9月28日，黑龙江、吉林、辽宁等省、广东、江苏、浙江、山东、安徽、河南、福建、宁夏、青海、内蒙古、上海等省已发出限电通知。

In the past week, "power rationing" started from the northeast and spread to more than 10 provinces in China. According to incomplete statistics of future auto daily, as of September 28, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Henan, Fujian, Ningxia, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai and other provinces have issued power restriction notices.

中央电视台发布文件称，这一轮多重限电主要受全国煤炭短缺、煤价与基准电价严重倒挂、连接线净容量下降等因素影响。

CCTV issued a document saying that this round of multiple power rationing is mainly affected by national coal shortage, serious inversion between coal cost and benchmark electricity price, decline in net capacity of connecting lines and other factors.

一些专业人士认为，煤炭电力供应不足将对新能源汽车行业产生不利影响。

Some professionals believe that the lack of coal power supply will have an adverse impact on the new energy vehicle industry.

根据中国汽车流通协会发布的数据，8月份新能源乘用车零售额达到24.9万辆，同比增长167.5%，环比增长12.0%。1-8月，新能源汽车零售额147.9万辆，同比增长202.1%。

According to the data released by China Automobile Circulation Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 249000 in August, a year-on-year increase of 167.5% and a month on month increase of 12.0%. From January to August, the retail volume of new energy vehicles was 1.479 million, a year-on-year increase of 202.1%.

新能源汽车行业仍然受到缺乏核心和电池短缺的困扰。现在面临电力短缺，快速发展的新能源汽车市场将被迫踩下紧急刹车？

The new energy vehicle industry is still plagued by the pain of lack of core and battery shortage. Now it encounters power shortage, and the rapidly developing new energy vehicle market will be forced to step on the emergency brake?

停电了。我的电动汽车"没电了"

There's a power failure. My electric car "has no power to add"

在河北省保定市，虽然这个偏僻角落的小城市没有遭遇大规模停电，但这些新能源所有者陷入了恐慌。

In Baoding, Hebei Province, although this small city in a remote corner has not suffered a large-scale power outage, those new energy owners have fallen into panic.

资料来源：pexels

Source: pexels

保定大部分在线租车和出租车采用Euler IQ和长城C30新能源车型。每个人都害怕突然停电，汽车无法通电，所以他们涌进充电站。保定一家旅游公司负责人吴琪告诉《未来汽车报》："目前，保定的每个充电站都要排队充电。"。

Most online car hailing and taxis in Baoding adopt Euler IQ and Great Wall C30 new energy models. Everyone was afraid of a sudden power failure and the car couldn't power up, so they poured into the charging station. Wu Qi, the person in charge of a travel company in Baoding, told future auto daily that "at present, each charging station in Baoding has to queue up to charge".

吴琪表示，过去，在线出租车司机通常在夜间收费。"保定地区不大，射程400多公里，基本上可以维持一天的运行。"

According to Wu Qi, in the past, online taxi drivers used to charge at night. "Baoding area is not large. Euler IQ has a range of more than 400 kilometers, which can basically maintain one-day operation."

现在，由于电影数量有限，大多数司机将充电频率从每天一次增加到每天两次甚至三次。一些司机利用"午餐时间补充电力，两次命令后司机返回充电站充电。"每个人的里程焦虑普遍加剧。

Now, due to many limited movies, most drivers increase the charging frequency once a day to twice or even three times a day. Some drivers use the "lunch time to replenish electricity, and the driver turns back to the charging station to charge after two orders." everyone's mileage anxiety is generally aggravated.

保定的在线汽车招呼司机在充电站"抢电"，东北车主对新能源汽车有了新的认识。

Baoding's online car Hailing drivers "scramble for power" in the charging station, and northeast car owners have a new understanding of new energy vehicles.

由于中国东北地区冬季漫长，气候异常寒冷，锂电池的续航里程显著减少。因此，大多数消费者对电动汽车望而却步。

Due to the long winter and unusually cold climate in Northeast China, the range of lithium battery decreases significantly. Therefore, most consumers are deterred from electric vehicles.

但停电后，周欣对新能源汽车的看法发生了变化。

But after the power outage, Zhou Xin's view on new energy vehicles has changed.

这是周欣在短视频平台上拍摄的一段视频，"一位车主连接了一辆自主品牌插电式混合动力车的外部电源，在家做饭"。这段视频感动了周欣，"这相当于一个巨大的移动充电宝藏。中国东北地区缺电的人们太需要它了。"。

This comes from a video brushed by Zhou Xin on the short video platform, "a car owner connected an external power supply of an independent brand plug-in hybrid car to cook at home". This video touched Zhou Xin, "this is equivalent to a large mobile charging treasure. People in Northeast China who lack electricity need it too much".

让人想起最近河南的一场暴雨，一位车主用一辆纯电动汽车为社区十多位邻居的手机充电。周欣心中的天平突然微微移动。你知道，中国东北地区的人们从来没有对新能源汽车感兴趣。在他们心中，奥迪、梅赛德斯-奔驰和丰田等燃料车是王者。

Reminiscent of the recent rainstorm in Henan, a car owner used a pure electric car to charge his cell phone for more than a dozen neighbors in the community. The balance in Zhou Xin's heart suddenly moved slightly. You know, people in Northeast China have never been interested in new energy vehicles. In their hearts, fuel vehicles such as Audi, Mercedes Benz and Toyota are the king.

随着限电措施在全国的推广，更多的新能源所有者进入了"备战"状态。北京的一位小鹏P7车主说："我不打算在国庆假期外出。如果路上的充电桩断电，怎么回来是个问题。"。也有新能源汽车车主将他们的通勤方式改为地铁和公交车。

With the spread of power rationing measures throughout the country, more new energy owners have entered the state of "war preparation". "I don't plan to go out during the National Day holiday. In case the charging pile on the road is powered off, how to come back is a problem," said a Xiaopeng P7 owner in Beijing. There are also new energy vehicle owners who change their commuting mode to subway and bus.

充电桩加速"光存储充电"？

Charging pile accelerates to "optical storage charging"?

不可避免地，收费业务也受到了影响。

Inevitably, the charging business has also been affected.

广州一家充电桩运营商透露，由于当地供电不足，广州市海珠区和越秀区的充电桩更有可能面临停电。《2021年广州有序用电公告》还显示，海珠地区部分充电桩在周一至周五上午8点至晚上11点错开高峰时段用电，即电动汽车车主只能在相应时段充电。

A Guangzhou charging pile operator disclosed that the charging piles in Haizhu District and Yuexiu District of Guangzhou are more likely to face power failure due to the shortage of local power supply. A "2021 notice on orderly power consumption in Guangzhou" also shows that some charging piles in Haizhu area use power in staggered peak shifts from 8 a.m. to 11 p.m. from Monday to Friday, that is, electric vehicle owners can only charge in the corresponding time period.

资料来源：网络

Source: Network

像保定一样，"广州大部分在线售车都是电动汽车。一旦充电站有限，就会影响我们的日常充电计划。"广州的一位出租车司机告诉《未来汽车日报》，"许多电动汽车白天需要快速充电。如果高频充电桩受到限制，肯定会影响很多的士司机的收入。'

Like Baoding, "most online car hailing in Guangzhou are electric vehicles. Once the charging station is limited, it will affect our daily charging plan." a taxi driver in Guangzhou told future auto daily, "many electric vehicles need fast charging during the day. If the charging pile with high frequency is limited, it will certainly affect the income of many taxi drivers."

此外，快速灌注桩的高峰期在白天。一旦集中使用,势必在一些地区造成供电压力。

Moreover, the peak period of fast filling pile is in the daytime. Once it is used in a concentrated way, it is bound to cause power supply pressure in some areas.

2020年以来，在新基础设施东风的推动下，新能源汽车的能源补充成为热点业务，充电桩数量翻了一番。根据充电联盟的统计数据，截至2021年8月，国家充电基础设施累计拥有量同比增长52.3%，达到210.5万台，并且这个数字还在继续增长。

Since 2020, under the east wind of new infrastructure, energy supplement of new energy vehicles has become a hot business, and the number of charging piles has doubled. According to the statistics of the charging alliance, by August 2021, the cumulative ownership of national charging infrastructure had increased by 52.3% year-on-year to 2.105 million units, and this figure continued to grow.

资料来源：pexels

Source: pexels

即便如此，与工业电力和民用电力相比，纯电动汽车的耗电量对电网的影响很小。联合会秘书长崔东舒表示，8月份，电动汽车充电仅占总用电量的0.2%。"未来，即使电动汽车数量增加到6000万辆，其所占电力资源的比例也不到2%，属于低风险状态"。

Even so, compared with industrial power and civil power, the power consumption of pure electric vehicles has little impact on the power grid. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, said that in August, electric vehicle charging accounted for only 0.2% of the total power consumption. "In the future, even if the number of electric vehicles increases to 60 million, it will occupy less than 2% of power resources, which belongs to a low-risk state".

因此，深圳充电桩运营商崔伟判断，"限电对充电桩行业影响不大，目前限电对深圳影响不大。"新能源汽车行业受到政策鼓励和支持，收费基础设施属于民生保障范围。"运营商提供公共服务，应满足本部分的供电要求。"

Therefore, Cui Wei, the operator of Shenzhen charging pile, judged that "power restriction will not have a great impact on the charging pile industry, and at present, power restriction will not affect Shenzhen." the new energy vehicle industry is encouraged and supported by policies, and the charging infrastructure belongs to the scope of people's livelihood protection. "Operators provide public services, and the power supply of this part should be met."

崔伟认为，限电对新能源汽车行业的影响，更多的是在于"充电桩的供电可能多样化"。未来，充电桩行业将更快实现"光存储与充电"（分布式光伏发电、储能系统、充放电）的应用。

Cui Wei believes that the impact of power restriction on the new energy vehicle industry lies more in the supply of "the power of charging pile may be diversified". In the future, the charging pile industry will realize the application of "optical storage and charging" (distributed photovoltaic power generation, energy storage system, charge and discharge) faster.

集成光存储充电站集光伏发电、储能、充放电等功能于一体。它可以将太阳能转化为电能并储存在储能电池中，最终用于为新能源汽车充电。第一次模拟考试不影响电网，还可以通过储能系统调节峰谷电价差，降低日用电成本。目前，崔伟的公司正在开发原型和示范社区，"虽然一次性投资高，但从长远来看更符合行业发展趋势"。

The integrated optical storage and charging charging charging station integrates photovoltaic power generation, energy storage, charge and discharge and other functions. It can convert solar energy into electric energy and store it in the energy storage battery, which is finally used for charging new energy vehicles. The first mock exam will not affect the power grid, but also can regulate the peak valley electricity price difference through energy storage system, and reduce the daily electricity consumption cost. At present, Cui Wei's company is developing prototype and demonstration community, "although the one-time investment is high, it is more in line with the development trend of the industry in the long run".

新能源汽车市场是否急刹车？

Did the new energy vehicle market slam on the brakes?

车主争相上电，充电桩行业加速转型，新能源汽车市场如火如荼迎来大考验。

Owners panic to power up, the charging pile industry accelerates the transformation, and the new energy vehicle market in full swing ushers in a big test.

中国汽车行业专家陈光祖认为，如果动力煤短缺继续加剧，将率先影响新能源汽车的生产。"制造新能源汽车电池需要大量燃煤发电才能运行。如果燃煤发电供应不足，动力电池的容量将受到很大影响。"

Chen Guangzu, an expert in China's automobile industry, believes that if the shortage of power coal continues to increase, it will take the lead in affecting the production of new energy vehicles. "The manufacturing of new energy vehicle batteries requires a lot of coal-fired power generation to operate. If the supply of coal-fired power generation is insufficient, the capacity of power batteries will be greatly affected."

资料来源：pexels

Source: pexels

业内人士向《未来汽车报》透露，一些小型供应商停电，影响了部分模具的维修，影响了汽车企业的生产进度。

Insiders disclosed to the future auto daily that some small-scale suppliers had power outages, which affected the repair of some molds, thus affecting the production progress of auto enterprises.

此外，为了限制电力和生产，各地已发出通知，减少与新能源汽车相关的原材料产量。

In addition, in order to limit power and production, all localities have issued notices to reduce the output of raw materials related to new energy vehicles.

9月11日，云南省发改委下发《关于坚决做好能源消费双控工作的通知》，要求确保2021年9月至12月黄磷行业黄磷生产线月平均产量不超过8月的10%。作为生产磷酸铁的原料，黄磷的产量大大减少，价格飙升。受此影响，磷酸铁锂电池的市场交易价格也在逐步上涨，新能源汽车企业的生产成本也在进一步增加。

On September 11, Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the notice on resolutely doing a good job in the work related to dual control of energy consumption, which required to ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line in the yellow phosphorus industry from September to December 2021 should not exceed 10% of that in August. As the raw material for the production of iron phosphate, the output of yellow phosphorus has been greatly reduced and the price has soared. Affected by this, the market transaction price of lithium iron phosphate battery is also gradually rising, and the production cost of new energy vehicle enterprises is further increasing.

汽车行业分析师张翔表示，限电的原因是煤价上涨，这导致火电公司亏损。这一轮限电将导致电价和新能源汽车使用成本的上涨，这是新能源汽车发展的不利因素。

Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, said that the reason for power rationing was the rise in coal prices, which led to losses for thermal power companies. This round of power rationing will lead to the increase of electricity price and the use cost of new energy vehicles, which is an adverse factor for the development of new energy vehicles.

煤炭和电力短缺阻碍了各地新能源汽车企业在生产端的发展，也抑制了消费者在销售端的购买欲望。陈光祖说："充电桩的布局网络仍然不完善，断电的潜在风险无疑会让一些新能源汽车的潜在用户望而却步。"。

The shortage of coal and electricity has hindered new energy vehicle enterprises everywhere at the production end, and is restraining consumers' desire to buy at the sales end. "The layout network of charging piles is still imperfect, and the potential risk of switching off power will undoubtedly dissuade some potential users of new energy vehicles," Chen Guangzu said.

（应受访者要求，文本中的某些字符为笔名）

(at the request of the interviewee, some characters in the text are pseudonyms)

作者苏鹏勤张勇

Author Su pengqin Zhangyong

编辑：李欢欢

Editor: Li Huanhuan

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210929/20210929A0FET300.html

update time：2021-09-30 17:12:02