The performance did not exceed expectations, but Ningde era still reached 1.5 trillion

10月29日下午，宁德时报股价一度飙升至645元的历史高点，总市值超过1.5万亿元，在a股中排名第三。

On the afternoon of October 29, the share price of Ningde times once soared to a historical high of 645 yuan, with a total market value of more than 1.5 trillion yuan, ranking third in a shares.

来自市场的消息点燃了资本市场。据36kr报道，知情人士透露，特斯拉从宁德时报订购了45gwh磷酸铁锂电池。

A news from the market ignited the capital market. According to 36kr reports, people familiar with the matter disclosed that Tesla ordered 45gwh lithium iron phosphate battery from Ningde times.

这一消息超出资本市场预期的一点是特斯拉订购的磷酸铁锂电池数量。根据特斯拉3型的配置计算，45gwh铁锂电池足以装备约800000个3型。这意味着特斯拉有信心在未来销售80万辆标准寿命车型3和Y。

The point that this news exceeded the expectations of the capital market is the number of lithium iron phosphate batteries ordered by Tesla. According to the configuration calculation of Tesla Model 3, 45gwh iron lithium battery is enough to equip about 800000 model 3. This means that Tesla is confident to sell 800000 standard life models 3 and Y in the future.

当特斯拉的高速增长开始成为现实时，绑定到特斯拉的宁德时代的业绩增长几乎注定了。特斯拉首席执行官马斯克在上一次第三季度收益会议上还表示，特斯拉将在全球推广标准耐久型磷酸铁锂。

When Tesla's high growth began to materialize, the performance growth of Ningde era bound to Tesla was almost doomed. Tesla CEO musk also said at the previous Q3 earnings conference that Tesla will promote the standard endurance version of lithium iron phosphate around the world.

目前，宁德时报是全球最大的磷酸铁锂电池生产商，其最大的竞争对手LG化工和松下没有大规模的磷酸铁锂电池产能。比亚迪尚未进入主流电动车企业的供应链。在磷酸铁锂压三元锂的时刻，宁德时代拥有最大的市场机会。

At present, Ningde times is the world's largest producer of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its biggest competitors LG Chemical and Panasonic do not have large-scale capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries. BYD has not yet entered the supply chain of mainstream electric vehicle enterprises. At the moment when lithium iron phosphate is pressing ternary lithium, Ningde era has the greatest market opportunity.

表现没有超出预期

The performance did not exceed expectations

一位资本市场分析师表示："由于今年医药和消费类股表现冷淡，宁德时代已成为少数几个能够满足多个销售点需求的稳定股票之一。"。

"As the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors have been cold this year, Ningde era has become one of the few stable stocks that meet multiple outlets," said a capital market analyst.

万德数据显示，截至第三季度末，共有1171只基金持有宁德时报，总市值1186.41亿元；前"老大哥"茅台共有1128只基金，总市值约为1180.11亿元，与之差别不大。

According to the data from Wande, by the end of Q3, 1171 funds had held Ningde times, with a total market value of 118.641 billion yuan; Maotai, the former "big brother", had 1128 funds, with a total market value of about 118.011 billion yuan, which was not much different.

机构支持的估值不能用常识来判断。然而，宁德时代未来业绩的增长仍然是可以预测的。几天前，《宁德时报》发布了第三季度业绩数据。

The valuation supported by institutions cannot be judged by common sense. However, the growth of future performance in Ningde era is still predictable. A few days ago, Ningde times released Q3 performance data.

财务报告显示，宁德时代第三季度收入292.87亿元，同比增长130.73%；净利润32.67亿元，同比增长130.16%。今年前三季度，宁德时报实现总收入733.6亿元，同比增长132.7%；净利润77.5亿元，同比增长130.9%。

The financial report shows that the Q3 revenue of Ningde era reached 29.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.73%; The net profit was 3.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.16%. In the first three quarters of this year, Ningde times achieved a total revenue of 73.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.7%; The net profit was 7.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.9%.

上述人士表示："与高市值相比，这一业绩只能说在合理范围内，没有超出市场预期。"。

"Compared with its high market value, this performance can only be said to be within a reasonable range and does not exceed the expectations of the market," the aforementioned person said.

就市场份额而言，宁德时代仍然是世界第一。根据韩国市场研究机构SNE research的数据，今年1-8月宁德时代电池装机容量达到49.1gwh，市场份额从前7个月的27.1%上升到30.3%。

In terms of market share, Ningde era is still the first in the world. According to the data of SNE research, a South Korean market research institution, the installed capacity of battery in Ningde era reached 49.1gwh from January to August this year, and the market share rose to 30.3% from 27.1% in the previous seven months.

在第三季度数据中，值得关注的一点是宁德时代的成本。第三季度，锂电池上游原材料价格大幅上涨，宁德时代实现了运营成本的逐月下降，从第二季度的29.35%降至16.48%。

In Q3 data, one thing worth paying attention to is the cost of Ningde era. In Q3, where the price of raw materials in the upstream of lithium batteries increased sharply, Ningde era realized a month on month decrease in operating costs, from 29.35% in the second quarter to 16.48%.

毛利率方面，2021年前三季度，宁德时代毛利率为27.51%，同比增长0.1个百分点。虽然毛利率增长不明显，但与同行相比也有明显优势。但需要指出的是，在新能源汽车市场转向磷酸铁锂电池的同时，宁德时代的毛利率将面临下行风险，因为磷酸铁锂电池的单价低于三元锂电池。

In terms of gross profit margin, in the first three quarters of 2021, the gross profit margin of Ningde era was 27.51%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. Although the growth of gross profit margin is not obvious, it also has obvious advantages compared with peers. However, it should be mentioned that while the new energy vehicle market turns to lithium iron phosphate batteries, the gross profit margin of Ningde era will face downward risk, because the unit price of lithium iron phosphate batteries is lower than that of ternary lithium batteries.

虽然第三季度的成本已经得到控制，但宁德时代的后续仍需担心锂电池的上游原材料。

Although the cost of Q3 has been controlled, the follow-up of Ningde era still needs to worry about the upstream raw materials of lithium batteries.

上个月，《宁德时报》在非洲刚果民主共和国的一个锂项目Manono上投资了2.4亿美元（约15.52亿元人民币）。Manono项目是世界上最大的锂资源项目之一，预计锂资源储量为4亿吨。

Last month, Ningde times invested 240 million US dollars (about 1.552 billion yuan) in Manono, a lithium project in the Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa. Manono project is one of the largest lithium resource projects in the world, with an estimated lithium resource reserve of 400 million tons.

但这对于宁德时代来说只是沧海一粟。"宁德时代在上游的布局为时已晚。目前，主流锂矿已被分割。宁德时代只能找到天齐锂来购买原材料，"一位电力电池行业人士告诉霍尔夫。

But this is a drop in the bucket for the Ningde era. "The layout of Ningde era in the upstream is too late. At present, the mainstream lithium mines have been divided up. Ningde era can only find Tianqi lithium to buy raw materials," a person in the power battery industry told huolf.

该人士认为，宁德时代的动力电池业务已经告别了高毛利时代。未来动力电池在新能源汽车成本中的比重将进一步降低，这意味着宁德时代动力电池业务未来可能面临"增收不增利"的局面。

The person believes that the power battery business of Ningde era has bid farewell to the era of high gross profit. In the future, the proportion of power battery in the cost of new energy vehicles will be further reduced, which means that the power battery business of Ningde era may face the situation of "increasing income without increasing profit" in the future.

宁德时报还想出海吗？

Ningde times also want to go to sea?

尽管第三季度的收益没有透露更多信息。然而，宁德时代的官员和来自市场的信息已经勾勒出了其未来的轮廓——出海+储能。胡嗅觉表示，出海+储能将是宁德时代未来能否保持高速增长的关键。

Although Q3 earnings did not disclose more information. However, the official of Ningde era and the information from the market have outlined its future outline - going to sea + energy storage. According to Hu olfactory, going to sea + energy storage will be the key to whether Ningde era can maintain high growth in the future.

由于动力电池行业需要电池厂和汽车企业之间的深度捆绑，宁德时代在中国的市场份额多年来一直保持在50%，中国的"新客户"并不多。与特斯拉续签供货协议后，宁德时代与特斯拉的合作将不再局限于中国市场。

As the power battery industry needs the deep binding between battery factories and car enterprises, the market share of Ningde era in China has remained at 50% for many years, and there are not many "new customers" in China. After renewing the supply agreement with Tesla, the cooperation between Ningde era and Tesla will no longer be limited to the Chinese market.

从市场机遇和自身发展需要来看，宁德时代需要走出去。

In terms of market opportunities and self-development needs, Ningde era needs to go out.

据路透社报道，两周前，埃尔姆斯。O、 一家美国商用电动汽车制造商与宁德时报签署了一份截至2025年的供应协议。Elms发言人表示，两家公司正在探讨合作机制。宁德时报可能会在北美设立一家工厂，生产电池，并将电池运送到印第安纳州的elms工厂组装电池组。

Two weeks ago, according to Reuters, elms. O, an American manufacturer of commercial electric vehicles, signed a supply agreement with Ningde times up to 2025. Elms spokesman said that the two companies are exploring the cooperation mechanism. Ningde times may set up a factory in North America to produce battery cells and transport them to elms's factory in Indiana to assemble battery packs.

随后，《宁德时报》回应称将根据公司发展需要制定下一阶段的战略。

Subsequently, Ningde times responded to the news that it would formulate the strategy for the next stage according to the company's development needs.

然而，在胡嗅觉看来，美国和欧洲市场都是宁德时代需要征服的市场。目前，宁德时代在德国的工厂已接近投产，工厂将为宝马、PSA等汽车企业供货。在美国，宁德时代面临着更大的市场机遇。由于LG化学自燃，通用汽车不得不大规模召回汽车。松下并不打算生产磷酸铁锂电池，美国也缺乏完整的动力电池产业链。

However, in Hu olfactory's view, both the U.S. and European markets are the markets to be conquered in the Ningde era. At present, the plant of Ningde times in Germany is close to being put into operation, and the plant will supply BMW, PSA and other auto enterprises. In the United States, the Ningde era is facing greater market opportunities. Because of the spontaneous combustion of LG Chemical, GM had to recall vehicles on a large scale. Panasonic did not intend to make lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the United States lacked a complete power battery industry chain.

最近，《宁德时报》宣布进一步出海。据报道，宁德时报已将其业务打入韩国市场，并成为韩国汽车巨头现代起亚集团的合作伙伴。10月27日，宁德时报与现代移动签署技术许可及合作意向协议。报告显示，《宁德时报》将授权Mobis使用CTP（高效集团）技术，并支持在韩国乃至世界各地供应CTP相关电池产品。

Recently, Ningde Times announced its further move to sea. It is reported that Ningde times has penetrated its business into the Korean market and become a partner with Korean car giant Hyundai Kia group. On October 27, Ningde times and Hyundai Mobis signed a technology license and cooperation intention agreement. The report shows that Ningde times will authorize Mobis to use CTP (efficient group) technology and support the supply of CTP related battery products in Korea and even around the world.

有市场消息称，未来现代起亚集团e-gmp平台上的纯电动汽车可能会配备宁德时代动力电池。10月27日，《宁德时报》表示，没有关于相关合作的进一步信息，但CTP电池组技术将是公司未来的关键。

There is market news that in the future, pure electric vehicles on the e-gmp platform of Hyundai Kia group may be equipped with Ningde times power battery. "This cooperation belongs to technology going to sea." on October 27, Ningde Times said that there is no further information about the relevant cooperation, but CTP battery pack technology will be the key to the company's future.

除动力电池外，储能有望成为宁德时代的"第二条曲线"。2021年上半年，宁德时报储能业务收入46.93亿元，同比增长727%。近期，宁德时报与三峡集团、华电集团、国家能源投资集团等多家央企建立合作关系，将在新能源产业发展、智能能源建设、储能技术、标准体系建设等方面深化合作，国际业务拓展等。

In addition to power batteries, energy storage may be expected to become the "second curve" of Ningde era. In the first half of 2021, the energy storage business revenue of Ningde times was 4.693 billion, a year-on-year increase of 727%. Recently, Ningde times has established cooperation with a number of central enterprises, such as Three Gorges group, China Huadian Group Co., Ltd. and National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd., which will deepen cooperation in new energy industry development, smart energy construction, energy storage technology and standard system construction, international business expansion, etc.

现在，基金经理们帮助宁德时报搭建了一个良好的舞台。《宁德时报》仍需回答该剧是如何演唱的。

Now, the fund managers have helped Ningde times set up a good stage. Ningde times still needs to answer how the play is sung.

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20211030/20211030A08PVD00.html

update time：2021-10-31 11:25:04