Algorithmic real estate lost more than 2 billion in March! The real estate giant overturned: the price water is too deep for AI to grasp

明民风色来自敖飞寺

Mingmin fengse comes from aofei temple

量子比特报告官方账号QbitAI

Qubit report official account No. QbitAI

那太荒谬了！

That's ridiculous!

依靠一年前的一套算法，收入达到了30亿美元。一年后，这是同样的算法，但它造成了巨大的资金缺口，不得不裁员并变现手中的资产。

Relying on a set of algorithms a year ago, the revenue was $3 billion. A year later, it was the same algorithm, but it caused a large capital gap and had to lay off staff and realize the assets in hand.

出乎意料的是，房地产平台将是如此令人兴奋的人工智能算法。

Unexpectedly, the real estate platform will be so exciting with AI algorithm.

2018年4月，他们推出了名为zillow offers的人工智能房地产投机业务，

They launched an AI real estate speculation business called zillow offers in April 2018,

△ zillow旗下的所有品牌和企业

△ all brands and businesses under zillow

具体来说，就是买卖房屋，购买价格由人工智能给出。

Specifically, it is to buy and sell houses, and the purchase price is given by AI.

该公司将根据AI给出的估价从业主处购买该房屋，然后翻新该房屋并以更高的价格出售。

The company will buy the house from the owner according to the valuation given by AI, then renovate the house and sell it at an increased price.

俗称中间商，赚取差价。

Commonly known as middlemen earn price difference.

它的背后是一个名为zestimate的算法。

Behind it is an algorithm called zestimate.

它基于750万个统计和机器学习模型，通过分析数百个数据点来评估每个房地产的市场价值。开始时平均误差可控制在14%左右。

Based on 7.5 million statistical and machine learning models, it evaluates the market value of each real estate by analyzing hundreds of data points. The average error can be controlled at about 14% at the beginning.

一开始，zillow也花了很多精力为自己的算法呐喊。

At the beginning, zillow also spent a lot of effort in order to make a cry for his own algorithm.

早在2017年，他们就发布了zillow prize，这是kaggle上的一项房屋估价竞赛，奖金高达120万美元。

As early as 2017, they released zillow prize, a housing valuation competition on kaggle, with a bonus of up to $1.2 million.

进入2021年后，股价达到了202.94美元的峰值，几乎是2019年的六倍。

After entering 2021, the share price has reached the peak of $202.94, almost six times higher than that in 2019.

第一季度的总收入为12.18亿美元，比市场预期高出10%。

The total revenue in the first quarter was $1.218 billion, 10% higher than the market expectation.

第二季度，收入达到13亿美元，利润为5.38亿美元，同比增长92%。

In the second quarter, the revenue reached US $1.3 billion and the profit was US $538 million, a year-on-year increase of 92%.

当时，zillow的首席执行官rich Barton也表示，zillow的业务将继续加速，并在卖方市场非常受欢迎。

At that time, its CEO rich Barton also said that zillow offers business would continue to accelerate and be very popular in the seller's market.

与此同时，该公司将以28亿美元的价格出售7000套住房。

At the same time, the company will sell 7000 homes at a price of $2.8 billion.

据内部人士分析，zillow 93%的房产以低于购买价的价格上市。

According to insider analysis, 93% of zillow's properties are listed at a price lower than the purchase price.

我不能接受房地产市场

AI can't take the property market

为什么涨跌如此之快？

Why rise and fall so fast?

如果你想回答上述问题，你可能必须从美国房地产行业找到答案。

If you want to answer the above questions, you may have to find the answer from the American real estate industry.

事实上，zillow可以在短短几年内赚大钱，这不仅是因为它独特的商业模式，也因为美国房地产市场升温的东风。

In fact, zillow can make a lot of money in just a few years, not only because of its unique business model, but also because of the east wind of the warming U.S. real estate market.

根据trading economics数据，美国房价自2012年以来一直呈现稳定的上涨趋势，但涨幅仍然稳定。

According to trading economics data, U.S. House prices have shown a stable upward trend since 2012, but the increase is still stable.

2020，新冠状病毒肺炎爆发后，出现新一轮住宅热。

In 2020, after novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreaks, a new round of housing fever was raised.

根据联邦住房金融局（FHFA）8月31日发布的一份报告，截至6月的12个月内，美国房价指数上涨了创纪录的18.8%。

According to a report released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) on August 31, the U.S. House Price Index rose by a record 18.8% in the 12 months to June.

基于这样的背景，zillow的业务大幅增长也就不足为奇了。

Based on this background, it is not surprising that the business of zillow offers has increased greatly.

算法房地产投机已经成为一个新的行业

Algorithmic real estate speculation has become a new industry

看来AI真的无法把握房价的深层次。

It seems that AI really can't grasp the deep water of house prices.

然而，在美国，基于AI估价的房地产中介服务（如zillow offer）已经形成了一种固定模式，称为即时买家，称为"ibuyer"，可以理解为"闪购"。

However, in the United States, real estate intermediary services based on AI valuation such as zillow offer have formed a fixed model, called instant buyer, referred to as "ibuyer", which can be understood as "flash purchase".

这个过程是平台购买-持有-转换-转售。

The process is platform buy - hold - transform - resell.

通过AI估值模型，平台可以在一周内完成竞价并支付给业主，从而持续购买低估的房产。

With the AI valuation model, the platform can complete the bid and pay the owner in a week, so as to continuously buy undervalued properties.

挂牌时，AI还会自动评估房屋价值。

When listing, AI will also automatically evaluate the house value.

虽然平台直接买房并自行装修，风险很大，但利润也很高。

Although the platform directly buys a house and renovates it by itself, the risk is great, but the profit is also high.

与传统的房地产销售模式相比，整个"去中介"过程也可以大大节省交易周期（最快只有两周）。

Compared with the traditional real estate sales model, the whole "de intermediation" process can also greatly save the transaction cycle (only two weeks at the fastest).

ibuyer模型始于2014年成立的opendoor（于2020年12月上市，估值48亿美元）。

The ibuyer model started with opendoor, which was established in 2014 (listed in December 2020 with a valuation of $4.8 billion).

随后，offerpad（2015）、redfin（2017）和zillow offer（2018）等ibuyers也纷纷进入该网站，利用这一快速增长的"蓝海"技术。

Subsequently, ibuyers such as offerpad (2015), redfin (2017) and zillow offer (2018) also entered the site one after another, taking advantage of this rapidly growing "blue ocean" of technology.

参考链接：

Reference link:

[1]https://venturebeat.com/2021/07/14/zillow-utilizes-ai-data-to-revolutionize-how-people-sell-houses/

[1]https://venturebeat.com/2021/07/14/zillow-utilizes-ai-data-to-revolutionize-how-people-sell-houses/

[2]https://www.geekwire.com/2021/zillow-shutter-home-buying-business-lay-off-2k-employees-big-real-estate-bet-falters/

[2]https://www.geekwire.com/2021/zillow-shutter-home-buying-business-lay-off-2k-employees-big-real-estate-bet-falters/

[3]https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/qlilnf/n_zillows_nnbased_zestimate_leads_to_massive/

[3]https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/qlilnf/n_zillows_nnbased_zestimate_leads_to_massive/

[4]https://realtybiznews.com/zillow-values-the-white-house-at-397-7-million/98737518/

[4]https://realtybiznews.com/zillow-values-the-white-house-at-397-7-million/98737518/

[5]https://xueqiu.com/5876923686/163394579

[5]https://xueqiu.com/5876923686/163394579

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20211107/20211107A04F3V00.html

update time：2021-11-08 10:59:45