Can Huawei be "soft"? Clearly a hardware company, but want to learn from apple, power software

总体来看，华为的云优势明显。IDC数据显示，2020年中国大数据平台市场规模将达到677.3亿元，其中华为云市场占据首位。

On the whole, Huawei's cloud advantage is obvious. According to the data from IDC, the market scale of China's big data platform will reach 67.73 billion yuan in 2020, with Huawei's cloud market taking the first place.

"华为的云业务越来越重要，团队也在不断壮大"，该人士表示，近年来，华为的云业务有了很大的调整。这位头号领导人在三年内换了四次台，这显示了华为对云业务的期待。

"Huawei's cloud business is becoming more and more important, and its team has been growing." The person said that in recent years, Huawei's cloud business has been adjusted greatly. The number one leader has changed four times in three years, which shows Huawei's expectation for cloud business.

与华为云相比，鸿蒙操作系统的发布更受关注。在外界看来，鸿蒙的诞生是华为对制裁的抗争，但事实并非如此。

Compared with Huawei cloud, the release of Hongmeng operating system attracts more attention. In the eyes of the outside world, the birth of Hongmeng is Huawei's fight against sanctions, but it is not.

公开资料显示，在华为"2012诺亚方舟实验室"专家论坛上，任正非在回答时任华为终端操作系统开发部部长李金喜提出的问题时表示，"我们做终端操作系统是出于战略考虑。如果他们突然切断我们的食物，我们会傻吗？"

According to public information, at the expert forum of Huawei's "2012 Noah Ark laboratory", Ren Zhengfei said in response to the question raised by Li Jinxi, then head of Huawei's terminal operating system development department, "we are making terminal operating systems out of strategic considerations. If they suddenly cut off our food, would we be stupid?"

四年后的2016年，宏盟在消费业务软件部内正式成立项目，并开始投入研发。一年后，宏盟内核1.0完成了技术验证。2018年3月，宏盟正式批复华为消费业务项目，此后，宏盟研发正式提速。

Four years later, in 2016, Hongmeng officially set up a project within the software department of consumer business and began to invest in research and development. A year later, Hongmeng kernel 1.0 completed technical verification. Hongmeng officially approved the project of Huawei's consumer business in March 2018. Since then, Hongmeng's R & D has officially accelerated.

6月2日，华为正式推出"鸿蒙"操作系统，短短一周的装机容量就超过1000万用户。2021年3月，华为消费BG软件部总裁王成鲁在接受采访时表示：华为内部预测今年鸿蒙OS的销量为3亿台；前段时间，王成禄把目标提高到3.6亿；在最新的采访中，王成鲁表示，今年内将有4亿台设备升级到鸿蒙OS，不包括第三方设备。

On June 2, Huawei officially launched the Hongmeng operating system, with an installed capacity of more than 10 million users in just one week. In March 2021, Wang Chenglu, President of Huawei's consumer BG software department, said in an interview: Huawei's internal forecast for this year's Hongmeng OS is 300 million units; Some time ago, Wang Chenglu raised his target to 360 million; In the latest interview, Wang Chenglu said that 400 million devices will be upgraded to Hongmeng OS within this year, excluding third-party devices.

如果鸿蒙的装机容量足够大，就可以形成自己的生态，获得赶超苹果的机会。

If Hongmeng's installed capacity is large enough, it can form its own ecology and get the opportunity to keep up with apple.

尽管乔布斯说，在他的职业生涯中，他一直做的都是软件，但苹果也是一家软件公司。"iPod实际上是软件，尽管它有一个漂亮的外壳。虽然MAC也有一个漂亮的外壳，但它是OSX操作系统。iPhone也是软件。"

Although Jobs said that in his career, what he has done has always been software, apple is also a software company. "The iPod is actually software, although it has a beautiful shell. Although MAC also has a beautiful shell, it is OS X operating system. The iPhone is software, too. "

不过，从营收角度看，苹果也是一家不折不扣的硬件公司。2016年，苹果手机、PC等硬件产品陷入增长困境，正是苹果不断布局软件服务产品推动了整体业务增长。纵观苹果多年来软件服务业务的收入规模，2018年后增长继续加速。

However, from the perspective of revenue, apple is also a hardware company to the letter. In 2016, Apple's mobile phones, PC and other hardware products were in a growth dilemma, and it was Apple's continuous layout of software service products that drove the overall business growth. Looking at the revenue scale of Apple's software services business over the years, the growth continued to accelerate after 2018.

2021年第二季度，苹果财报显示，该季度苹果公司总收入达到896亿美元，软件服务收入达到169亿美元，比上一季度增加9亿美元，再次创下历史新高。目前，软件服务业务已成为苹果所有收入部门的第二大收入来源，仅次于iPhone。

In Q2 of 2021, Apple's financial report showed that Apple's total revenue in the quarter reached 89.6 billion US dollars, and software services reached 16.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 900 million US dollars over the previous quarter, reaching an all-time high again. At present, the software services business has become the second largest revenue source of all revenue sectors of apple, second only to the iPhone.

不久前，在苹果公司举办的wwdc2021大会上，苹果展示了多终端合作。鼠标可以在多台mac和ipad之间自由拖动，超越了设备限制。有人戏称，这与华为鸿蒙多设备合作的想法相似。

Not long ago, at the wwdc2021 conference held by apple, apple demonstrated multi terminal cooperation. The mouse can drag freely between multiple Macs and iPads, transcending device restrictions. Some people tease that this is similar to the idea of Huawei Hongmeng multi equipment co operation.

事实上，华为和苹果正变得越来越相似。硬件方面，他们都拥有智能终端和手机、PC、电视、手表等可穿戴设备。在软件方面，他们也有操作系统。此外，双方还开始介入汽车领域。

In fact, Huawei and apple are becoming more and more similar. In terms of hardware, they both have smart terminals and wearable devices such as mobile phones, PCs, TVs and watches. In terms of software, they also have operating systems. In addition, the two sides also began to intervene in the automotive field.

苹果曾计划在2015年造车，不断"挖人"组建专业团队，但至今进展甚微。早在2009年，华为就已经部署员工研发汽车相关业务。2014年后，华为车联网业务成立，相关研发开始提速。2019年5月，华为智能汽车解决方案事业部成立。

Apple had a plan to build a car in 2015, constantly "dig people" to form a professional team, but so far little progress has been made. As early as 2009, Huawei had already deployed staff to research and develop automobile related business. After 2014, Huawei's Internet of vehicles business was established, and related research and development began to speed up. In May 2019, Huawei intelligent vehicle solution Bu was established.

华为一再表示，其战略是"不造车，而是帮助汽车企业造好车"，从宣布的华为hi全栈智能汽车解决方案和针对汽车的新型车联网解决方案HMS来看，华为确实更注重服务和软件。

Huawei has repeatedly said that its strategy is "not to build cars, but to help car companies build good cars." From the announced Huawei hi full stack intelligent car solution and the new vehicle networking solution HMS for car, Huawei is really more focused on services and software.

"华为能做好服务和软件吗？"在这个问题上众说纷纭。对华为持乐观态度的人充满信心。毕竟，每年200亿美元的研发成本是实实在在的投资，华为有足够的决心去做。任正非在去年的一封内部信中表示，"公司不应该以简单的生存为目标，而应该有勇气把鸿蒙、坤鹏、林腾推向竞争。"

"Can Huawei do a good job in service and software?" There are many different opinions on this issue. People who are optimistic about Huawei are full of confidence. After all, the annual R & D cost of 20 billion US dollars is a real investment, and Huawei has enough determination to do it. In an internal letter last year, Ren Zhengfei said, "the company should not take simple survival as its goal, but should have the courage to push Hongmeng, Kunpeng, and linteng into competition."

不过，华为在年报中并未披露其在服务和软件方面的收入。业内人士分析，目前华为的服务和软件业务仍应以投资为主，要赶上苹果的营收还有很长的路要走。

However, Huawei did not disclose its revenue in services and software in the annual report. Industry analysis shows that Huawei's services and software business should still focus on investment at present, and there is still a long way to go to catch up with Apple's revenue.

华为的"软实力"

Huawei's "soft"

"在我们公司与华为宏盟、昆鹏生态的应用适配工作中，我们发现他们（华为）的员工比我们更积极主动。我们已经举行了几轮在线和离线会议，讨论应用程序适应问题。与其他操作系统相比，如果你现在去安卓和IOS，恐怕他们不会关注我们。"一位中小型创业软件工程师对《燃料金融》表示。

"In our company's application adaptation work with Huawei Hongmeng and Kunpeng ecology, we found that their (Huawei) staff are more active and proactive than us. We have held several rounds of online and offline meetings on application adaptation. Compared with other operating systems, if you go to Android and IOS now, I'm afraid they won't pay any attention to us. " A small and medium-sized entrepreneurial software engineer told fuel finance.

6月2日晚，harmony OS 2.0正式发布。自2019年8月9日红盟系统首次亮相以来，红盟用了两年时间从梦想走向现实。事实上，早在2012年，华为就有了内部操作系统的B计划，以防突然被外界"饿死"。2018年3月，宏盟批准了华为消费业务项目。两个月后，鸿蒙内核2.0版被用于tee。

On the evening of June 2, the official version of harmony OS 2.0 was released. Since the debut of Hongmeng system on August 9, 2019, Hongmeng has gone from dream to reality in two years. In fact, as early as 2012, Huawei had a plan B for its internal operating system, in case it was suddenly "starved" by the outside world. In March 2018, Hongmeng approved the project of Huawei's consumer business. Two months later, Hongmeng kernel version 2.0 was used for tee.

鸿蒙操作系统负责人王成鲁曾在接受采访时表示，"华为做鸿蒙很长时间了，不是因为制裁。只是没有制裁，洪孟就不能提速，更别说出来了。"

Wang Chenglu, head of Hongmeng's operating system, once said in an interview, "Huawei has been Hongmeng for a long time, not because of sanctions. It's just that without sanctions, Hongmeng can't speed up, let alone come out. "

与Android类似，鸿蒙也构建在Linux上。然而，Android是一个宏内核，由一堆底层特权模式的核心代码紧密结合在一起。核心代码比较长，不易随意分解和排列，导致体系结构的灵活性较差。尤其是手机、平板电脑、电视等硬件的适配需要翻译"虚拟机"，效率低下。

Hongmeng, similar to Android, is also built on Linux. However, Android is a macro kernel, which is closely combined by a pile of core code of underlying privilege mode. The core code is long, and it is not easy to disassemble and arrange randomly, which leads to poor flexibility of the architecture. In particular, the adaptation of mobile phone, tablet, TV and other hardware requires the translation of "virtual machine", which is inefficient.

在今年6月10日举行的华为HMS全球应用创新大赛上，华为高级副总裁兼董事陈立芳表示，HMS生态与开发者的关系是"树根关系"一棵参天大树必须有根。"她鼓励全球开发者加入进来。基于华为完整的技术解决方案支持，"一点接入，全球服务"。

At the Huawei HMS global application innovation competition held on June 10 this year, Chen Lifang, senior vice president and director of Huawei, said that the relationship between HMS ecology and developers is tree and root. "A towering tree must have its root." she encouraged global developers to join in. Based on Huawei's complete technical solution support, "one point access, global service".

陈丽芳说："同事给我讲了一个开发商的故事，给我留下了深刻的印象。去年，在华为的应用市场上，一款名为"划线"的字符识别软件非常流行。最初，这款应用程序是开发者专门为热爱阅读的女友打造的，但一直在不断完善，包括通过华为平台提供的OCR字符识别能力。这一应用不断完善，越来越普及。目前已安装近1400万次。"更出乎意料的是，这个原本为读者设计的软件，也"出乎意料地"受到了视障群体的欢迎。通过"拍照—认词—读结果"的形式，让视障人士在工作和生活中更容易认识各种平面词，"百花"还获得了去年HMS全球应用创新大赛的明星创意奖。

Chen Lifang said, "my colleague told me a story about a developer, which impressed me deeply. Last year, in Huawei's application market, a character recognition software called "line drawing" was very popular. Originally, the app was specially built by the developer for his girlfriend who loves reading, but it has been continuously polished, including the OCR character recognition capability provided through Huawei's platform. This application has been continuously improved and has become more and more popular. At present, it has been installed for nearly 14 million times. " What's more unexpected is that this software, originally designed for readers, is also "unexpectedly" welcomed by the visually impaired groups. Through the form of "taking photos - recognizing words - reading results", the visually impaired people can more easily know all kinds of plane words in their work and life" "Baihua" also won the star Creative Award of last year's HMS global application innovation competition.

事实上，华为的"软"能力不仅体现在鸿蒙操作系统上，也体现在汽车服务、云计算等业务上。

In fact, Huawei's "soft" capability is not only reflected in Hongmeng operating system, but also in auto services, cloud computing and other businesses.

去年11月，华为汽车业务展开前哨战，通过推出mate 40系列手机进入汽车行业。华为一再表示，它不生产汽车，只专注于ICT技术，帮助汽车企业生产好车。也就是说，华为不生产整车，而是专注于智能汽车产业相关的技术、服务和解决方案，是博世等汽车零部件行业的一级供应商（汽车工厂一级供应商）。

In November last year, Huawei's auto business launched an outpost battle to enter the auto industry through the launch of mate 40 series mobile phones. Huawei has repeatedly said that it does not build cars, but only focuses on ICT technology to help car companies build good cars. In other words, Huawei does not build complete vehicles, but focuses on the technologies, services and solutions related to the intelligent automobile industry, and is a tier 1 (first tier supplier of automobile factory) in the auto parts industry like Bosch.

同时，与博世传统的动力、ABS（防抱死制动系统）等优势不同，华为专注于增量组件，即智能网络化电动汽车，与Tier 1开展有竞争力的差异化服务，具体而言，华为和博世在增量组件领域展开竞争，并可与博世等一级厂商在智能驾驶计算平台领域展开合作。

At the same time, different from Bosch's traditional power, ABS (anti lock braking system) and other advantages, Huawei focuses on incremental components, that is, intelligent networked electric vehicles, and develops competitive differentiated services with Tier 1. Specifically, Huawei and Bosch compete in the field of incremental components, and can cooperate with Tier 1 manufacturers such as Bosch in the field of intelligent driving computing platform.

今年4月，华为与北汽高端品牌奇虎联合推出智能纯电动汽车北汽奇虎阿尔法s（华为hi版）。华为为机虎提供了全套电动底盘，包括ads、鸿蒙OS智能连接座舱、智能互联网、智能车云等30多个智能组件。

In April this year, Huawei and BAIC's high-end brand Jihu jointly launched the intelligent pure electric car, BAIC Jihu alpha s (Huawei hi version). Huawei has provided a complete set of electric chassis for Jihu, including more than 30 intelligent components, such as ads, Hongmeng OS intelligent connected cockpit, intelligent Internet, intelligent car cloud, etc.

其中，华为hi的智能驾驶舱、智能驾驶和智能车辆控制三大计算平台分别对应于HOS（智能驾驶舱操作系统）、AOS（智能驾驶操作系统）和Vos（智能车辆控制操作系统）。在新车造势和软件定义汽车的时代，有业内人士认为，华为hi其实可以理解为汽车行业的Android操作系统。

Among them, Huawei hi's three computing platforms, intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving and intelligent vehicle control, correspond to HOS (Intelligent cockpit operating system), AOS (intelligent driving operating system) and Vos (intelligent vehicle control operating system) respectively. In the era of new car building forces and software defined cars, some people in the industry think that, Huawei hi can actually be understood as the Android operating system in the automotive industry.

然而，近年来，华为云一直处于动荡之中。2020年1月，cloud&AI升级为华为第四大BG。然而，今年4月2日，华为宣布取消云与AI BG，改名为"云事业部"。

However, in recent years, Huawei cloud has been in turmoil. In January 2020, cloud & AI was upgraded to Huawei's fourth largest BG. However, on April 2 this year, Huawei announced to cancel cloud & AI BG and change its name to "cloud bu".

4月9日，有媒体报道华为内部宣布华为云最新人事调整：华为董事长许志军被任命为华为云董事长，华为消费BG CEO于成东被任命为华为云CEO。

On April 9, some media reported that Huawei announced the latest personnel adjustment of Huawei cloud internally: Xu Zhijun, chairman of Huawei, was appointed chairman of Huawei cloud, and Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei consumer BG, was appointed CEO of Huawei cloud.

5月18日，华为发布内部文件，对人事进行多项调整。于成东的华为云CEO职位被撤换，取而代之的是新成立的智能汽车解决方案事业部CEO，而原BG消费者CEO职位依然保留。张平安被任命为华为云CEO。

On May 18, Huawei issued an internal document to make a number of personnel adjustments. Yu Chengdong's position as CEO of Huawei cloud was removed and replaced by the newly established Bu CEO of smart car solutions, while the original position of BG CEO of consumer remained. Zhang Ping'an was appointed CEO of Huawei cloud.

在华为的组织结构中，BG（业务组）高于bu（业务单元）。华为云的重要性降低了吗？面对外界的质疑，许志军在全球分析师大会上回应称，加强软件能力，减少对芯片的依赖，提高软件和服务的比重是华为未来的战略之一。同时，云计算的核心也是软件。华为云的不断调整是为了增强软件能力，提升软件收入的增长。

In Huawei's organizational structure, BG (business group) is higher than bu (business unit). Has the importance of Huawei cloud been reduced? In the face of doubts from the outside world, Xu Zhijun responded at the global analysts conference that strengthening software capabilities, reducing dependence on chips, and increasing the proportion of software and services is one of Huawei's future strategies. At the same time, the core of cloud computing is also software. The continuous adjustment of Huawei cloud is to strengthen software capabilities and enhance the growth of software revenue.

"华为非常重视云计算业务。华为的云团队不断壮大，国际化进程也很快，"一位接近华为的人士表示，华为的云业务相对成熟，而于成东擅长开拓新市场。因此，把他从云业务转到汽车业务，可以充分发挥他的能力。此外，云和车都是服务和软件业务，华为的战略重点没有转移。

"Huawei attaches great importance to cloud computing business. Huawei's cloud team has been growing and its internationalization has also made rapid progress." A person close to Huawei said that Huawei's cloud business is relatively mature, while Yu Chengdong is good at developing new markets. Therefore, transferring him from cloud business to car business can give full play to his ability. In addition, both cloud and car are services and software businesses, and Huawei's strategic focus has not shifted.

严重硬件伤害

Serious hardware injury

在去年底的内部会议上，任正非明确表示，华为正在从"硬件先进公司"向"软件先进公司"转型。

At the internal meeting at the end of last year, Ren Zhengfei made it clear that Huawei was transforming from a "hardware advanced company" to a "software advanced company".

众所周知，华为是从通信设备起步的。硬件不仅是华为的基因，也是它的基础。无论是5g还是手机，华为此前广受好评的产品都是硬件。

As we all know, Huawei started from communication equipment. Hardware is not only Huawei's gene, but also its foundation. Whether it's 5g or mobile phones, Huawei's previously acclaimed products are hardware.

华为成立于1987年，从交换机销售代理开始，再做自己的研发，逐步发展成为通信设备巨头。资料显示，2010年，华为成为仅次于爱立信的全球第二大通信设备制造商。2013年，华为收入超过爱立信，成为全球最大的电信设备供应商。

Huawei was founded in 1987, starting from the switch sales agent, and then doing its own research and development, and gradually developed into a communications equipment giant. According to the data, in 2010, Huawei became the second largest communication equipment manufacturer in the world after Ericsson. In 2013, Huawei surpassed Ericsson in revenue and became the largest telecom equipment supplier in the world.

业内人士表示，在3G之前，通信技术和通信设备都被国外企业垄断。直到华为等公司崛起，中国才逐渐有了话语权。在4G时代，我们几乎是一样的。当我们进入5g时代，我们的国家开始与超级用户作战。目前，我国已建成基站81.9万个，占全球5g基站的70%。

Industry insiders said that before 3G, communication technology and communication equipment were monopolized by foreign enterprises. It was not until the rise of Huawei and other companies that China gradually had the right to speak. In the 4G era, we are almost the same. When we enter the 5g era, our country begins to fight against super. At present, China has completed the construction of 819000 base stations, accounting for 70% of the world's 5g base stations.

华为在全球通信设备市场也扮演着重要角色。任正非曾自信地表示，全球超过135个国家将选择华为的5g设备。遗憾的是，华为通信设备全球化的良好发展势头被美国恶意压制。

Huawei also plays an important role in the global communication equipment market. Ren Zhengfei once confidently stated that more than 135 countries in the world would choose Huawei's 5g equipment. Unfortunately, the good development momentum of Huawei's communication equipment globalization has been maliciously suppressed by the United States.

在一轮又一轮的制裁之下，华为通信设备的海外业务遭受了很大的损失。例如，许多国家不再购买华为的设备；另外，华为5g基站核心芯片采用7Nm工艺技术，不能继续由OEM生产。中国的情况更好。据报道，包括运营商在内的B类业务还有其他选择，华为的库存可能持续数年。

Under the round after round of sanctions, Huawei's overseas business of communication equipment has suffered a lot. For example, many countries no longer purchase Huawei's equipment; In addition, the core chip of Huawei 5g base station adopts 7Nm process technology, and can not continue to be manufactured by OEM. The situation in China is better. It is reported that there are alternatives for to B business including operators, and Huawei's stock up can last for several years.

以手机为代表的消费业务受到的伤害更为严重。此前，于成东在朋友圈表示："不到两年时间，美国对华为实施了四轮制裁，一轮更为恶毒，这使得华为的消费业务陷入极端困境，无法发货。"

The consumer business represented by mobile phones is more seriously injured. Previously, Yu Chengdong said in his circle of friends: "in less than two years, the United States has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Huawei, one round more vicious, which has pushed Huawei's consumer business into extreme difficulties and made it impossible to deliver goods."

2003年，华为成立了手机业务部，但在2011年之前，华为走的是定制手机的路线。2011年之后，华为开始推出自己的手机品牌，并在2020年第二季度排名全球第一。根据canalys公布的数据，华为以微弱优势击败三星，首次成为季度全球出货量冠军。

In 2003, Huawei had set up a mobile phone business department, but before 2011, Huawei followed the route of customized mobile phones. After 2011, Huawei began to launch its own mobile phone brand, and in Q2 of 2020, it ranked first in the world. According to the data released by canalys, Huawei beat Samsung by a narrow margin and became the quarterly champion of global shipping volume for the first time.

在过去的20年里，华为的手机业务经历了从"中华联库"到"华美ov"，再到超越三星和苹果的过程。因此，消费类BG业务的收入超过所有其他BG业务，贡献了华为总收入的一半以上。

In the past 20 years, Huawei's mobile phone business has gone from "Zhonghua Lianku" to "huami ov", and then to surpassing Samsung and apple. As a result, the revenue of consumer BG business exceeds that of all other BG businesses, contributing more than half of Huawei's total revenue.

在海外市场，华为手机无法继续使用谷歌服务，这严重影响了用户体验，导致欧洲市场份额急剧下降。据了解，谷歌移动服务（GMS）包括云服务和一系列应用，如商店、电子邮件、搜索、地图、视频应用等，没有GMS，很多应用可能无法正常工作。

In the overseas market, Huawei's mobile phone can not continue to use Google services, which seriously affects the user experience, leading to a sharp decline in the European market share. It is understood that Google Mobile Service (GMS) includes cloud services and a series of applications, such as stores, email, search, maps, video applications, etc. many applications may not work normally without GMS.

国内市场也不能幸免。由于受到制裁，特别是去年9月14日以来芯片供应出现障碍和困难后，华为和荣耀严重缺货，一度放弃35%-40%的市场份额。

The domestic market is not immune. Because of the sanctions, especially after the obstacles and difficulties in chip supply since September 14 last year, Huawei and glory were seriously out of stock and once gave up 35-40% of the market share.

换句话说，硬件业务占华为总收入的90%左右，尤其是消费业务。这也是华为的摇钱树，华为每年可以在研发上投资200亿美元。一旦相关收入下降，将对华为的整体战略布局产生很大影响。

In other words, the hardware business accounts for about 90% of Huawei's total revenue, especially the consumer business. It is also Huawei's cash cow, and Huawei can invest $20 billion in R & D every year. Once the related revenue declines, it will have a great impact on Huawei's overall strategic layout.

"华为的硬件不能再由上游厂商提供。它只能做软件服务。这是最好的方法之一。一位业内人士对《天然气金融》表示："它不能再运营了。"

"Huawei's hardware can no longer be supplied by upstream manufacturers. It can only do software services. This is one of the best ways. It can't be operated any more," an industry source told gas finance

汽车行业人士张翔在接受《燃料金融》记者采访时表示，华为涉足汽车行业的做法是众所周知的，华为需要找到一个新的摇钱树。智能车集成的解决方案涉及到汽车行业的一些核心技术，利润率和价值确实很高。据华为BG总裁严力达透露，未来汽车业务将为华为贡献500亿美元的收入。

Zhang Xiang, a person in the auto industry, told fuel finance that Huawei's involvement in the auto industry is well understood, and Huawei needs to find a new cash cow. The solution of intelligent vehicle integration involves some core technologies of the automobile industry, and the profit margin and value are indeed high. According to Yan Lida, President of Huawei BG, the auto business will contribute $50 billion to Huawei's revenue in the future.

温柔不容易

It's not easy to be soft

在外界看来，华为的服务和软件可以像苹果一样形成一个完整的生态系统。据了解，苹果的软件服务业务包括销售消费云服务、媒体、音乐、电视、应用商店等软件。截至2021年第二季度，苹果平台上的付费用户已超过6.6亿。

In the eyes of the outside world, Huawei's services and software can form a complete ecosystem just like Apple's. It is understood that Apple's software services business includes sales of consumer cloud services, media, music, TV, app stores and other software. As of Q2 in 2021, there are more than 660 million paid users on Apple platform.

"华为的软硬件生态与苹果不同。苹果的软件和硬件都是自己的，可以是闭环的；由于手机自主制造能力的限制，华为只能多谈开放，与软件服务对接。换句话说，华为需要吸引更多的合作伙伴，而苹果则不需要。"

"Huawei's software and hardware ecology is different from Apple's. Apple's software and hardware are all its own and can be closed-loop," an industry source told fuel finance; Due to the limitation of mobile phone independent manufacturing capacity, Huawei can only talk more about openness and connect with software services. In other words, Huawei needs to attract more partners, while Apple doesn't"

芯片难点在于技术，但宏盟软件服务业务的发展不在于技术本身，而在于市场推广和生态建设。华为一位员工也表示，从内部来看，宏盟操作系统有"赚钱"的前景，但更大的业务压力在前端（市场）。

The chip difficulty lies in technology, but the development of Hongmeng software service business is not in the technology itself, but in the market promotion and ecological construction. A Huawei employee also said that from the internal point of view, Hongmeng operating system has a "money" prospect, but more business pressure is on the front end (market).

生态不仅包括开发者，还包括手机等其他硬件厂商。一位开发商对燃油金融表示，鸿蒙的缺点显而易见。现在开发商太少，社区太小，问题和案例太少，开发遇到阻力。

Ecology includes not only developers, but also other hardware manufacturers such as mobile phones. A developer told fuel finance that Hongmeng's shortcomings are obvious. Now there are too few developers, too small communities, too few problems and cases, and there is resistance to development.

当开发者选择平台时，如果考虑平台用户的数量，则主要考虑商业价值；如果开发商在平台上考虑开发商的数量，那是因为成本考虑。开发商表示，开发商越多，前人积累的经验就越多，开发成本也就越低。如果开发商数量太少，一旦遇到问题，很可能难以解决，这将增加开发商的开发成本。

"When developers choose a platform, if they consider the number of platform users, it is mainly for the consideration of commercial value; If developers consider the number of developers on the platform, it is because of cost considerations. " The developer said that the more developers there are, the more experience the predecessors have accumulated, and the lower the cost of development. If the number of developers is too small, once problems are encountered, it is likely to be difficult to solve, which will increase the development cost of developers.

公开数据显示，到2020年，苹果IOS的开发者将达到2800万，Android生态系统的开发者将达到5900万。至于华为鸿蒙开发商的数量，截至2021年5月底，注册开发商仅超过400万。

According to public data, in 2020, there will be 28 million developers for Apple IOS and 59 million developers for Android ecosystem. As for the number of Huawei Hongmeng developers, as of the end of May 2021, the number of registered developers only exceeded 4 million.

另一个维度也反映了鸿蒙与IOS、Android之间的生态鸿沟。2021年第一季度，Android应用商店拥有约348万个应用程序，苹果应用商店拥有约222万个IOS应用程序。华为只有13.4万个移动应用程序。

Another dimension also reflects the ecological gap between Hongmeng and IOS and Android. In Q1 2021, the Android App store has about 3.48 million apps, and the Apple App store has about 2.22 million IOS apps. Huawei has only 134000 mobile applications.

"苹果年度开发者大会为开发者解释了两个问题：平台生态技术和盈利能力有多强大。华为强调1+8+n（全场智慧生活策略），但说服力不够。华为必须拿出更多的商业应用场景来说服开发者。"开发商说。

"Apple's annual Developer Conference explains two issues for developers: how powerful platform ecological technology and profitability are. Huawei emphasizes 1 + 8 + n (full scene Smart Life strategy), but its persuasion ability is not good enough. Huawei must come up with more commercial application scenarios to persuade developers. " Said the developer.

另一位开发者告诉fuel finance，鸿蒙定位于互联场景，其独特的功能确实可以驱动开发者开发专属应用，"但更多的是在Android中开发鸿蒙"

Another developer told fuel finance that Hongmeng is positioned in the interconnection scenario, and its unique features can indeed drive developers to develop an exclusive application" But it's more about developing Hongmeng in Android. "

因此，除了教育和会议场景之外，鸿蒙还需要找到更多更适合自己的应用场景。只有独特的应用场景才能进一步刺激开发者加入。

Therefore, Hongmeng needs to find more and more suitable application scenarios besides education and conference scenarios. Only unique application scenarios can further stimulate developers to join.

今年年初，鸿蒙运营系统相关负责人王成鲁在接受采访时表示，16%的市场份额是鸿蒙生态繁荣的分水岭，鸿蒙将跨越这道屏障。华为的最新目标是，到2021年底，配备鸿蒙操作系统的设备数量将达到4亿台。据相关数据显示，华为在全球拥有约7亿部智能手机，也就是说，超过一半的设备需要升级宏盟系统。

At the beginning of this year, Wang Chenglu, the person in charge of Hongmeng's operating system, said in an interview that 16% of the market share is a watershed for Hongmeng's ecological prosperity, and Hongmeng will cross this barrier. Huawei's latest goal is that by the end of 2021, the number of devices equipped with Hongmeng operating system will reach 400 million. According to relevant data, Huawei has about 700 million smart phones in the world, that is to say, more than half of the devices need to upgrade Hongmeng system.

"16%是一项几乎不可能完成的任务，"电信分析师付亮（音译）告诉《燃料金融》（fuel finance）。即使国产华为手机可以升级，红盟手机在国内市场的比重也只有10%左右，因此，对于红盟来说，东南亚和非洲市场尤为重要。

"16% is a task that is almost impossible to accomplish," Fu Liang, a telecom analyst, told fuel finance. Even if the domestic Huawei mobile phones can be upgraded, the proportion of Hongmeng mobile phones in the domestic market is only about 10% Therefore, for Hongmeng, the Southeast Asian and African markets are particularly important.

截至2021年5月，全球操作系统IOS占26.74%，Android占71.72%，其他类别仅占0.81%。有业内人士认为，8%是操作系统的生死线。华为可以通过更换电池和其他服务来延长现有手机的使用寿命。在升级了所有应该升级的用户后，再加上新兴市场和新硬件企业，可以通过8%的生死线，但16%的用户能否通过生死线还很难判断。

As of May 2021, the global operating system IOS accounted for 26.74%, Android accounted for 71.72%, and other categories accounted for only 0.81%. Some people in the industry think that 8% is the life and death line of the operating system. Huawei can extend the service life of existing mobile phones by replacing batteries and other services. After upgrading all the users that should be upgraded, plus emerging markets and new hardware enterprises, it can pass the life and death line of 8%, but it is hard to judge whether 16% can pass the life and death line.

前述业内人士表示，华为未来仍面临很大挑战。如果不能继续生产新手机，现有用户将逐渐转向其他手机品牌。目前，小米、oppo、维梧等手机品牌都不愿意搭载鸿蒙系统，因为对于这些手机厂商来说，如果国产操作系统转向鸿蒙，如何处理与美国芯片供应商的关系，谷歌和安卓将是一个非常棘手的问题。

The aforementioned industry insiders said that Huawei still has a big challenge in the future. If it can't continue to produce new mobile phones, the existing users will gradually turn to other mobile phone brands. At present, Xiaomi, oppo, vivo and other mobile phone brands are not willing to carry Hongmeng system, because for these mobile phone manufacturers, if the domestic operating system turns to Hongmeng, how to deal with the relationship with us chip suppliers, Google and Android will be a very difficult problem.

6月4日，华为表示，它曾两次将洪梦的基本能力捐赠给OpenAtom开源基金会，形成了OpenOrthor开源项目。这意味着其他手机厂商可以根据鸿蒙开源项目构建自己的操作系统。

On June 4, Huawei said that it had donated Hongmeng's basic capabilities to the open atom open source foundation twice, forming the openharmony open source project. This means that other mobile phone manufacturers can build their own operating systems according to Hongmeng open source project.

健身企业创始人李梅告诉《燃气财经》记者，不久前，她与智能屏进行了一次业务洽谈。当她谈到能否用鸿蒙操作系统解决手机和智能屏的跨屏问题时，智能屏厂商非常犹豫，"他们担心自己的产品在使用鸿蒙后是否会被禁止（海外市场）"

Li Mei, founder of fitness enterprise, told gas finance that not long ago, she had a business negotiation with a smart screen. When she talked about whether she could use Hongmeng operating system to solve the cross screen problem of mobile phones and smart screens, the smart screen manufacturer was very hesitant" They are worried about whether their products may be banned (overseas markets) after using Hongmeng. "

洪孟的路不好走，汽车服务也很难。

Hongmeng's road is not easy to go, and automobile service is also difficult.

目前，华为与celis合作的电动车sF5已经进入华为授权门店，进入订单交付阶段。不过，华为与北汽合作的华为hi版北汽冀虎阿尔法s的实际交付时间可能在今年第四季度。

At present, the electric vehicle sF5, which Huawei cooperates with celis, has entered Huawei's authorized stores and entered the order delivery stage. However, the actual delivery time of Huawei hi version of Beiqi Jihu alpha s, which Huawei cooperates with BAIC, may be in Q4 this year.

没有足够大的合作伙伴或用户组，就意味着没有足够的驱动数据。数据是自动驾驶的关键和基础，庞大的数据量能不断提高车辆识别和判断的能力。中汽协秘书长助理、技术部部长王耀增在接受《经济观察报》记者采访时表示，"数据已经成为汽车企业最大的资产"。如果我们不能与领先的汽车厂商合作，这部分数据的积累将非常缓慢，这将成为华为汽车服务软件能力提升的障碍。

Without a large enough partner or user group, it means that there is not enough driving data. Data is the key and foundation of automatic driving, huge amount of data can continuously improve the ability of vehicle identification and judgment. In an interview with the economic observer, Wang yaozeng, assistant secretary general and Minister of Technology Department of China Automobile Association, said that "data has become the biggest asset of automobile enterprises". If we can't cooperate with leading automobile manufacturers, the accumulation of this part of data will be very slow, which will become a barrier to the improvement of Huawei's automobile service software capability.

一般来说，汽车的最短迭代周期需要2到3年，是手机的3倍，短期内不会产生可观的利润。

Generally speaking, the shortest iteration cycle of automobile takes two to three years, which is three times of that of mobile phone, and it will not produce considerable profits in the short term.

同样，云计算业务暂时也不能"赚大钱"。根据阿里巴巴2021财年第三季度财报，阿里云营收达到161亿元，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润为2400万元。这是阿里云自2009年成立以来首次实现盈亏平衡，阿里云智能总裁张剑锋表示："云计算是阿里巴巴的长期战略。我们已经投资了11年。未来，我们将继续加大科技投入，进一步发展数字产业。"

Similarly, the cloud computing business can not "make a lot of money" for the time being. According to Alibaba's financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2021, Alibaba cloud's revenue reached 16.1 billion yuan, and its adjusted EBITA profit was 24 million yuan. This is the first time that Alibaba cloud has achieved break even since its establishment in 2009. Zhang Jianfeng, President of Alibaba cloud intelligence, said, "cloud computing is Alibaba's long-term strategy. We have invested in it for 11 years. In the future, we will continue to invest more in technology and further develop digital industry."

严力达还明确表示，华为云不走烧钱模式，其利润和规模必须均衡发展。因此，华为云要想获得可观的收入，还需要长期的资金和资源投入。

Yan Lida also made it clear that Huawei cloud does not follow the money burning mode, and its profit and scale must develop in a balanced way. Therefore, Huawei cloud still needs long-term capital and resource investment if it wants to obtain considerable revenue.

中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究所首席研究员张莫南在接受央视采访时表示，华为目前采用的是开放硬件和开放软件的模式。也就是说，将云作为未来软件开发的系统终端，将为华为未来开辟一条新的轨道。然而，目前，即使是云创新也离不开数据库和应用软件开发的支持。目前，我国基础软件和工业软件都面临着非常严重的瓶颈问题。世界上主要的数据库、操作系统和三个全球开源基金会都被美国垄断。今后，我们要突破工业软件和基础软件的瓶颈，还是有很长的路要走。

In an interview with CCTV, Zhang Monan, chief researcher of the US Europe Institute of the China Center for international economic exchanges, said that Huawei currently adopts the open hardware and open software mode. In other words, taking the cloud as the system terminal for future software development will open up a new track for Huawei in the future. However, at present, even cloud innovation can not do without the support of database and application software development. At present, China's basic software and industrial software are facing a very serious neck problem. The world's major databases, operating systems, and three global open source foundations are monopolized by the United States. In the future, we want to break through the neck of industrial software and basic software, Or a very long way to go.

参考资料：

reference material:

对话华为王军：华为制造汽车。什么是误解应该澄清。资料来源：财经

Dialogue with Wang Jun of Huawei: Huawei makes cars. What is misunderstood should be clarified. Source: finance and economics

与华为鸿蒙掌舵人王成禄对话：真正的第一是自己手中的第一，图片来源：晚报

Dialogue with Wang Chenglu, the helmsman of Huawei Hongmeng: the real first is the first in your own hands, source: later latepost

洪孟详解，图片来源：国际金融报

Hong Meng in detail, source: International Finance News

"新车制造力量让华为走"，图片来源：字母表

"New car making forces let Huawei go", source: Alphabet list

*图片来自视觉中国。应受访者要求，李梅、刘鹏均为化名

*The picture comes from visual China. At the request of the interviewees, Li Mei and Liu Peng are pseudonyms

Link：https://new.qq.com/omn/20210630/20210630A01JTW00.html

update time：2021-06-30 18:57:19